The expectation ledger

The 1976 season, against expectation

Every game of 1976scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19751977→
Games
203
Model Brier
0.1782
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
15.1%
New England Patriots

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1976.

1
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
11
exp 9.42
2
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
10
exp 8.55
3
Denver Broncos
Denver
9
exp 7.61
4
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
6
exp 5.66
5
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
5
exp 4.81
6
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
4
exp 4.42
7
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
5
exp 5.78
8
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
2
exp 3.61
9
Houston Oilers
Houston
5
exp 7.25

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1976 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1976-09-12San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers63.4%26-14
1976-09-12Detroit LionsatChicago Bears46.7%3-10
1976-09-12Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals71.0%7-17
1976-09-12New York JetsatCleveland Browns63.5%17-38
1976-09-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Oilers86.7%0-20
1976-09-12St. Louis CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks23.5%30-24
1976-09-12San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs65.0%30-16
1976-09-12Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots39.4%27-13
1976-09-12New York GiantsatWashington Redskins72.8%17-19
1976-09-12Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys77.8%7-27
1976-09-12Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons34.5%30-14
1976-09-12Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders48.8%28-31
1976-09-12Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints24.3%40-9
1976-09-13Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills49.8%30-21
1976-09-19Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Colts60.2%27-28
1976-09-19Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills51.9%13-3
1976-09-19New York JetsatDenver Broncos70.0%3-46
1976-09-19Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers83.7%14-31
1976-09-19San Diego ChargersatTampa Bay Buccaneers39.3%23-0
1976-09-19Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Cardinals78.6%0-29
1976-09-19Seattle SeahawksatWashington Redskins85.0%7-31
1976-09-19Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints20.5%24-6
1976-09-19Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots28.4%14-30
1976-09-19New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles66.1%7-20
1976-09-19Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions65.9%10-24
1976-09-19Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings59.1%10-10
1976-09-19Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers63.1%19-12
1976-09-20Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs28.4%24-21
1976-09-26San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks38.8%37-21
1976-09-26Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears66.1%10-0
1976-09-26Green Bay PackersatCincinnati Bengals79.2%7-28
1976-09-26Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers28.8%14-9
1976-09-26Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos64.3%13-44
1976-09-26St. Louis CardinalsatSan Diego Chargers40.1%24-43
1976-09-26New Orleans SaintsatKansas City Chiefs67.9%27-17
1976-09-26Baltimore ColtsatDallas Cowboys67.5%27-30
1976-09-26New York JetsatMiami Dolphins84.4%0-16
1976-09-26New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams85.5%10-24
1976-09-26Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions39.0%10-9
1976-09-26New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelersshock84.9%30-27
1976-09-26Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers53.3%14-13
1976-09-27Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles51.1%20-17
1976-10-03Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears40.7%7-33
1976-10-03Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns36.4%45-24
1976-10-03Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills76.6%17-50
1976-10-03San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos60.7%0-26
1976-10-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBaltimore Colts90.2%17-42
1976-10-03New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals79.2%21-27
1976-10-03Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks12.8%28-13
1976-10-03Los Angeles RamsatMiami Dolphins51.9%31-28
1976-10-03Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons55.2%14-13
1976-10-03Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers46.5%14-24
1976-10-03Oakland RaidersatNew England Patriots35.5%17-48
1976-10-03Houston OilersatNew Orleans Saints28.8%31-26
1976-10-03New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers72.1%6-17
1976-10-04Pittsburgh SteelersatMinnesota Vikings56.8%6-17
1976-10-10Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings81.8%19-20
1976-10-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCincinnati Bengals91.6%0-21
1976-10-10Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets34.1%14-17
1976-10-10Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers67.9%3-17
1976-10-10Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns27.5%16-18
1976-10-10St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles46.5%33-14
1976-10-10Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers41.3%27-17
1976-10-10Kansas City ChiefsatWashington Redskinsshock79.1%33-30
1976-10-10Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts60.4%14-28
1976-10-10Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants11.7%24-14
1976-10-10Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints48.6%0-30
1976-10-10New England PatriotsatDetroit Lions50.2%10-30
1976-10-10Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers78.8%20-27
1976-10-11San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams16-0
1976-10-17Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams77.2%12-20
1976-10-17Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers60.1%6-23
1976-10-17Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills43.5%31-13
1976-10-17Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos44.9%17-10
1976-10-17Cleveland BrownsatAtlanta Falcons20-17
1976-10-17Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.5%13-10
1976-10-17Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals45.4%17-21
1976-10-17Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers36.4%27-30
1976-10-17Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphinsshock81.1%20-17
1976-10-17Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins59.2%7-20
1976-10-17Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers55.1%13-28
1976-10-17New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings88.4%7-24
1976-10-17New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers74.9%3-33
1976-10-18New York JetsatNew England Patriots75.9%7-41
1976-10-23Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers77.8%0-15
1976-10-24Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys21-31
1976-10-24Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers60.2%27-7
1976-10-24New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills54.4%26-22
1976-10-24Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs44.8%35-26
1976-10-24San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns54.1%17-21
1976-10-24Miami DolphinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers20.6%23-20
1976-10-24Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets21.3%20-0
1976-10-24Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles31-12
1976-10-24Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants12.5%27-0
1976-10-24Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks31.4%41-14
1976-10-24Green Bay PackersatOakland Raiders80.5%14-18
1976-10-24Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints26.6%16-10
1976-10-25St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins46.5%10-20
1976-10-31San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Cardinals63.2%20-23
1976-10-31Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears27.0%13-14
1976-10-31Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals80.2%6-21
1976-10-31New York JetsatBuffalo Bills75.0%19-14
1976-10-31Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders74.7%6-19
1976-10-31Kansas City ChiefsatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.4%28-19
1976-10-31San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers81.9%0-23
1976-10-31Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins40.5%20-7
1976-10-31New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins61.1%3-10
1976-10-31Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants49.9%10-0
1976-10-31New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons59.5%20-23
1976-10-31Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions64.6%6-27
1976-10-31Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams92.8%6-45
1976-11-01Houston OilersatBaltimore Colts70.7%14-38
1976-11-07Oakland RaidersatChicago Bears31.8%28-27
1976-11-07Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots70.2%10-20
1976-11-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDenver Broncos88.7%13-48
1976-11-07Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers72.2%21-7
1976-11-07Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals76.4%14-17
1976-11-07Baltimore ColtsatSan Diego Chargers29.4%37-21
1976-11-07Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs23.4%45-0
1976-11-07New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys92.0%3-9
1976-11-07Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets32.1%27-7
1976-11-07Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks39.9%13-30
1976-11-07Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings78.8%23-31
1976-11-07New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers68.7%27-32
1976-11-07Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers61.9%24-21
1976-11-08Los Angeles RamsatCincinnati Bengals60.0%12-20
1976-11-14San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons35.0%16-21
1976-11-14Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears61.1%13-24
1976-11-14Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals78.1%27-31
1976-11-14Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers47.5%17-0
1976-11-14Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns65.9%3-24
1976-11-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Jets76.0%0-34
1976-11-14St. Louis CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams62.2%30-28
1976-11-14Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders87.9%10-21
1976-11-14New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts78.1%21-14
1976-11-14Washington RedskinsatNew York Giantsshock17.4%9-12
1976-11-14Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers3-14
1976-11-14Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints37.3%16-17
1976-11-14Seattle SeahawksatMinnesota Vikings93.6%21-27
1976-11-15Buffalo BillsatDallas Cowboys10-17
1976-11-21Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions62.2%10-14
1976-11-21Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs21.7%27-24
1976-11-21San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills60.0%34-13
1976-11-21New York GiantsatDenver Broncos81.5%13-14
1976-11-21Cleveland BrownsatTampa Bay Buccaneers19.5%24-7
1976-11-21Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals71.6%16-10
1976-11-21Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falconsshock18.1%10-17
1976-11-21Oakland RaidersatPhiladelphia Eagles25.6%26-7
1976-11-21New England PatriotsatNew York Jets31.1%38-24
1976-11-21Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers24.2%17-10
1976-11-21New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks48.2%51-27
1976-11-21Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers82.3%16-32
1976-11-21Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers43.8%23-3
1976-11-22Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins47.5%17-16
1976-11-25Buffalo BillsatDetroit Lions75.7%14-27
1976-11-25St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys69.6%14-19
1976-11-28Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers52.4%16-10
1976-11-28Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals54.1%7-3
1976-11-28Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots63.8%14-38
1976-11-28Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns53.3%13-17
1976-11-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatOakland Raiders96.2%16-49
1976-11-28Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers69.1%23-20
1976-11-28New York JetsatBaltimore Colts89.6%16-33
1976-11-28Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins76.9%0-24
1976-11-28Atlanta FalconsatHouston Oilers69.2%14-20
1976-11-28Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants72.0%16-28
1976-11-28New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams85.4%14-33
1976-11-29Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers28.4%16-20
1976-12-04Baltimore ColtsatSt. Louis Cardinals46.7%17-24
1976-12-04Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams85.2%0-59
1976-12-05San Francisco 49ersatSan Diego Chargers49.4%7-13
1976-12-05Chicago BearsatSeattle Seahawks26.0%34-7
1976-12-05Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins80.4%27-45
1976-12-05Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos75.8%16-17
1976-12-05Houston OilersatCleveland Browns63.7%10-13
1976-12-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPittsburgh Steelers97.0%0-42
1976-12-05Washington RedskinsatNew York Jets37-16
1976-12-05Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles26-7
1976-12-05Detroit LionsatNew York Giants10-24
1976-12-05Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings87.8%9-20
1976-12-05New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots83.8%6-27
1976-12-06Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders20-35
1976-12-11Minnesota VikingsatMiami Dolphins41.9%29-7
1976-12-11Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions35.9%20-17
1976-12-11Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers27.1%21-0
1976-12-12San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints44.7%27-7
1976-12-12Denver BroncosatChicago Bears55.3%28-14
1976-12-12Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets19.7%42-3
1976-12-12Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts88.2%20-58
1976-12-12Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs37.7%14-39
1976-12-12New England PatriotsatTampa Bay Buccaneers31-14
1976-12-12St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants18.2%17-14
1976-12-12San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders86.5%0-24
1976-12-12Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys27-14
1976-12-12Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles78.1%10-27
1976-12-12Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons59.4%24-20
1976-12-18Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings70.1%20-35
1976-12-18New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders71.4%21-24
1976-12-19Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Colts45.4%40-14
1976-12-19Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys56.8%14-12
1976-12-26Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders51.7%7-24
1976-12-26Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings65.4%13-24
1977-01-09Oakland RaidersvsMinnesota Vikings48.3%32-14

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.