The expectation ledger

The 1978 season, against expectation

Every game of 1978scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19771979→
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2218
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
9.4%
New Orleans Saints

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1978.

1
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
14
exp 11.41
2
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
9
exp 6.49
3
New York Jets
New York
8
exp 6.03
4
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
9
exp 7.27
5
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
7
exp 5.44
6
Houston Oilers
Houston
10
exp 8.68
7
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
9
exp 7.75
8
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
8.5
exp 7.34
9
New England Patriots
Boston
11
exp 9.94
10
Miami Dolphins
Miami
11
exp 10.06
11
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
12
exp 11.12
12
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
9
exp 8.21
Show all 28 rows
13
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
12
exp 11.27
14
Detroit Lions
Detroit
7
exp 6.49
15
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
8
exp 7.94
16
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
6
exp 6.33
17
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
5
exp 5.63
18
Chicago Bears
Chicago
7
exp 7.93
19
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
4
exp 4.93
20
Denver Broncos
Denver
10
exp 10.94
21
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
8.5
exp 9.47
22
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 7.22
23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
5
exp 6.26
24
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
9
exp 10.50
25
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
8
exp 9.68
26
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
5
exp 7.19
27
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
4
exp 6.69
28
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
2
exp 5.78

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1978 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1978-09-02New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.9%19-13
1978-09-03San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns61.4%7-24
1978-09-03St. Louis CardinalsatChicago Bears62.3%10-17
1978-09-03Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals78.3%24-23
1978-09-03Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills31.5%28-17
1978-09-03Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos58.4%6-14
1978-09-03San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks43.6%24-20
1978-09-03Washington RedskinsatNew England Patriots59.7%16-14
1978-09-03Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets28.3%20-33
1978-09-03Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles38.6%16-14
1978-09-03Houston OilersatAtlanta Falcons48.9%14-20
1978-09-03Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions66.3%13-7
1978-09-03Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints27.9%24-31
1978-09-04Baltimore ColtsatDallas Cowboys73.2%0-38
1978-09-09Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.7%15-7
1978-09-10Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns53.8%10-13
1978-09-10New York JetsatBuffalo Bills54.2%21-20
1978-09-10New England PatriotsatSt. Louis Cardinals49.3%16-6
1978-09-10Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers45.3%21-20
1978-09-10Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs42.6%20-17
1978-09-10Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts58.3%42-0
1978-09-10Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins74.2%30-35
1978-09-10Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants27.4%34-24
1978-09-10Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams73.7%0-10
1978-09-10New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers65.2%17-28
1978-09-10Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers83.0%10-21
1978-09-10Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers48.2%16-13
1978-09-11Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings44.0%9-12
1978-09-17San Francisco 49ersatHouston Oilers72.7%19-20
1978-09-17Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions45.6%19-0
1978-09-17Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals48.5%28-3
1978-09-17Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins84.8%24-31
1978-09-17San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos74.1%14-27
1978-09-17Cleveland BrownsatAtlanta Falcons54.3%24-16
1978-09-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikingsshock86.3%16-10
1978-09-17Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals41.3%28-10
1978-09-17Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Giants65.3%10-26
1978-09-17Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams47.6%14-27
1978-09-17Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints48.7%24-17
1978-09-17Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets63.6%24-17
1978-09-17Oakland RaidersatGreen Bay Packers32.9%28-3
1978-09-18Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots68.1%34-27
1978-09-24San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants63.7%10-27
1978-09-24New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals78.1%20-18
1978-09-24Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills35.0%17-24
1978-09-24Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs23.6%23-17
1978-09-24Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers71.6%9-15
1978-09-24Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers43.3%9-14
1978-09-24St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys86.0%12-21
1978-09-24Green Bay PackersatSan Diego Chargers70.5%24-3
1978-09-24New York JetsatWashington Redskins83.2%3-23
1978-09-24Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles39.0%3-17
1978-09-24Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks58.3%16-28
1978-09-24New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders73.8%21-14
1978-09-24Los Angeles RamsatHouston Oilers44.1%10-6
1978-09-25Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears65.0%24-20
1978-10-01Oakland RaidersatChicago Bears48.8%25-19
1978-10-01Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills61.0%13-28
1978-10-01Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos84.4%7-28
1978-10-01Houston OilersatCleveland Browns59.8%16-13
1978-10-01Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers34.4%24-7
1978-10-01St. Louis CardinalsatMiami Dolphins77.3%10-24
1978-10-01San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots73.1%23-28
1978-10-01Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Colts60.3%17-14
1978-10-01New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons53.0%20-23
1978-10-01Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets23.3%28-17
1978-10-01Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers68.9%14-35
1978-10-01Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints20.6%26-20
1978-10-01Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers49.1%12-28
1978-10-02Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins48.8%5-9
1978-10-08San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams84.6%10-27
1978-10-08Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers53.8%14-24
1978-10-08Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets53.6%14-45
1978-10-08Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers29.6%0-23
1978-10-08Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints36.7%24-16
1978-10-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatKansas City Chiefs59.6%30-13
1978-10-08Baltimore ColtsatSt. Louis Cardinals48.5%30-17
1978-10-08Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions26.0%21-19
1978-10-08New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys81.6%3-24
1978-10-08Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriots68.2%14-24
1978-10-08Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh Steelers82.8%7-31
1978-10-08Houston OilersatOakland Raiders70.9%17-21
1978-10-08Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks39.0%28-29
1978-10-09Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins75.0%0-21
1978-10-15New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals37.5%10-3
1978-10-15Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers78.8%10-17
1978-10-15Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns39.6%34-14
1978-10-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants69.2%14-17
1978-10-15Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals21.4%24-21
1978-10-15Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers45.9%28-21
1978-10-15Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders90.6%6-28
1978-10-15New York JetsatBaltimore Colts73.4%33-10
1978-10-15Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles40.3%10-17
1978-10-15Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons68.5%0-14
1978-10-15Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers69.5%28-45
1978-10-15Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings41.7%34-17
1978-10-15New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers71.0%14-7
1978-10-16Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos74.0%7-16
1978-10-22Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers42.9%19-33
1978-10-22Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills51.1%0-5
1978-10-22Denver BroncosatBaltimore Colts35.1%6-7
1978-10-22Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs31.9%3-17
1978-10-22St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Jets68.7%10-23
1978-10-22San Diego ChargersatDetroit Lions41.4%14-31
1978-10-22Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants40.0%6-17
1978-10-22Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys78.3%7-14
1978-10-22Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots58.7%24-33
1978-10-22Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings60.2%7-21
1978-10-22Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks27.2%7-27
1978-10-22New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Ramsshock90.6%10-3
1978-10-22Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers51.0%20-17
1978-10-23Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers77.3%24-17
1978-10-26Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys76.0%21-10
1978-10-29San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins81.0%20-38
1978-10-29Detroit LionsatChicago Bears68.4%21-17
1978-10-29Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals34.7%13-28
1978-10-29Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns70.3%20-41
1978-10-29Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks36.8%20-17
1978-10-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers71.6%7-9
1978-10-29St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles77.7%16-10
1978-10-29San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders78.1%27-23
1978-10-29Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers89.5%24-27
1978-10-29Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins74.9%8-26
1978-10-29New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints47.8%17-28
1978-10-29New York JetsatNew England Patriots78.7%21-55
1978-10-30Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons33.6%7-15
1978-11-05San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons75.2%10-21
1978-11-05Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears57.1%31-29
1978-11-05Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers63.3%13-22
1978-11-05New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills23.2%14-10
1978-11-05New York JetsatDenver Broncosshock80.4%31-28
1978-11-05Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers66.9%10-14
1978-11-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Rams84.0%23-26
1978-11-05New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals48.2%10-20
1978-11-05Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs28.4%20-10
1978-11-05Dallas CowboysatMiami Dolphins53.7%16-23
1978-11-05Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles55.1%3-10
1978-11-05Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings80.4%7-17
1978-11-05New Orleans SaintsatPittsburgh Steelers83.4%14-20
1978-11-06Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts41.0%17-21
1978-11-12Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings80.3%14-17
1978-11-12Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills23.9%25-24
1978-11-12Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns40.8%19-7
1978-11-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions60.2%23-34
1978-11-12Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers78.0%23-29
1978-11-12Baltimore ColtsatSeattle Seahawks57.9%17-14
1978-11-12New York GiantsatWashington Redskins73.9%13-16
1978-11-12Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers39.9%42-14
1978-11-12New York JetsatPhiladelphia Eagles62.4%9-17
1978-11-12Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints48.5%20-17
1978-11-12Houston OilersatNew England Patriots71.4%26-23
1978-11-12Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams54.1%7-10
1978-11-12St. Louis CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers51.3%16-10
1978-11-13Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals36.9%34-21
1978-11-19Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears43.7%7-13
1978-11-19Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers85.5%6-7
1978-11-19Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers62.3%10-31
1978-11-19Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos78.6%3-16
1978-11-19Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Colts64.0%45-24
1978-11-19St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins75.4%27-17
1978-11-19San Diego ChargersatMinnesota Vikings73.2%13-7
1978-11-19Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs42.0%13-10
1978-11-19New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys84.4%7-27
1978-11-19Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants48.8%19-17
1978-11-19New England PatriotsatNew York Jets35.9%19-17
1978-11-19Detroit LionsatOakland Raiders80.4%17-29
1978-11-19Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers20.8%31-28
1978-11-20Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers51.5%30-35
1978-11-23Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions29.0%14-17
1978-11-23Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys75.6%10-37
1978-11-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears64.6%3-14
1978-11-26Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers80.8%10-17
1978-11-26New York GiantsatBuffalo Bills45.6%17-41
1978-11-26Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns38.0%19-30
1978-11-26Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals52.9%14-10
1978-11-26San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs29.9%0-23
1978-11-26New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts33.5%35-14
1978-11-26New York JetsatMiami Dolphinsshock78.4%24-13
1978-11-26New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons70.7%17-20
1978-11-26Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers41.9%10-10
1978-11-26Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders78.0%17-16
1978-11-27Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers19.1%24-7
1978-12-03San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints69.8%13-24
1978-12-03Atlanta FalconsatCincinnati Bengals43.2%7-37
1978-12-03Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs58.4%10-14
1978-12-03Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders57.5%21-6
1978-12-03Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks51.1%24-47
1978-12-03Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers48.9%17-7
1978-12-03Detroit LionsatSt. Louis Cardinals62.8%14-21
1978-12-03Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets68.0%16-24
1978-12-03Miami DolphinsatWashington Redskins51.8%16-0
1978-12-03New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys62.5%10-17
1978-12-03Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings63.6%27-28
1978-12-03Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants29.1%20-17
1978-12-03Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers49.9%13-3
1978-12-04Chicago BearsatSan Diego Chargers62.4%7-40
1978-12-09Baltimore ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers87.5%13-35
1978-12-09Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions37.1%14-45
1978-12-10Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears52.4%0-14
1978-12-10Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots88.0%24-26
1978-12-10Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos87.4%3-24
1978-12-10New York JetsatCleveland Browns57.7%34-37
1978-12-10St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants46.3%0-17
1978-12-10Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers59.8%10-37
1978-12-10Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons57.5%17-20
1978-12-10Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles37.4%31-13
1978-12-10Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins63.1%6-23
1978-12-10Houston OilersatNew Orleans Saints37.8%17-12
1978-12-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers52.6%3-6
1978-12-11Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Ramsshock80.5%20-19
1978-12-16Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins61.5%14-10
1978-12-16Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos53.4%21-17
1978-12-17San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions76.4%14-33
1978-12-17Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals51.2%16-48
1978-12-17Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts66.6%21-14
1978-12-17New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers50.4%17-10
1978-12-17Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Cardinals53.9%21-42
1978-12-17San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers66.7%45-24
1978-12-17Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks72.9%19-23
1978-12-17Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets29.6%30-7
1978-12-17New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.8%3-20
1978-12-17Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams78.0%14-31
1978-12-17Minnesota VikingsatOakland Raiders61.4%20-27
1978-12-18New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins56.2%3-23
1978-12-24Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins72.1%17-9
1978-12-24Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons48.6%13-14
1978-12-30Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers69.2%10-33
1978-12-30Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys87.1%20-27
1978-12-31Houston OilersatNew England Patriots64.0%31-14
1978-12-31Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams72.5%10-34
1979-01-07Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams45.4%28-0
1979-01-07Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers73.7%5-34
1979-01-21Dallas CowboysvsPittsburgh Steelers47.5%31-35

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.