The expectation ledger
The 1985 season, against expectation
Every game of 1985scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2000
Market Brier
0.1991
Longest odds beaten
13.7%
New Orleans Saints
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1985.
Show all 28 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1985 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985-09-08 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 19.4% | 21-28 |
| 1985-09-08 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears | 73.2% | 28-38 |
| 1985-09-08 | Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals | 48.5% | 28-24 |
| 1985-09-08 | San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills | 45.5% | 14-9 |
| 1985-09-08 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Rams | 51.5% | 16-20 |
| 1985-09-08 | St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 44.5% | 27-24 |
| 1985-09-08 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew Orleans Saints | 46.9% | 47-27 |
| 1985-09-08 | Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers | 79.5% | 3-45 |
| 1985-09-08 | Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilersshock | 21.8% | 23-26 |
| 1985-09-08 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 67.1% | 0-21 |
| 1985-09-08 | Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons | 55.0% | 28-27 |
| 1985-09-08 | New York JetsatLos Angeles Raiders | 79.1% | 0-31 |
| 1985-09-08 | Green Bay PackersatNew England Patriots | 53.5% | 20-26 |
| 1985-09-09 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 51.4% | 14-44 |
| 1985-09-12 | Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 54.2% | 20-36 |
| 1985-09-15 | New England PatriotsatChicago Bears | 63.5% | 7-20 |
| 1985-09-15 | Cincinnati BengalsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 70.9% | 27-41 |
| 1985-09-15 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 65.5% | 3-42 |
| 1985-09-15 | New Orleans SaintsatDenver Broncos | 76.0% | 23-34 |
| 1985-09-15 | Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 59.5% | 31-16 |
| 1985-09-15 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers | 46.5% | 49-35 |
| 1985-09-15 | Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 85.6% | 13-30 |
| 1985-09-15 | Houston OilersatWashington Redskins | 80.0% | 13-16 |
| 1985-09-15 | Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions | 41.3% | 21-26 |
| 1985-09-15 | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 43.6% | 17-6 |
| 1985-09-15 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 58.0% | 20-23 |
| 1985-09-15 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 86.8% | 16-35 |
| 1985-09-16 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 42.2% | 7-17 |
| 1985-09-19 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 42.2% | 33-24 |
| 1985-09-22 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Raiders | 48.9% | 34-10 |
| 1985-09-22 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 58.3% | 44-41 |
| 1985-09-22 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 37.8% | 17-14 |
| 1985-09-22 | Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons | 32.0% | 44-28 |
| 1985-09-22 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 67.8% | 7-20 |
| 1985-09-22 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints | 64.6% | 13-20 |
| 1985-09-22 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 49.5% | 17-27 |
| 1985-09-22 | Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins | 61.9% | 0-31 |
| 1985-09-22 | Detroit LionsatIndianapolis Colts | 45.6% | 6-14 |
| 1985-09-22 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 76.7% | 19-6 |
| 1985-09-22 | New York JetsatGreen Bay Packers | 71.1% | 24-3 |
| 1985-09-22 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 79.3% | 0-20 |
| 1985-09-23 | Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks | 66.0% | 35-24 |
| 1985-09-29 | Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears | 69.4% | 10-45 |
| 1985-09-29 | Minnesota VikingsatBuffalo Bills | 46.2% | 27-20 |
| 1985-09-29 | Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos | 52.2% | 30-26 |
| 1985-09-29 | Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers | 63.8% | 21-7 |
| 1985-09-29 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions | 67.7% | 9-30 |
| 1985-09-29 | Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 69.4% | 28-43 |
| 1985-09-29 | Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs | 58.5% | 7-28 |
| 1985-09-29 | Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets | 72.7% | 20-25 |
| 1985-09-29 | Dallas CowboysatHouston Oilers | 31.8% | 17-10 |
| 1985-09-29 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 46.8% | 16-10 |
| 1985-09-29 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 84.9% | 6-17 |
| 1985-09-29 | Los Angeles RaidersatNew England Patriots | 52.9% | 35-20 |
| 1985-09-29 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 86.3% | 20-17 |
| 1985-09-30 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 71.7% | 37-24 |
| 1985-10-06 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 20.2% | 38-17 |
| 1985-10-06 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 24.7% | 27-19 |
| 1985-10-06 | New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals | 58.5% | 29-20 |
| 1985-10-06 | Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts | 66.8% | 17-49 |
| 1985-10-06 | Houston OilersatDenver Broncos | 84.8% | 20-31 |
| 1985-10-06 | New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns | 61.3% | 20-24 |
| 1985-10-06 | San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks | 72.0% | 21-26 |
| 1985-10-06 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders | 56.9% | 10-19 |
| 1985-10-06 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 58.6% | 30-29 |
| 1985-10-06 | Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins | 78.0% | 20-24 |
| 1985-10-06 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints | 62.5% | 21-23 |
| 1985-10-06 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 62.0% | 10-43 |
| 1985-10-06 | Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams | 78.3% | 10-13 |
| 1985-10-07 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 46.2% | 10-27 |
| 1985-10-13 | New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengals | 46.6% | 30-35 |
| 1985-10-13 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 79.5% | 3-14 |
| 1985-10-13 | Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts | 33.0% | 15-10 |
| 1985-10-13 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 35.5% | 21-6 |
| 1985-10-13 | Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 23.2% | 31-27 |
| 1985-10-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 74.1% | 30-7 |
| 1985-10-13 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 40.2% | 20-31 |
| 1985-10-13 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 71.6% | 3-24 |
| 1985-10-13 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 69.0% | 13-27 |
| 1985-10-13 | Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks | 83.6% | 26-30 |
| 1985-10-13 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 66.5% | 17-20 |
| 1985-10-13 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Raiders | 75.6% | 13-23 |
| 1985-10-13 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 66.7% | 26-10 |
| 1985-10-14 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 39.1% | 7-23 |
| 1985-10-20 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 28.5% | 21-23 |
| 1985-10-20 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 35.9% | 27-44 |
| 1985-10-20 | Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 45.2% | 9-21 |
| 1985-10-20 | Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos | 62.9% | 10-13 |
| 1985-10-20 | Los Angeles RaidersatCleveland Browns | 46.7% | 21-20 |
| 1985-10-20 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMiami Dolphins | 89.1% | 38-41 |
| 1985-10-20 | St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 55.6% | 10-23 |
| 1985-10-20 | San Diego ChargersatMinnesota Vikings | 53.1% | 17-21 |
| 1985-10-20 | Los Angeles RamsatKansas City Chiefs | 49.5% | 16-0 |
| 1985-10-20 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 59.0% | 3-17 |
| 1985-10-20 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 41.8% | 14-16 |
| 1985-10-20 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 42.4% | 24-31 |
| 1985-10-20 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 47.1% | 13-20 |
| 1985-10-21 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 77.7% | 7-23 |
| 1985-10-27 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 63.4% | 28-14 |
| 1985-10-27 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 83.8% | 9-27 |
| 1985-10-27 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 50.4% | 21-26 |
| 1985-10-27 | Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 79.1% | 17-21 |
| 1985-10-27 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 47.3% | 30-10 |
| 1985-10-27 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 59.8% | 14-7 |
| 1985-10-27 | New England PatriotsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 35.4% | 32-14 |
| 1985-10-27 | Houston OilersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 75.4% | 20-10 |
| 1985-10-27 | Green Bay PackersatIndianapolis Colts | 39.9% | 10-37 |
| 1985-10-27 | Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys | 83.1% | 10-24 |
| 1985-10-27 | Miami DolphinsatDetroit Lions | 30.2% | 21-31 |
| 1985-10-27 | New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints | 42.1% | 21-13 |
| 1985-10-27 | Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets | 56.5% | 14-17 |
| 1985-10-28 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders | 78.3% | 21-34 |
| 1985-11-03 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 28.5% | 16-10 |
| 1985-11-03 | Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills | 37.5% | 23-17 |
| 1985-11-03 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 33.7% | 10-30 |
| 1985-11-03 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 58.9% | 9-10 |
| 1985-11-03 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants | 87.0% | 20-22 |
| 1985-11-03 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 45.6% | 20-23 |
| 1985-11-03 | New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts | 37.6% | 35-17 |
| 1985-11-03 | Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons | 33.8% | 44-10 |
| 1985-11-03 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 47.7% | 13-17 |
| 1985-11-03 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 56.3% | 13-16 |
| 1985-11-03 | Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawks | 47.4% | 3-33 |
| 1985-11-03 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 81.5% | 10-28 |
| 1985-11-03 | Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers | 78.9% | 13-24 |
| 1985-11-04 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 39.7% | 10-21 |
| 1985-11-10 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 85.1% | 3-24 |
| 1985-11-10 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 57.8% | 10-27 |
| 1985-11-10 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 42.5% | 0-20 |
| 1985-11-10 | St. Louis CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 35.0% | 0-16 |
| 1985-11-10 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 45.1% | 34-40 |
| 1985-11-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs | 56.7% | 36-28 |
| 1985-11-10 | Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots | 78.3% | 15-34 |
| 1985-11-10 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 60.4% | 13-7 |
| 1985-11-10 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 60.6% | 17-21 |
| 1985-11-10 | Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 76.8% | 17-23 |
| 1985-11-10 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants | 53.1% | 19-24 |
| 1985-11-10 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 60.6% | 27-17 |
| 1985-11-10 | Seattle SeahawksatNew Orleans Saints | 34.5% | 27-3 |
| 1985-11-11 | San Francisco 49ersatDenver Broncos | 49.4% | 16-17 |
| 1985-11-17 | Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys | 42.7% | 44-0 |
| 1985-11-17 | Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Raiders | 68.6% | 6-13 |
| 1985-11-17 | Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns | 75.7% | 7-17 |
| 1985-11-17 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 70.0% | 24-30 |
| 1985-11-17 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Jets | 83.4% | 28-62 |
| 1985-11-17 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 65.4% | 14-24 |
| 1985-11-17 | Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts | 28.0% | 34-20 |
| 1985-11-17 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falconsshock | 22.9% | 14-30 |
| 1985-11-17 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 61.9% | 21-41 |
| 1985-11-17 | New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers | 70.4% | 14-38 |
| 1985-11-17 | New England PatriotsatSeattle Seahawks | 67.0% | 20-13 |
| 1985-11-17 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 38.8% | 30-7 |
| 1985-11-17 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers | 82.3% | 3-31 |
| 1985-11-18 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 51.6% | 21-23 |
| 1985-11-24 | Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears | 91.7% | 0-36 |
| 1985-11-24 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 57.2% | 6-24 |
| 1985-11-24 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 21.7% | 23-14 |
| 1985-11-24 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders | 55.7% | 28-31 |
| 1985-11-24 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 41.0% | 16-19 |
| 1985-11-24 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 35.7% | 34-3 |
| 1985-11-24 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 37.8% | 35-37 |
| 1985-11-24 | Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs | 71.0% | 7-20 |
| 1985-11-24 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 58.7% | 30-23 |
| 1985-11-24 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 64.1% | 17-34 |
| 1985-11-24 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 58.4% | 13-16 |
| 1985-11-24 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 67.9% | 17-34 |
| 1985-11-24 | New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings | 63.4% | 30-23 |
| 1985-11-25 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers | 70.8% | 6-19 |
| 1985-11-28 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 80.0% | 17-35 |
| 1985-11-28 | New York JetsatDetroit Lions | 39.9% | 20-31 |
| 1985-12-01 | San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins | 44.4% | 35-8 |
| 1985-12-01 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 71.8% | 27-45 |
| 1985-12-01 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 80.3% | 7-40 |
| 1985-12-01 | Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers | 48.2% | 31-23 |
| 1985-12-01 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 72.9% | 35-33 |
| 1985-12-01 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers | 74.4% | 0-21 |
| 1985-12-01 | Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks | 72.7% | 6-24 |
| 1985-12-01 | New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts | 28.1% | 38-31 |
| 1985-12-01 | Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 74.4% | 28-23 |
| 1985-12-01 | Los Angeles RaidersatAtlanta Falcons | 28.4% | 34-24 |
| 1985-12-01 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 34.5% | 3-29 |
| 1985-12-02 | Chicago BearsatMiami Dolphins | 43.0% | 24-38 |
| 1985-12-08 | Indianapolis ColtsatChicago Bears | 92.6% | 10-17 |
| 1985-12-08 | Dallas CowboysatCincinnati Bengals | 45.3% | 24-50 |
| 1985-12-08 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 25.4% | 27-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos | 60.6% | 17-14 |
| 1985-12-08 | Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks | 67.2% | 13-31 |
| 1985-12-08 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings | 67.7% | 7-26 |
| 1985-12-08 | New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 50.6% | 16-28 |
| 1985-12-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers | 59.9% | 44-54 |
| 1985-12-08 | Atlanta FalconsatKansas City Chiefs | 70.1% | 10-38 |
| 1985-12-08 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 47.4% | 17-12 |
| 1985-12-08 | Miami DolphinsatGreen Bay Packers | 36.3% | 34-24 |
| 1985-12-08 | New York GiantsatHouston Oilers | 27.1% | 35-14 |
| 1985-12-08 | Detroit LionsatNew England Patriots | 72.0% | 6-23 |
| 1985-12-09 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 80.5% | 27-20 |
| 1985-12-14 | Chicago BearsatNew York Jets | 39.7% | 19-6 |
| 1985-12-14 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 76.6% | 13-14 |
| 1985-12-15 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 25.2% | 31-19 |
| 1985-12-15 | Cincinnati BengalsatWashington Redskins | 65.4% | 24-27 |
| 1985-12-15 | Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers | 81.8% | 24-30 |
| 1985-12-15 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 78.7% | 21-28 |
| 1985-12-15 | Indianapolis ColtsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 58.6% | 31-23 |
| 1985-12-15 | St. Louis CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams | 78.4% | 14-46 |
| 1985-12-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatSan Diego Chargers | 69.3% | 14-20 |
| 1985-12-15 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 50.3% | 21-28 |
| 1985-12-15 | Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons | 47.8% | 13-14 |
| 1985-12-15 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 58.1% | 26-23 |
| 1985-12-15 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders | 63.6% | 3-13 |
| 1985-12-16 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 69.1% | 27-30 |
| 1985-12-20 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 55.5% | 27-24 |
| 1985-12-21 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 34.1% | 27-16 |
| 1985-12-21 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 71.7% | 10-28 |
| 1985-12-22 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 22.7% | 37-17 |
| 1985-12-22 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots | 69.3% | 23-34 |
| 1985-12-22 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 93.4% | 0-28 |
| 1985-12-22 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets | 64.5% | 10-37 |
| 1985-12-22 | Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 32.2% | 20-17 |
| 1985-12-22 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 48.4% | 34-38 |
| 1985-12-22 | Houston OilersatIndianapolis Colts | 62.2% | 16-34 |
| 1985-12-22 | Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings | 56.0% | 37-35 |
| 1985-12-22 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 67.0% | 16-10 |
| 1985-12-22 | Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers | 74.4% | 16-31 |
| 1985-12-23 | Los Angeles RaidersatLos Angeles Rams | 50.0% | 16-6 |
| 1985-12-28 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 55.0% | 26-14 |
| 1985-12-29 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants | 45.5% | 3-17 |
| 1986-01-04 | Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins | 81.6% | 21-24 |
| 1986-01-04 | Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams | 60.0% | 0-20 |
| 1986-01-05 | New York GiantsatChicago Bears | 72.9% | 0-21 |
| 1986-01-05 | New England PatriotsatLos Angeles Raiders | 64.8% | 27-20 |
| 1986-01-12 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 79.8% | 0-24 |
| 1986-01-12 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 63.0% | 31-14 |
| 1986-01-26 | New England PatriotsvsChicago Bears | 60.0% | 10-46 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.