The expectation ledger
The 1983 season, against expectation
Every game of 1983scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2372
Market Brier
0.2338
Longest odds beaten
18.2%
Minnesota Vikings
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1983.
Show all 28 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1983 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1983-09-03 | Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers | 63.3% | 22-17 |
| 1983-09-04 | Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears | 56.4% | 20-17 |
| 1983-09-04 | Los Angeles RaidersatCincinnati Bengals | 56.4% | 20-10 |
| 1983-09-04 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 45.5% | 12-0 |
| 1983-09-04 | Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers | 73.6% | 14-10 |
| 1983-09-04 | Minnesota VikingsatCleveland Browns | 54.2% | 27-21 |
| 1983-09-04 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 59.3% | 11-0 |
| 1983-09-04 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints | 56.6% | 17-28 |
| 1983-09-04 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 58.2% | 41-29 |
| 1983-09-04 | Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs | 64.0% | 13-17 |
| 1983-09-04 | Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots | 74.3% | 29-23 |
| 1983-09-04 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants | 70.7% | 16-6 |
| 1983-09-04 | Green Bay PackersatHouston Oilers | 40.8% | 41-38 |
| 1983-09-05 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 64.6% | 31-30 |
| 1983-09-08 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 60.1% | 48-17 |
| 1983-09-11 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears | 55.3% | 10-17 |
| 1983-09-11 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 66.5% | 10-6 |
| 1983-09-11 | Denver BroncosatBaltimore Colts | 48.5% | 17-10 |
| 1983-09-11 | Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions | 70.5% | 31-26 |
| 1983-09-11 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 38.1% | 34-17 |
| 1983-09-11 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 46.3% | 23-13 |
| 1983-09-11 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 80.2% | 24-34 |
| 1983-09-11 | New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons | 61.0% | 16-13 |
| 1983-09-11 | Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets | 78.0% | 17-10 |
| 1983-09-11 | Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers | 61.5% | 25-21 |
| 1983-09-11 | Houston OilersatLos Angeles Raiders | 83.7% | 6-20 |
| 1983-09-11 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 57.5% | 27-30 |
| 1983-09-12 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 55.2% | 17-14 |
| 1983-09-15 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 52.4% | 7-17 |
| 1983-09-18 | San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 41.4% | 42-27 |
| 1983-09-18 | Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints | 60.1% | 31-34 |
| 1983-09-18 | Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 75.9% | 23-28 |
| 1983-09-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatDenver Broncos | 56.4% | 13-10 |
| 1983-09-18 | Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 55.4% | 19-16 |
| 1983-09-18 | San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks | 49.9% | 31-34 |
| 1983-09-18 | Kansas City ChiefsatWashington Redskins | 76.4% | 12-27 |
| 1983-09-18 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 75.1% | 13-28 |
| 1983-09-18 | Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions | 62.9% | 30-14 |
| 1983-09-18 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 39.3% | 13-23 |
| 1983-09-18 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 66.2% | 24-27 |
| 1983-09-18 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 36.2% | 40-28 |
| 1983-09-19 | Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Raiders | 57.3% | 14-27 |
| 1983-09-25 | Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts | 47.6% | 19-22 |
| 1983-09-25 | Cincinnati BengalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 50.6% | 23-17 |
| 1983-09-25 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 77.1% | 13-30 |
| 1983-09-25 | Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos | 35.1% | 22-7 |
| 1983-09-25 | Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers | 67.3% | 30-24 |
| 1983-09-25 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 74.0% | 14-11 |
| 1983-09-25 | Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins | 74.5% | 6-14 |
| 1983-09-25 | Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks | 39.0% | 27-17 |
| 1983-09-25 | New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys | 78.5% | 20-21 |
| 1983-09-25 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Jets | 70.5% | 24-27 |
| 1983-09-25 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 63.2% | 17-20 |
| 1983-09-25 | New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers | 71.8% | 28-23 |
| 1983-09-25 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 68.2% | 20-24 |
| 1983-09-26 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants | 51.9% | 3-27 |
| 1983-10-02 | San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots | 46.5% | 33-13 |
| 1983-10-02 | Denver BroncosatChicago Bears | 56.1% | 14-31 |
| 1983-10-02 | Baltimore ColtsatCincinnati Bengals | 75.8% | 34-31 |
| 1983-10-02 | Seattle SeahawksatCleveland Browns | 62.5% | 24-9 |
| 1983-10-02 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers | 71.0% | 14-55 |
| 1983-10-02 | St. Louis CardinalsatKansas City Chiefs | 66.2% | 14-38 |
| 1983-10-02 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Giants | 57.9% | 41-34 |
| 1983-10-02 | Los Angeles RaidersatWashington Redskins | 60.8% | 35-37 |
| 1983-10-02 | Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings | 39.9% | 37-24 |
| 1983-10-02 | Miami DolphinsatNew Orleans Saints | 37.6% | 7-17 |
| 1983-10-02 | Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons | 59.0% | 28-24 |
| 1983-10-02 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 59.9% | 10-21 |
| 1983-10-02 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 80.7% | 10-17 |
| 1983-10-03 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 54.8% | 34-10 |
| 1983-10-09 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 55.8% | 23-14 |
| 1983-10-09 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 72.3% | 38-35 |
| 1983-10-09 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 48.0% | 26-14 |
| 1983-10-09 | New York JetsatCleveland Browns | 43.2% | 7-10 |
| 1983-10-09 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys | 87.0% | 24-27 |
| 1983-10-09 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 23.3% | 38-14 |
| 1983-10-09 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers | 61.6% | 21-28 |
| 1983-10-09 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders | 77.7% | 20-21 |
| 1983-10-09 | New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts | 49.6% | 7-12 |
| 1983-10-09 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 54.6% | 17-13 |
| 1983-10-09 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 56.2% | 19-17 |
| 1983-10-09 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 46.4% | 14-38 |
| 1983-10-09 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 76.4% | 10-7 |
| 1983-10-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 51.1% | 24-14 |
| 1983-10-16 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 48.2% | 32-13 |
| 1983-10-16 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 64.4% | 17-31 |
| 1983-10-16 | Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos | 57.5% | 17-24 |
| 1983-10-16 | Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts | 46.1% | 30-7 |
| 1983-10-16 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 69.0% | 17-44 |
| 1983-10-16 | St. Louis CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 58.4% | 34-27 |
| 1983-10-16 | San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots | 43.5% | 21-37 |
| 1983-10-16 | New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs | 63.2% | 17-38 |
| 1983-10-16 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 74.5% | 7-37 |
| 1983-10-16 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 60.3% | 32-14 |
| 1983-10-16 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 63.5% | 21-27 |
| 1983-10-16 | Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawks | 39.1% | 36-38 |
| 1983-10-16 | Houston OilersatMinnesota Vikings | 80.5% | 14-34 |
| 1983-10-17 | Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers | 30.7% | 47-48 |
| 1983-10-23 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 43.9% | 45-35 |
| 1983-10-23 | Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 73.4% | 7-6 |
| 1983-10-23 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 54.9% | 21-28 |
| 1983-10-23 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 66.8% | 31-0 |
| 1983-10-23 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 50.8% | 6-14 |
| 1983-10-23 | New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 41.9% | 24-21 |
| 1983-10-23 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 30.6% | 13-10 |
| 1983-10-23 | Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts | 29.5% | 21-7 |
| 1983-10-23 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 82.0% | 17-38 |
| 1983-10-23 | Los Angeles RaidersatDallas Cowboys | 63.8% | 40-38 |
| 1983-10-23 | Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets | 70.6% | 27-21 |
| 1983-10-23 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 56.7% | 20-17 |
| 1983-10-23 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks | 50.4% | 27-21 |
| 1983-10-24 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 55.3% | 20-20 |
| 1983-10-30 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 51.6% | 38-17 |
| 1983-10-30 | Green Bay PackersatCincinnati Bengals | 56.9% | 14-34 |
| 1983-10-30 | New Orleans SaintsatBuffalo Bills | 58.6% | 21-27 |
| 1983-10-30 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 53.9% | 24-27 |
| 1983-10-30 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 77.9% | 19-25 |
| 1983-10-30 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPittsburgh Steelers | 86.5% | 12-17 |
| 1983-10-30 | Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 42.9% | 31-41 |
| 1983-10-30 | Baltimore ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 76.0% | 22-21 |
| 1983-10-30 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 30.1% | 38-20 |
| 1983-10-30 | Los Angeles RamsatMiami Dolphins | 75.4% | 14-30 |
| 1983-10-30 | New England PatriotsatAtlanta Falcons | 52.2% | 13-24 |
| 1983-10-30 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders | 77.3% | 34-21 |
| 1983-10-30 | New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers | 75.4% | 27-13 |
| 1983-10-31 | Washington RedskinsatSan Diego Chargers | 33.2% | 27-24 |
| 1983-11-06 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 70.9% | 14-21 |
| 1983-11-06 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 32.3% | 55-14 |
| 1983-11-06 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 59.5% | 7-21 |
| 1983-11-06 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 66.0% | 19-27 |
| 1983-11-06 | Cleveland BrownsatGreen Bay Packers | 57.8% | 21-35 |
| 1983-11-06 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 78.2% | 17-12 |
| 1983-11-06 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 86.4% | 7-45 |
| 1983-11-06 | San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers | 73.9% | 3-26 |
| 1983-11-06 | Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 45.6% | 28-20 |
| 1983-11-06 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jetsshock | 79.3% | 17-14 |
| 1983-11-06 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 34.3% | 27-20 |
| 1983-11-06 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 55.6% | 10-27 |
| 1983-11-06 | Miami DolphinsatSan Francisco 49ers | 53.8% | 20-17 |
| 1983-11-07 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 69.1% | 9-15 |
| 1983-11-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears | 43.9% | 14-17 |
| 1983-11-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs | 56.7% | 15-20 |
| 1983-11-13 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 65.4% | 24-17 |
| 1983-11-13 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders | 76.7% | 20-22 |
| 1983-11-13 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCleveland Browns | 67.9% | 0-20 |
| 1983-11-13 | Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Cardinals | 40.7% | 28-33 |
| 1983-11-13 | Dallas CowboysatSan Diego Chargers | 30.5% | 23-24 |
| 1983-11-13 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Colts | 29.3% | 24-13 |
| 1983-11-13 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 21.5% | 33-17 |
| 1983-11-13 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 42.3% | 6-17 |
| 1983-11-13 | Detroit LionsatHouston Oilers | 26.3% | 17-27 |
| 1983-11-13 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 58.5% | 29-21 |
| 1983-11-13 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers | 69.1% | 0-27 |
| 1983-11-14 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 58.0% | 36-13 |
| 1983-11-20 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 37.1% | 24-28 |
| 1983-11-20 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 54.5% | 27-0 |
| 1983-11-20 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 80.9% | 10-38 |
| 1983-11-20 | Los Angeles RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 42.0% | 27-24 |
| 1983-11-20 | Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos | 50.5% | 27-38 |
| 1983-11-20 | Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots | 71.8% | 30-0 |
| 1983-11-20 | San Diego ChargersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 54.4% | 14-44 |
| 1983-11-20 | Kansas City ChiefsatDallas Cowboys | 79.4% | 21-41 |
| 1983-11-20 | Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 83.9% | 0-37 |
| 1983-11-20 | Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams | 32.2% | 42-20 |
| 1983-11-20 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 67.2% | 23-0 |
| 1983-11-20 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 62.6% | 23-20 |
| 1983-11-20 | Minnesota VikingsatPittsburgh Steelersshock | 81.8% | 17-14 |
| 1983-11-21 | New York JetsatNew Orleans Saints | 57.0% | 31-28 |
| 1983-11-24 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 82.3% | 17-35 |
| 1983-11-24 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions | 42.3% | 3-45 |
| 1983-11-27 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 38.3% | 3-13 |
| 1983-11-27 | Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.0% | 17-41 |
| 1983-11-27 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 52.7% | 7-31 |
| 1983-11-27 | Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns | 75.3% | 23-41 |
| 1983-11-27 | Houston OilersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 62.3% | 24-33 |
| 1983-11-27 | Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks | 62.2% | 48-51 |
| 1983-11-27 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 90.0% | 24-28 |
| 1983-11-27 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 56.1% | 41-47 |
| 1983-11-27 | New York GiantsatLos Angeles Raiders | 81.4% | 12-27 |
| 1983-11-27 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 60.9% | 3-26 |
| 1983-11-27 | Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints | 58.9% | 16-17 |
| 1983-11-28 | Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins | 74.4% | 14-38 |
| 1983-12-01 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 36.2% | 42-10 |
| 1983-12-04 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 60.4% | 28-31 |
| 1983-12-04 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 69.5% | 23-10 |
| 1983-12-04 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 60.8% | 14-9 |
| 1983-12-04 | Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos | 52.1% | 6-27 |
| 1983-12-04 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 54.4% | 10-6 |
| 1983-12-04 | New York JetsatBaltimore Colts | 35.5% | 10-6 |
| 1983-12-04 | Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins | 86.8% | 21-37 |
| 1983-12-04 | Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks | 35.3% | 35-10 |
| 1983-12-04 | Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers | 15.4% | 24-17 |
| 1983-12-04 | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 43.3% | 9-13 |
| 1983-12-04 | New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots | 60.2% | 0-7 |
| 1983-12-04 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers | 82.8% | 21-35 |
| 1983-12-05 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 69.2% | 2-13 |
| 1983-12-10 | Atlanta FalconsatMiami Dolphins | 80.0% | 24-31 |
| 1983-12-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets | 62.0% | 34-7 |
| 1983-12-11 | San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills | 51.4% | 23-10 |
| 1983-12-11 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 59.5% | 19-13 |
| 1983-12-11 | Detroit LionsatCincinnati Bengals | 56.0% | 9-17 |
| 1983-12-11 | Baltimore ColtsatDenver Broncos | 77.0% | 19-21 |
| 1983-12-11 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 29.0% | 27-34 |
| 1983-12-11 | St. Louis CardinalsatLos Angeles Raidersshock | 80.6% | 34-24 |
| 1983-12-11 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 59.5% | 38-41 |
| 1983-12-11 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 55.4% | 31-10 |
| 1983-12-11 | New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 56.5% | 20-17 |
| 1983-12-11 | Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants | 47.7% | 17-12 |
| 1983-12-11 | New England PatriotsatLos Angeles Rams | 61.5% | 21-7 |
| 1983-12-12 | Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 38.2% | 12-9 |
| 1983-12-16 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 77.3% | 14-34 |
| 1983-12-17 | Cincinnati BengalsatMinnesota Vikings | 41.5% | 14-20 |
| 1983-12-17 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 92.6% | 22-31 |
| 1983-12-18 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 57.0% | 21-23 |
| 1983-12-18 | Buffalo BillsatAtlanta Falcons | 58.4% | 14-31 |
| 1983-12-18 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 51.2% | 17-48 |
| 1983-12-18 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 43.8% | 17-30 |
| 1983-12-18 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions | 83.5% | 20-23 |
| 1983-12-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 74.1% | 7-31 |
| 1983-12-18 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders | 78.3% | 14-30 |
| 1983-12-18 | Houston OilersatBaltimore Colts | 65.7% | 10-20 |
| 1983-12-18 | New England PatriotsatSeattle Seahawks | 58.3% | 6-24 |
| 1983-12-18 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 58.6% | 26-24 |
| 1983-12-19 | Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers | 44.3% | 17-42 |
| 1983-12-24 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 68.6% | 7-31 |
| 1983-12-26 | Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboysshock | 78.3% | 24-17 |
| 1983-12-31 | Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins | 72.4% | 27-20 |
| 1983-12-31 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 69.5% | 23-24 |
| 1984-01-01 | Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskins | 86.5% | 7-51 |
| 1984-01-01 | Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Raiders | 72.3% | 10-38 |
| 1984-01-08 | San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins | 79.7% | 21-24 |
| 1984-01-08 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders | 67.7% | 14-30 |
| 1984-01-22 | Washington RedskinsvsLos Angeles Raiders | 33.5% | 9-38 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.