The expectation ledger
The 1981 season, against expectation
Every game of 1981scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2339
Market Brier
0.2380
Longest odds beaten
14.3%
New York Giants
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1981.
Show all 28 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1981 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1981-09-05 | Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 46.0% | 13-21 |
| 1981-09-06 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 68.0% | 17-24 |
| 1981-09-06 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 71.1% | 16-9 |
| 1981-09-06 | Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals | 64.2% | 21-27 |
| 1981-09-06 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 71.8% | 0-31 |
| 1981-09-06 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 41.4% | 7-9 |
| 1981-09-06 | Miami DolphinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 48.7% | 20-7 |
| 1981-09-06 | Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers | 67.7% | 37-33 |
| 1981-09-06 | Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots | 72.3% | 29-28 |
| 1981-09-06 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 43.2% | 26-10 |
| 1981-09-06 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 30.0% | 24-10 |
| 1981-09-06 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 83.2% | 0-27 |
| 1981-09-06 | Houston OilersatLos Angeles Rams | 58.3% | 27-20 |
| 1981-09-07 | San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns | 57.2% | 44-14 |
| 1981-09-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins | 57.3% | 10-30 |
| 1981-09-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets | 51.3% | 31-30 |
| 1981-09-13 | Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts | 46.4% | 35-3 |
| 1981-09-13 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 42.6% | 10-13 |
| 1981-09-13 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 48.2% | 9-3 |
| 1981-09-13 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatKansas City Chiefs | 71.8% | 10-19 |
| 1981-09-13 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 84.4% | 17-30 |
| 1981-09-13 | Detroit LionsatSan Diego Chargers | 74.0% | 23-28 |
| 1981-09-13 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 71.7% | 17-7 |
| 1981-09-13 | New England PatriotsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 68.7% | 3-13 |
| 1981-09-13 | Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers | 40.1% | 31-17 |
| 1981-09-13 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 32.3% | 17-23 |
| 1981-09-13 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 50.0% | 17-28 |
| 1981-09-14 | Oakland RaidersatMinnesota Vikings | 37.0% | 36-10 |
| 1981-09-17 | Philadelphia EaglesatBuffalo Bills | 53.2% | 20-14 |
| 1981-09-20 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 79.3% | 17-34 |
| 1981-09-20 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears | 62.8% | 17-28 |
| 1981-09-20 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 57.7% | 20-17 |
| 1981-09-20 | Baltimore ColtsatDenver Broncos | 69.9% | 10-28 |
| 1981-09-20 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 54.0% | 30-40 |
| 1981-09-20 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 47.8% | 42-31 |
| 1981-09-20 | Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers | 66.8% | 16-10 |
| 1981-09-20 | New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants | 64.9% | 7-20 |
| 1981-09-20 | New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers | 72.4% | 10-38 |
| 1981-09-20 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 54.4% | 24-26 |
| 1981-09-20 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 70.8% | 23-35 |
| 1981-09-20 | Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders | 84.0% | 10-20 |
| 1981-09-21 | Dallas CowboysatNew England Patriots | 44.0% | 35-21 |
| 1981-09-27 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 45.2% | 24-27 |
| 1981-09-27 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 43.6% | 24-42 |
| 1981-09-27 | Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns | 45.9% | 17-28 |
| 1981-09-27 | St. Louis CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 56.5% | 10-20 |
| 1981-09-27 | Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks | 46.5% | 20-14 |
| 1981-09-27 | Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts | 36.0% | 31-28 |
| 1981-09-27 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 85.3% | 13-36 |
| 1981-09-27 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 84.7% | 10-18 |
| 1981-09-27 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 33.3% | 17-33 |
| 1981-09-27 | Oakland RaidersatDetroit Lions | 33.2% | 0-16 |
| 1981-09-27 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 51.4% | 30-13 |
| 1981-09-27 | New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers | 62.9% | 21-27 |
| 1981-09-27 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers | 67.8% | 14-21 |
| 1981-09-28 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 50.5% | 24-7 |
| 1981-10-04 | San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins | 55.7% | 30-17 |
| 1981-10-04 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 67.1% | 21-24 |
| 1981-10-04 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 67.1% | 10-17 |
| 1981-10-04 | Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 76.9% | 17-23 |
| 1981-10-04 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 66.6% | 17-0 |
| 1981-10-04 | Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.8% | 16-27 |
| 1981-10-04 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 45.6% | 10-28 |
| 1981-10-04 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 23.5% | 17-20 |
| 1981-10-04 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers | 82.2% | 10-24 |
| 1981-10-04 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots | 53.9% | 17-33 |
| 1981-10-04 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 77.9% | 28-28 |
| 1981-10-04 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants | 65.8% | 27-14 |
| 1981-10-04 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints | 30.3% | 20-6 |
| 1981-10-05 | Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 69.9% | 13-16 |
| 1981-10-11 | Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears | 65.8% | 24-7 |
| 1981-10-11 | Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Colts | 49.0% | 41-19 |
| 1981-10-11 | Detroit LionsatDenver Broncos | 74.9% | 21-27 |
| 1981-10-11 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 65.1% | 7-13 |
| 1981-10-11 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers | 53.6% | 21-10 |
| 1981-10-11 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 54.4% | 14-34 |
| 1981-10-11 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Diego Chargers | 74.2% | 33-31 |
| 1981-10-11 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 48.7% | 0-27 |
| 1981-10-11 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints | 16.7% | 31-14 |
| 1981-10-11 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 59.5% | 37-35 |
| 1981-10-11 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 48.8% | 24-28 |
| 1981-10-11 | Seattle SeahawksatHouston Oilers | 78.3% | 17-35 |
| 1981-10-11 | Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers | 33.3% | 14-45 |
| 1981-10-12 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 56.0% | 21-31 |
| 1981-10-18 | San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers | 41.7% | 13-3 |
| 1981-10-18 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 48.5% | 7-34 |
| 1981-10-18 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 42.5% | 14-33 |
| 1981-10-18 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 48.5% | 14-28 |
| 1981-10-18 | New Orleans SaintsatCleveland Browns | 81.5% | 17-20 |
| 1981-10-18 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatOakland Raiders | 68.2% | 16-18 |
| 1981-10-18 | St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons | 78.9% | 20-41 |
| 1981-10-18 | San Diego ChargersatBaltimore Colts | 27.9% | 43-14 |
| 1981-10-18 | Washington RedskinsatMiami Dolphins | 77.4% | 10-13 |
| 1981-10-18 | Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys | 61.0% | 17-29 |
| 1981-10-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings | 36.6% | 23-35 |
| 1981-10-18 | New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks | 55.3% | 32-0 |
| 1981-10-18 | Houston OilersatNew England Patriots | 50.1% | 10-38 |
| 1981-10-19 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 71.1% | 17-48 |
| 1981-10-25 | San Diego ChargersatChicago Bears | 25.3% | 17-20 |
| 1981-10-25 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew Orleans Saints | 28.4% | 7-17 |
| 1981-10-25 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 53.3% | 7-9 |
| 1981-10-25 | Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns | 78.6% | 28-42 |
| 1981-10-25 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 79.5% | 10-20 |
| 1981-10-25 | Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 35.6% | 17-30 |
| 1981-10-25 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 57.0% | 28-17 |
| 1981-10-25 | New England PatriotsatWashington Redskins | 40.9% | 22-24 |
| 1981-10-25 | Miami DolphinsatDallas Cowboys | 65.6% | 27-28 |
| 1981-10-25 | New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons | 73.9% | 27-24 |
| 1981-10-25 | Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets | 77.6% | 19-3 |
| 1981-10-25 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 75.1% | 27-31 |
| 1981-10-25 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 54.1% | 17-20 |
| 1981-10-26 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 60.4% | 13-26 |
| 1981-11-01 | San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers | 62.4% | 17-14 |
| 1981-11-01 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 69.4% | 10-20 |
| 1981-11-01 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 57.2% | 21-34 |
| 1981-11-01 | Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills | 63.7% | 13-22 |
| 1981-11-01 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 59.8% | 21-42 |
| 1981-11-01 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 58.7% | 20-22 |
| 1981-11-01 | Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 84.0% | 10-27 |
| 1981-11-01 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 63.6% | 17-14 |
| 1981-11-01 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 31.6% | 41-10 |
| 1981-11-01 | New York JetsatNew York Giants | 62.8% | 26-7 |
| 1981-11-01 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 66.2% | 13-20 |
| 1981-11-01 | Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers | 53.8% | 24-34 |
| 1981-11-01 | New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders | 59.2% | 17-27 |
| 1981-11-02 | Minnesota VikingsatDenver Broncos | 67.6% | 17-19 |
| 1981-11-08 | Chicago BearsatKansas City Chiefsshock | 83.5% | 16-13 |
| 1981-11-08 | Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers | 69.9% | 40-17 |
| 1981-11-08 | Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos | 69.4% | 20-23 |
| 1981-11-08 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings | 63.5% | 10-25 |
| 1981-11-08 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 26.8% | 52-10 |
| 1981-11-08 | New York JetsatBaltimore Colts | 37.2% | 41-14 |
| 1981-11-08 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 53.5% | 31-33 |
| 1981-11-08 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 49.7% | 30-27 |
| 1981-11-08 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 51.1% | 24-26 |
| 1981-11-08 | Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers | 52.1% | 16-17 |
| 1981-11-08 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Ramsshock | 85.1% | 21-13 |
| 1981-11-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks | 35.2% | 21-24 |
| 1981-11-08 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 57.9% | 14-17 |
| 1981-11-09 | Buffalo BillsatDallas Cowboys | 68.0% | 14-27 |
| 1981-11-15 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 58.0% | 17-21 |
| 1981-11-15 | Los Angeles RamsatCincinnati Bengals | 65.7% | 10-24 |
| 1981-11-15 | Buffalo BillsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 33.9% | 0-24 |
| 1981-11-15 | Denver BroncosatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 40.1% | 24-7 |
| 1981-11-15 | Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs | 67.7% | 10-23 |
| 1981-11-15 | Baltimore ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 91.3% | 13-38 |
| 1981-11-15 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 55.0% | 30-27 |
| 1981-11-15 | Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions | 34.3% | 24-27 |
| 1981-11-15 | Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins | 65.9% | 33-17 |
| 1981-11-15 | Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons | 63.4% | 34-20 |
| 1981-11-15 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 56.2% | 17-6 |
| 1981-11-15 | New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings | 78.2% | 10-20 |
| 1981-11-15 | Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers | 68.5% | 15-12 |
| 1981-11-16 | San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks | 36.4% | 23-44 |
| 1981-11-22 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 52.8% | 33-31 |
| 1981-11-22 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 43.6% | 23-7 |
| 1981-11-22 | Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals | 55.3% | 21-38 |
| 1981-11-22 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 65.8% | 17-20 |
| 1981-11-22 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 53.2% | 32-10 |
| 1981-11-22 | Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 63.6% | 3-37 |
| 1981-11-22 | St. Louis CardinalsatBaltimore Colts | 42.7% | 35-24 |
| 1981-11-22 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 67.4% | 55-21 |
| 1981-11-22 | Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs | 76.9% | 13-40 |
| 1981-11-22 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 78.8% | 10-24 |
| 1981-11-22 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 58.6% | 15-16 |
| 1981-11-22 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock | 85.7% | 20-10 |
| 1981-11-22 | New Orleans SaintsatHouston Oilers | 74.5% | 27-24 |
| 1981-11-23 | Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons | 57.0% | 30-31 |
| 1981-11-26 | Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys | 88.2% | 9-10 |
| 1981-11-26 | Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions | 48.9% | 10-27 |
| 1981-11-29 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 41.2% | 41-21 |
| 1981-11-29 | Washington RedskinsatBuffalo Bills | 67.1% | 14-21 |
| 1981-11-29 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 55.8% | 17-34 |
| 1981-11-29 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints | 48.4% | 31-14 |
| 1981-11-29 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew England Patriots | 61.0% | 27-20 |
| 1981-11-29 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets | 86.9% | 0-25 |
| 1981-11-29 | Atlanta FalconsatHouston Oilers | 49.8% | 31-27 |
| 1981-11-29 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 77.8% | 35-23 |
| 1981-11-29 | Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks | 44.4% | 32-31 |
| 1981-11-29 | Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers | 72.5% | 0-24 |
| 1981-11-29 | New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers | 72.4% | 10-17 |
| 1981-11-30 | Philadelphia EaglesatMiami Dolphins | 49.5% | 10-13 |
| 1981-12-03 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 56.8% | 13-17 |
| 1981-12-06 | San Francisco 49ersatCincinnati Bengals | 67.9% | 21-3 |
| 1981-12-06 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 41.2% | 9-10 |
| 1981-12-06 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 66.9% | 28-27 |
| 1981-12-06 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 59.5% | 13-16 |
| 1981-12-06 | Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 51.5% | 23-24 |
| 1981-12-06 | New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 73.4% | 3-30 |
| 1981-12-06 | Dallas CowboysatBaltimore Colts | 14.7% | 37-13 |
| 1981-12-06 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 38.5% | 13-15 |
| 1981-12-06 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 75.2% | 14-24 |
| 1981-12-06 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants | 55.4% | 7-10 |
| 1981-12-06 | New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks | 39.4% | 23-27 |
| 1981-12-06 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 41.3% | 17-31 |
| 1981-12-07 | Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders | 47.6% | 27-30 |
| 1981-12-12 | New York JetsatCleveland Browns | 46.9% | 14-13 |
| 1981-12-12 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 64.4% | 7-45 |
| 1981-12-13 | Chicago BearsatOakland Raidersshock | 80.1% | 23-6 |
| 1981-12-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 59.7% | 17-10 |
| 1981-12-13 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 41.3% | 19-10 |
| 1981-12-13 | Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos | 76.6% | 13-23 |
| 1981-12-13 | San Diego ChargersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 47.0% | 24-23 |
| 1981-12-13 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 62.5% | 20-10 |
| 1981-12-13 | Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs | 57.3% | 17-7 |
| 1981-12-13 | Baltimore ColtsatWashington Redskins | 81.7% | 14-38 |
| 1981-12-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 69.0% | 10-21 |
| 1981-12-13 | Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints | 42.7% | 35-7 |
| 1981-12-13 | Houston OilersatSan Francisco 49ers | 78.1% | 6-28 |
| 1981-12-14 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 48.9% | 16-21 |
| 1981-12-19 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 63.7% | 6-16 |
| 1981-12-19 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 34.3% | 10-13 |
| 1981-12-20 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 19.2% | 21-17 |
| 1981-12-20 | Denver BroncosatChicago Bears | 36.0% | 24-35 |
| 1981-12-20 | Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons | 44.6% | 30-28 |
| 1981-12-20 | Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks | 56.8% | 21-42 |
| 1981-12-20 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions | 66.4% | 20-17 |
| 1981-12-20 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 73.7% | 0-38 |
| 1981-12-20 | Kansas City ChiefsatMinnesota Vikings | 49.2% | 10-6 |
| 1981-12-20 | New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts | 39.3% | 21-23 |
| 1981-12-20 | Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.5% | 30-7 |
| 1981-12-20 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Jets | 66.8% | 3-28 |
| 1981-12-20 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 41.2% | 20-21 |
| 1981-12-21 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 71.3% | 10-23 |
| 1981-12-27 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 61.5% | 31-27 |
| 1981-12-27 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 69.0% | 27-21 |
| 1982-01-02 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys | 76.8% | 0-38 |
| 1982-01-02 | San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins | 60.6% | 41-38 |
| 1982-01-03 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 67.8% | 21-28 |
| 1982-01-03 | New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers | 71.3% | 24-38 |
| 1982-01-10 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 62.5% | 7-27 |
| 1982-01-10 | Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers | 56.5% | 27-28 |
| 1982-01-24 | Cincinnati BengalsvsSan Francisco 49ers | 48.3% | 21-26 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.