The expectation ledger

The 1979 season, against expectation

Every game of 1979scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19781980→
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2248
Market Brier
0.2202
Longest odds beaten
11.4%
Atlanta Falcons

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1979.

1
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
11
exp 8.92
2
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
12
exp 10.13
3
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
9
exp 7.19
4
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 8.29
5
Houston Oilers
Houston
11
exp 9.34
6
Chicago Bears
Chicago
10
exp 8.44
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
10
exp 8.66
8
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
9
exp 7.78
9
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
8
exp 7.39
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
12
exp 11.39
11
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
7
exp 6.46
12
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
9
exp 8.53
Show all 28 rows
13
Denver Broncos
Denver
10
exp 9.61
14
New York Jets
New York
8
exp 7.66
15
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
11
exp 10.84
16
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
7
exp 6.94
17
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
5
exp 5.30
18
Miami Dolphins
Miami
10
exp 10.33
19
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 6.46
20
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
7
exp 7.53
21
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
9
exp 9.66
22
New England Patriots
Boston
9
exp 9.77
23
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
6
exp 7.41
24
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
5
exp 6.70
25
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
4
exp 5.81
26
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
5
exp 6.89
27
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
2
exp 4.37
28
Detroit Lions
Detroit
2
exp 6.20

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1979 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1979-09-01Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers44.7%16-31
1979-09-02San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings74.8%22-28
1979-09-02Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears62.4%3-6
1979-09-02Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos70.7%0-10
1979-09-02Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills37.9%9-7
1979-09-02Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets59.7%25-22
1979-09-02Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals33.7%22-21
1979-09-02San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks50.6%33-16
1979-09-02Baltimore ColtsatKansas City Chiefs57.6%0-14
1979-09-02Houston OilersatWashington Redskins45.3%29-27
1979-09-02New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.8%17-23
1979-09-02Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints56.7%40-34
1979-09-02Oakland RaidersatLos Angeles Rams63.2%24-17
1979-09-03Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots41.2%16-13
1979-09-06Los Angeles RamsatDenver Broncos65.7%13-9
1979-09-09Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears57.3%7-26
1979-09-09Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills50.2%24-51
1979-09-09Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs49.2%27-24
1979-09-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBaltimore Colts56.6%29-26
1979-09-09St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants51.6%27-14
1979-09-09Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers60.6%10-30
1979-09-09Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions58.7%27-24
1979-09-09Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins74.5%10-19
1979-09-09New York JetsatNew England Patriots68.4%3-56
1979-09-09New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers62.1%19-28
1979-09-09Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers73.3%7-38
1979-09-09Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers20.3%21-13
1979-09-10Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles63.6%14-10
1979-09-16San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams82.7%24-27
1979-09-16Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys78.2%20-24
1979-09-16New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals42.5%20-14
1979-09-16Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers78.1%19-27
1979-09-16Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons51.7%20-17
1979-09-16Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns75.7%10-13
1979-09-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers64.3%21-10
1979-09-16Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals31.6%24-21
1979-09-16Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers76.8%6-20
1979-09-16Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings43.9%27-12
1979-09-16Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints46.3%26-14
1979-09-16Detroit LionsatNew York Jets60.2%10-31
1979-09-16Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks45.3%10-27
1979-09-17New York GiantsatWashington Redskins69.6%0-27
1979-09-23Chicago BearsatMiami Dolphins72.3%16-31
1979-09-23Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals39.0%30-27
1979-09-23New York JetsatBuffalo Bills54.9%31-46
1979-09-23Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos72.4%34-37
1979-09-23Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers44.3%6-21
1979-09-23Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals59.6%17-7
1979-09-23San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots54.5%21-27
1979-09-23Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs43.6%7-35
1979-09-23Baltimore ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers91.0%13-17
1979-09-23Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants37.9%17-13
1979-09-23Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions46.8%23-24
1979-09-23Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings62.7%21-27
1979-09-23New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers54.1%30-21
1979-09-24Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns36.1%7-26
1979-09-30San Francisco 49ersatSan Diego Chargers87.0%9-31
1979-09-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears59.6%17-13
1979-09-30Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys84.2%13-38
1979-09-30Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts46.3%31-13
1979-09-30Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders42.9%3-27
1979-09-30Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers62.2%10-31
1979-09-30St. Louis CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams68.6%0-21
1979-09-30Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks63.4%24-6
1979-09-30Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons55.0%16-7
1979-09-30Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets33.3%27-33
1979-09-30Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles34.7%14-17
1979-09-30New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints66.0%14-24
1979-09-30Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions51.8%13-10
1979-10-01New England PatriotsatGreen Bay Packers34.8%14-27
1979-10-07Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills60.7%7-0
1979-10-07Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals48.7%10-7
1979-10-07San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos52.4%0-7
1979-10-07Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns36.9%51-35
1979-10-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants35.9%14-17
1979-10-07St. Louis CardinalsatHouston Oilersshock78.0%24-17
1979-10-07New York JetsatBaltimore Colts41.3%8-10
1979-10-07Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.6%17-28
1979-10-07Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings36.1%36-20
1979-10-07Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons60.8%7-25
1979-10-07Detroit LionsatNew England Patriots77.7%17-24
1979-10-07Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints41.4%35-17
1979-10-07Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers43.2%35-24
1979-10-08Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders46.6%3-13
1979-10-14San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants68.2%16-32
1979-10-14New England PatriotsatChicago Bears50.4%27-7
1979-10-14Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengalsshock18.7%10-34
1979-10-14Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins73.5%7-17
1979-10-14Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs48.3%24-10
1979-10-14Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns57.4%13-9
1979-10-14New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.9%42-14
1979-10-14Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals46.0%24-20
1979-10-14Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers75.0%10-20
1979-10-14Houston OilersatBaltimore Colts30.4%28-16
1979-10-14Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys71.1%6-30
1979-10-14Atlanta FalconsatOakland Raiders65.8%19-50
1979-10-14Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers64.1%16-24
1979-10-15Minnesota VikingsatNew York Jets57.8%7-14
1979-10-21Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings56.0%27-30
1979-10-21Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns65.2%27-28
1979-10-21Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills73.0%14-13
1979-10-21Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.7%3-21
1979-10-21St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys83.7%13-22
1979-10-21San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Rams55.1%40-16
1979-10-21New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs70.2%21-17
1979-10-21Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins53.1%7-17
1979-10-21Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots60.7%13-28
1979-10-21Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets47.0%19-28
1979-10-21Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints69.2%7-17
1979-10-21Houston OilersatSeattle Seahawks39.7%14-34
1979-10-21Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers33.6%15-20
1979-10-22Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers67.0%7-42
1979-10-25San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders46.2%22-45
1979-10-28Philadelphia EaglesatCincinnati Bengals42.0%13-37
1979-10-28Buffalo BillsatDetroit Lions49.1%20-17
1979-10-28Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos75.5%3-20
1979-10-28Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals53.7%38-20
1979-10-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings58.4%12-10
1979-10-28New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts24.1%26-31
1979-10-28New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins72.0%14-10
1979-10-28Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers56.8%3-14
1979-10-28Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins76.6%7-27
1979-10-28New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams74.0%20-14
1979-10-28New York JetsatHouston Oilers65.2%24-27
1979-10-28Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers37.5%28-27
1979-10-29Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons53.6%31-28
1979-11-04San Francisco 49ersatOakland Raiders87.1%10-23
1979-11-04Detroit LionsatChicago Bears73.4%7-35
1979-11-04Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Colts44.5%28-38
1979-11-04New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills40.1%26-6
1979-11-04New Orleans SaintsatDenver Broncos71.1%3-10
1979-11-04Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles58.9%24-19
1979-11-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons51.4%14-17
1979-11-04Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Cardinals56.6%7-37
1979-11-04San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs36.5%20-14
1979-11-04Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers77.8%7-38
1979-11-04Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants27.5%16-14
1979-11-04New York JetsatGreen Bay Packers48.2%27-22
1979-11-04Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks59.5%24-0
1979-11-05Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins62.9%9-6
1979-11-11San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints81.1%20-31
1979-11-11Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears52.0%23-27
1979-11-11San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals38.5%26-24
1979-11-11Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets69.4%14-12
1979-11-11New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos57.5%10-45
1979-11-11Seattle SeahawksatCleveland Browns71.9%29-24
1979-11-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions40.8%16-14
1979-11-11St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins68.7%28-30
1979-11-11Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs21.0%30-3
1979-11-11Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins77.5%0-19
1979-11-11Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants58.5%3-24
1979-11-11Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers55.7%7-19
1979-11-11Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers58.4%17-31
1979-11-12Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboysshock79.5%31-21
1979-11-18New York JetsatChicago Bears60.4%13-23
1979-11-18Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers76.6%21-42
1979-11-18Green Bay PackersatBuffalo Bills63.2%12-19
1979-11-18Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns52.8%24-30
1979-11-18New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers61.7%3-31
1979-11-18St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.9%13-16
1979-11-18Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers43.4%7-35
1979-11-18Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raidersshock77.5%24-21
1979-11-18Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots80.7%21-50
1979-11-18Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins45.2%20-34
1979-11-18Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings68.3%7-14
1979-11-18New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks58.0%24-38
1979-11-18Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers17.0%38-28
1979-11-19Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams72.5%14-20
1979-11-22Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions31.6%0-20
1979-11-22Houston OilersatDallas Cowboys59.4%30-24
1979-11-25St. Louis CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals58.1%28-34
1979-11-25Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots75.8%16-13
1979-11-25Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos72.8%14-10
1979-11-25Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers76.6%30-33
1979-11-25Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers71.1%23-22
1979-11-25Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers84.1%7-28
1979-11-25Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts35.6%28-24
1979-11-25Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants40.3%6-14
1979-11-25Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers37.1%21-10
1979-11-25New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons49.7%37-6
1979-11-25Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers26.0%26-20
1979-11-26New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks64.0%7-30
1979-11-29New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins58.5%24-39
1979-12-02San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Cardinals78.3%10-13
1979-12-02Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers61.8%14-0
1979-12-02Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers85.1%17-37
1979-12-02Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills41.2%19-16
1979-12-02Houston OilersatCleveland Browns46.5%7-14
1979-12-02Atlanta FalconsatSan Diego Chargersshock88.6%28-26
1979-12-02Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs43.7%21-37
1979-12-02Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets69.1%17-30
1979-12-02Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins78.1%21-38
1979-12-02New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys74.5%7-28
1979-12-02Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles83.4%7-44
1979-12-02Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams74.0%21-27
1979-12-03Oakland RaidersatNew Orleans Saints52.2%42-35
1979-12-08Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks41.4%23-28
1979-12-08Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles57.9%24-17
1979-12-09Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers40.2%15-14
1979-12-09Cincinnati BengalsatWashington Redskins72.9%14-28
1979-12-09Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings50.6%3-10
1979-12-09Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders61.4%14-19
1979-12-09New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals57.6%20-29
1979-12-09San Diego ChargersatNew Orleans Saints37.4%35-0
1979-12-09Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Colts46.1%10-7
1979-12-09Miami DolphinsatDetroit Lions27.1%28-10
1979-12-09Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons37.5%34-13
1979-12-09New England PatriotsatNew York Jets47.4%26-27
1979-12-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers32.8%7-23
1979-12-10Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers45.9%17-20
1979-12-15New York JetsatMiami Dolphins75.4%27-24
1979-12-15Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions54.8%18-13
1979-12-16San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons67.8%21-31
1979-12-16St. Louis CardinalsatChicago Bears67.0%6-42
1979-12-16Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals42.6%12-16
1979-12-16Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers84.8%0-28
1979-12-16Kansas City ChiefsatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.3%0-3
1979-12-16Baltimore ColtsatNew York Giants69.8%31-7
1979-12-16Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys66.7%34-35
1979-12-16Philadelphia EaglesatHouston Oilers67.1%26-20
1979-12-16Minnesota VikingsatNew England Patriots73.1%23-27
1979-12-16Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders68.9%29-24
1979-12-16New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams73.4%29-14
1979-12-17Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers67.8%7-17
1979-12-23Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles66.6%17-27
1979-12-23Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers60.4%7-13
1979-12-29Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers34.5%17-24
1979-12-29Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers68.5%17-14
1979-12-30Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys72.2%21-19
1979-12-30Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers73.7%14-34
1980-01-06Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers47.2%9-0
1980-01-06Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers69.7%13-27
1980-01-20Los Angeles RamsvsPittsburgh Steelers71.6%19-31

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.