The expectation ledger
The 1982 season, against expectation
Every game of 1982scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
141
Model Brier
0.2282
Market Brier
0.2304
Longest odds beaten
18.6%
Los Angeles Rams
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1982.
Show all 28 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1982 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982-09-12 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 65.4% | 10-17 |
| 1982-09-12 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 75.2% | 6-27 |
| 1982-09-12 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 60.4% | 9-14 |
| 1982-09-12 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 55.1% | 23-3 |
| 1982-09-12 | Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks | 62.5% | 21-7 |
| 1982-09-12 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings | 54.1% | 10-17 |
| 1982-09-12 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints | 47.0% | 21-7 |
| 1982-09-12 | New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts | 48.5% | 24-13 |
| 1982-09-12 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 63.2% | 37-34 |
| 1982-09-12 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 54.3% | 45-28 |
| 1982-09-12 | Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants | 60.8% | 16-14 |
| 1982-09-12 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 61.2% | 23-35 |
| 1982-09-12 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 75.2% | 23-17 |
| 1982-09-13 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 67.8% | 36-28 |
| 1982-09-16 | Minnesota VikingsatBuffalo Bills | 68.7% | 22-23 |
| 1982-09-19 | San Francisco 49ersatDenver Broncos | 47.7% | 21-24 |
| 1982-09-19 | New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bearsshock | 73.3% | 10-0 |
| 1982-09-19 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 54.0% | 20-26 |
| 1982-09-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 53.6% | 24-21 |
| 1982-09-19 | Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 52.0% | 21-13 |
| 1982-09-19 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 45.9% | 24-7 |
| 1982-09-19 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 47.0% | 12-19 |
| 1982-09-19 | Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 87.4% | 20-24 |
| 1982-09-19 | Los Angeles RaidersatAtlanta Falcons | 59.4% | 38-14 |
| 1982-09-19 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 52.4% | 31-7 |
| 1982-09-19 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 46.9% | 19-14 |
| 1982-09-19 | Seattle SeahawksatHouston Oilers | 62.5% | 21-23 |
| 1982-09-20 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants | 60.3% | 27-19 |
| 1982-11-21 | San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 43.3% | 31-20 |
| 1982-11-21 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 41.1% | 17-20 |
| 1982-11-21 | Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 50.8% | 18-14 |
| 1982-11-21 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 52.9% | 9-7 |
| 1982-11-21 | Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos | 71.1% | 17-10 |
| 1982-11-21 | New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns | 66.1% | 7-10 |
| 1982-11-21 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys | 77.3% | 9-14 |
| 1982-11-21 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew Orleans Saints | 37.8% | 17-27 |
| 1982-11-21 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets | 82.9% | 0-37 |
| 1982-11-21 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 48.6% | 27-17 |
| 1982-11-21 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 66.5% | 17-34 |
| 1982-11-21 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 65.8% | 7-26 |
| 1982-11-21 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 40.9% | 24-10 |
| 1982-11-22 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders | 56.7% | 24-28 |
| 1982-11-25 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 76.1% | 14-31 |
| 1982-11-25 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 69.3% | 13-6 |
| 1982-11-28 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 61.9% | 7-35 |
| 1982-11-28 | Los Angeles RaidersatCincinnati Bengals | 64.5% | 17-31 |
| 1982-11-28 | Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 84.7% | 0-20 |
| 1982-11-28 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 69.6% | 20-30 |
| 1982-11-28 | St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons | 67.7% | 23-20 |
| 1982-11-28 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Rams | 45.4% | 14-20 |
| 1982-11-28 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 66.7% | 9-13 |
| 1982-11-28 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Jets | 59.1% | 13-15 |
| 1982-11-28 | Houston OilersatNew England Patriots | 53.9% | 21-29 |
| 1982-11-28 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks | 37.0% | 0-16 |
| 1982-11-28 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 79.8% | 23-20 |
| 1982-11-29 | Miami DolphinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 36.1% | 17-23 |
| 1982-12-02 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 40.1% | 30-24 |
| 1982-12-05 | New England PatriotsatChicago Bears | 57.2% | 13-26 |
| 1982-12-05 | Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Colts | 18.1% | 20-17 |
| 1982-12-05 | Buffalo BillsatGreen Bay Packers | 57.0% | 21-33 |
| 1982-12-05 | Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncos | 58.1% | 34-27 |
| 1982-12-05 | San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns | 42.7% | 30-13 |
| 1982-12-05 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints | 54.7% | 13-10 |
| 1982-12-05 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 66.4% | 23-20 |
| 1982-12-05 | Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers | 71.4% | 14-35 |
| 1982-12-05 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 53.8% | 24-10 |
| 1982-12-05 | Minnesota VikingsatMiami Dolphins | 72.7% | 14-22 |
| 1982-12-05 | Houston OilersatNew York Giants | 67.4% | 14-17 |
| 1982-12-05 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders | 67.3% | 23-28 |
| 1982-12-06 | New York JetsatDetroit Lions | 51.9% | 28-13 |
| 1982-12-11 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 59.7% | 7-23 |
| 1982-12-11 | San Diego ChargersatSan Francisco 49ers | 56.2% | 41-37 |
| 1982-12-12 | Chicago BearsatSeattle Seahawks | 66.0% | 14-20 |
| 1982-12-12 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 81.9% | 10-23 |
| 1982-12-12 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills | 50.0% | 0-13 |
| 1982-12-12 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Rams | 54.8% | 27-24 |
| 1982-12-12 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Jets | 71.1% | 17-32 |
| 1982-12-12 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 47.9% | 12-7 |
| 1982-12-12 | Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 45.2% | 21-16 |
| 1982-12-12 | Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings | 79.6% | 10-13 |
| 1982-12-12 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 32.4% | 0-3 |
| 1982-12-12 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 69.6% | 0-35 |
| 1982-12-12 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 70.5% | 30-10 |
| 1982-12-13 | Dallas CowboysatHouston Oilers | 27.0% | 37-7 |
| 1982-12-18 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 56.7% | 19-20 |
| 1982-12-18 | Los Angeles RamsatLos Angeles Raiders | 80.5% | 31-37 |
| 1982-12-19 | St. Louis CardinalsatChicago Bears | 53.9% | 10-7 |
| 1982-12-19 | Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 47.5% | 23-24 |
| 1982-12-19 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 60.7% | 37-16 |
| 1982-12-19 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 39.5% | 9-10 |
| 1982-12-19 | Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts | 29.4% | 20-20 |
| 1982-12-19 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 66.9% | 14-15 |
| 1982-12-19 | New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys | 87.0% | 7-21 |
| 1982-12-19 | Houston OilersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 68.5% | 14-35 |
| 1982-12-19 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 64.9% | 34-31 |
| 1982-12-19 | New England PatriotsatSeattle Seahawks | 68.8% | 16-0 |
| 1982-12-19 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 64.3% | 17-7 |
| 1982-12-20 | Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers | 56.1% | 34-50 |
| 1982-12-26 | San Francisco 49ersatKansas City Chiefs | 53.7% | 26-13 |
| 1982-12-26 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 57.5% | 34-26 |
| 1982-12-26 | Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals | 78.9% | 10-24 |
| 1982-12-26 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders | 79.0% | 10-27 |
| 1982-12-26 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 50.9% | 20-14 |
| 1982-12-26 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 57.0% | 21-23 |
| 1982-12-26 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 54.0% | 21-24 |
| 1982-12-26 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Diego Chargers | 91.4% | 26-44 |
| 1982-12-26 | Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saints | 34.4% | 27-10 |
| 1982-12-26 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboysshock | 81.3% | 24-20 |
| 1982-12-26 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 66.4% | 38-7 |
| 1982-12-26 | New York JetsatMinnesota Vikings | 45.6% | 42-14 |
| 1982-12-26 | New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers | 71.4% | 14-37 |
| 1982-12-27 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 63.8% | 10-27 |
| 1983-01-02 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 67.1% | 23-26 |
| 1983-01-02 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 23.5% | 35-27 |
| 1983-01-02 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 47.8% | 19-30 |
| 1983-01-02 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 63.6% | 11-13 |
| 1983-01-02 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 74.2% | 21-37 |
| 1983-01-02 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 73.2% | 0-28 |
| 1983-01-02 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 65.9% | 41-34 |
| 1983-01-02 | New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs | 37.0% | 13-37 |
| 1983-01-02 | Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts | 19.9% | 34-7 |
| 1983-01-02 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 61.6% | 26-24 |
| 1983-01-02 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 41.0% | 6-35 |
| 1983-01-02 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 50.1% | 24-27 |
| 1983-01-02 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 81.4% | 21-20 |
| 1983-01-03 | Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings | 33.6% | 27-31 |
| 1983-01-08 | Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Raiders | 80.8% | 10-27 |
| 1983-01-08 | St. Louis CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers | 68.4% | 16-41 |
| 1983-01-08 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 73.3% | 7-31 |
| 1983-01-08 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 76.5% | 13-28 |
| 1983-01-09 | New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals | 67.5% | 44-17 |
| 1983-01-09 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys | 74.9% | 17-30 |
| 1983-01-09 | San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers | 54.9% | 31-28 |
| 1983-01-09 | Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings | 61.7% | 24-30 |
| 1983-01-15 | Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins | 75.3% | 7-21 |
| 1983-01-15 | New York JetsatLos Angeles Raiders | 61.2% | 17-14 |
| 1983-01-16 | San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins | 57.9% | 13-34 |
| 1983-01-16 | Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys | 69.5% | 26-37 |
| 1983-01-22 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 57.9% | 17-31 |
| 1983-01-23 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 60.5% | 0-14 |
| 1983-01-30 | Miami DolphinsvsWashington Redskins | 48.7% | 17-27 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.