The expectation ledger

The 1977 season, against expectation

Every game of 1977scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19761978→
Games
203
Model Brier
0.1935
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
10.7%
Buffalo Bills

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1977.

1
Denver Broncos
Denver
12
exp 8.79
2
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
12
exp 9.36
3
Chicago Bears
Chicago
9
exp 7.10
4
Miami Dolphins
Miami
10
exp 8.49
5
Houston Oilers
Houston
8
exp 6.81
6
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
5
exp 3.92
7
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
7
exp 6.11
8
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
9
exp 8.13
9
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
11
exp 10.29
10
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 9.35
11
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
8
exp 7.66
12
New England Patriots
Boston
9
exp 8.73
Show all 28 rows
13
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
10
exp 9.74
14
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
9
exp 8.92
15
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
7
exp 7.02
16
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
9
exp 9.25
17
New York Giants
New York
5
exp 5.36
18
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
5
exp 5.71
19
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
6
exp 6.84
20
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6
exp 6.85
21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
2
exp 2.96
22
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
3
exp 4.12
23
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
7
exp 8.26
24
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
4
exp 5.32
25
New York Jets
New York
3
exp 4.35
26
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
5
exp 6.69
27
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
3
exp 5.35
28
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
2
exp 4.56

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1977 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1977-09-18Detroit LionsatChicago Bears58.8%20-30
1977-09-18Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals71.9%13-3
1977-09-18Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills41.9%13-0
1977-09-18St. Louis CardinalsatDenver Broncos55.1%0-7
1977-09-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles76.7%3-13
1977-09-18San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders84.1%0-24
1977-09-18Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots74.3%17-21
1977-09-18Baltimore ColtsatSeattle Seahawks23.5%29-14
1977-09-18Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants39.1%17-20
1977-09-18Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings66.1%16-10
1977-09-18Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons32.7%6-17
1977-09-18New York JetsatHouston Oilers73.1%0-20
1977-09-18Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints53.4%24-20
1977-09-19San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers78.6%0-27
1977-09-24Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers17.3%9-3
1977-09-25Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Cardinals66.1%13-16
1977-09-25Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals87.0%20-42
1977-09-25Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos80.5%6-26
1977-09-25San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs58.8%23-7
1977-09-25Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets27.9%20-12
1977-09-25Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins72.4%6-10
1977-09-25New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys79.4%21-41
1977-09-25Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams75.7%0-20
1977-09-25New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions70.2%19-23
1977-09-25Houston OilersatGreen Bay Packers53.4%16-10
1977-09-25Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers56.9%16-7
1977-09-25Miami DolphinsatSan Francisco 49ers51.8%19-15
1977-09-26New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns53.0%27-30
1977-10-02San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams73.3%14-34
1977-10-02New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears74.2%42-24
1977-10-02Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers47.3%3-24
1977-10-02Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts84.9%14-17
1977-10-02Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks22.4%24-13
1977-10-02Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns45.1%28-14
1977-10-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys91.9%7-23
1977-10-02St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins59.4%14-24
1977-10-02Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins64.5%7-27
1977-10-02Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions66.0%13-17
1977-10-02New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons60.3%3-17
1977-10-02New England PatriotsatNew York Jets29.0%27-30
1977-10-02Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings80.4%7-19
1977-10-03Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs19.9%37-28
1977-10-09Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers43.8%17-7
1977-10-09New York JetsatBuffalo Bills58.2%24-19
1977-10-09Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos79.9%7-23
1977-10-09Oakland RaidersatCleveland Browns31.3%26-10
1977-10-09Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers19.2%10-0
1977-10-09Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals46.6%30-24
1977-10-09San Diego ChargersatNew Orleans Saints45.3%14-0
1977-10-09Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts62.7%28-45
1977-10-09Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants59.3%28-10
1977-10-09Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings76.7%7-14
1977-10-09Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots87.3%0-31
1977-10-09Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers34.7%10-27
1977-10-09Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers58.6%7-0
1977-10-10Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears37.4%23-24
1977-10-16San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants51.4%17-20
1977-10-16Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings80.6%16-22
1977-10-16Atlanta FalconsatBuffalo Bills38.5%0-3
1977-10-16Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders78.0%30-7
1977-10-16Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers63.2%24-23
1977-10-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSeattle Seahawks61.2%23-30
1977-10-16St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles48.7%21-17
1977-10-16New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers57.4%24-20
1977-10-16Baltimore ColtsatKansas City Chiefs27.8%17-6
1977-10-16Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys67.2%16-34
1977-10-16New York JetsatMiami Dolphins79.2%17-21
1977-10-16Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions68.3%6-10
1977-10-16New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams81.5%7-14
1977-10-17Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers69.4%14-20
1977-10-23Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears55.9%16-10
1977-10-23Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals45.1%24-13
1977-10-23Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills36.6%27-16
1977-10-23Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers37.1%13-0
1977-10-23New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals77.5%31-49
1977-10-23Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers76.6%21-16
1977-10-23Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots50.1%3-17
1977-10-23New York GiantsatWashington Redskinsshock80.3%17-6
1977-10-23Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles27.6%16-10
1977-10-23Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins87.8%13-31
1977-10-23Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets20.1%28-27
1977-10-23Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers73.9%10-27
1977-10-23Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers49.9%7-28
1977-10-24Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams52.7%3-35
1977-10-30Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers58.2%26-0
1977-10-30Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals60.3%10-13
1977-10-30Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks50.6%17-56
1977-10-30Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos55.7%24-14
1977-10-30Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns74.8%7-44
1977-10-30San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins69.5%14-13
1977-10-30Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Colts52.5%21-31
1977-10-30Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins72.3%17-23
1977-10-30Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys83.9%0-37
1977-10-30Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons42.6%14-7
1977-10-30New York JetsatNew England Patriots83.7%13-24
1977-10-30Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints25.5%26-27
1977-10-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers84.4%10-20
1977-10-31New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals73.9%0-28
1977-11-06San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons61.7%10-3
1977-11-06Chicago BearsatHouston Oilers64.9%0-47
1977-11-06Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns61.9%10-7
1977-11-06Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriotsshock89.3%24-14
1977-11-06Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos59.7%7-21
1977-11-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Rams93.6%0-31
1977-11-06St. Louis CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings67.2%27-7
1977-11-06San Diego ChargersatDetroit Lions50.8%0-20
1977-11-06Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefs61.8%10-20
1977-11-06Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants23.8%24-10
1977-11-06Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets33.3%14-10
1977-11-06New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles62.7%7-28
1977-11-06Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders93.7%7-44
1977-11-07Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts72.0%3-10
1977-11-13San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints42.5%10-7
1977-11-13Kansas City ChiefsatChicago Bears62.5%27-28
1977-11-13Cincinnati BengalsatMinnesota Vikings63.5%10-42
1977-11-13Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills21.6%31-13
1977-11-13Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers33.1%17-14
1977-11-13Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers69.7%31-35
1977-11-13New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers32.0%10-0
1977-11-13Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles46.6%17-14
1977-11-13New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins61.1%5-17
1977-11-13Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons55.6%6-17
1977-11-13Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets66.3%17-0
1977-11-13Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers24.3%24-6
1977-11-13Houston OilersatOakland Raiders81.5%29-34
1977-11-14St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys70.6%24-17
1977-11-20Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears35.9%7-10
1977-11-20Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals50.3%17-23
1977-11-20New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills32.4%20-7
1977-11-20Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs24.4%14-7
1977-11-20Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants44.4%21-7
1977-11-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions86.3%7-16
1977-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals83.7%16-21
1977-11-20Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers24.1%7-12
1977-11-20New York JetsatBaltimore Colts90.8%12-33
1977-11-20Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers53.3%13-28
1977-11-20Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints42.9%20-21
1977-11-20Houston OilersatSeattle Seahawks35.1%22-10
1977-11-20Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers39.5%23-10
1977-11-21Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins81.4%9-10
1977-11-24Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions58.8%31-14
1977-11-24Miami DolphinsatSt. Louis Cardinals69.3%55-14
1977-11-27New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengals77.3%13-30
1977-11-27Baltimore ColtsatDenver Broncos61.7%13-27
1977-11-27Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns44.4%9-0
1977-11-27Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers23.5%17-0
1977-11-27San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks36.9%30-28
1977-11-27Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers76.8%20-34
1977-11-27Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins44.8%14-7
1977-11-27Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriots76.1%6-14
1977-11-27Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets17.8%23-20
1977-11-27Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers26.2%13-6
1977-11-27New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers73.5%17-20
1977-11-28Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders92.5%13-34
1977-12-04San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings74.1%27-28
1977-12-04Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers19.1%10-0
1977-12-04Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs35.2%27-7
1977-12-04Washington RedskinsatBuffalo Bills32.0%10-0
1977-12-04Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers38.7%24-14
1977-12-04Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers55.4%14-37
1977-12-04St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants30.8%7-27
1977-12-04Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys86.1%14-24
1977-12-04New England PatriotsatAtlanta Falcons46.5%16-10
1977-12-04New York JetsatNew Orleans Saints64.7%16-13
1977-12-04Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers46.6%9-10
1977-12-04Oakland RaidersatLos Angeles Rams55.2%14-20
1977-12-04Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers90.5%20-30
1977-12-05Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins57.1%6-17
1977-12-10Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals47.9%10-17
1977-12-10Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals60.8%26-20
1977-12-11Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears78.8%10-21
1977-12-11Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets62.5%14-10
1977-12-11San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos81.0%9-17
1977-12-11Houston OilersatCleveland Browns54.5%19-15
1977-12-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saintsshock79.1%33-14
1977-12-11Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs65.0%34-31
1977-12-11Detroit LionsatBaltimore Coltsshock82.6%13-10
1977-12-11Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots49.9%10-14
1977-12-11New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles55.1%14-17
1977-12-11Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams84.9%7-23
1977-12-11Minnesota VikingsatOakland Raiders70.2%13-35
1977-12-12Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers33.2%42-35
1977-12-17Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins89.1%14-31
1977-12-17Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskins39.5%14-17
1977-12-17Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions38.9%30-21
1977-12-18San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers40.2%14-16
1977-12-18Chicago BearsatNew York Giants45.8%12-9
1977-12-18Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers52.5%16-21
1977-12-18Denver BroncosatDallas Cowboys52.7%6-14
1977-12-18Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks39.3%19-20
1977-12-18St. Louis CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneersshock20.7%7-17
1977-12-18Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers43.0%10-9
1977-12-18Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders91.8%20-21
1977-12-18New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts58.8%24-30
1977-12-18New York JetsatPhiladelphia Eagles72.3%0-27
1977-12-18New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons78.9%7-35
1977-12-24Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos67.4%21-34
1977-12-24Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Colts45.8%37-31
1977-12-26Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys79.7%7-37
1977-12-26Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams69.7%14-7
1978-01-01Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos59.0%17-20
1978-01-01Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys69.5%6-23
1978-01-15Denver BroncosvsDallas Cowboys49.5%10-27

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.