The expectation ledger
The 1975 season, against expectation
Every game of 1975scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
189
Model Brier
0.1863
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.4%
Green Bay Packers
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1975.
Show all 26 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1975 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975-09-21 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 73.8% | 17-27 |
| 1975-09-21 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears | 57.8% | 35-7 |
| 1975-09-21 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 66.8% | 17-24 |
| 1975-09-21 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 62.4% | 14-42 |
| 1975-09-21 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 65.1% | 33-37 |
| 1975-09-21 | Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 71.8% | 20-23 |
| 1975-09-21 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers | 29.2% | 37-0 |
| 1975-09-21 | New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins | 76.4% | 3-41 |
| 1975-09-21 | Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys | 59.0% | 7-18 |
| 1975-09-21 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 74.1% | 23-14 |
| 1975-09-21 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 54.3% | 30-16 |
| 1975-09-21 | Houston OilersatNew England Patriots | 61.6% | 7-0 |
| 1975-09-22 | Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins | 60.2% | 31-21 |
| 1975-09-28 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears | 42.3% | 13-15 |
| 1975-09-28 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew Orleans Saints | 46.4% | 21-0 |
| 1975-09-28 | Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers | 76.0% | 30-21 |
| 1975-09-28 | Minnesota VikingsatCleveland Browns | 36.3% | 42-10 |
| 1975-09-28 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 69.3% | 31-37 |
| 1975-09-28 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 71.3% | 17-33 |
| 1975-09-28 | New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs | 58.6% | 30-24 |
| 1975-09-28 | Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Colts | 28.4% | 31-20 |
| 1975-09-28 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 81.6% | 13-49 |
| 1975-09-28 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 39.6% | 22-14 |
| 1975-09-28 | Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons | 40.4% | 17-14 |
| 1975-09-28 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 46.5% | 23-14 |
| 1975-09-29 | Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos | 69.0% | 13-23 |
| 1975-10-05 | San Francisco 49ersatKansas City Chiefs | 56.8% | 20-3 |
| 1975-10-05 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 87.9% | 3-28 |
| 1975-10-05 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 53.5% | 21-19 |
| 1975-10-05 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 64.1% | 14-38 |
| 1975-10-05 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 30.7% | 42-6 |
| 1975-10-05 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 72.7% | 14-26 |
| 1975-10-05 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 22.9% | 6-0 |
| 1975-10-05 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 78.8% | 13-24 |
| 1975-10-05 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 34.6% | 10-26 |
| 1975-10-05 | Miami DolphinsatGreen Bay Packers | 33.0% | 31-7 |
| 1975-10-05 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 57.5% | 7-14 |
| 1975-10-05 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 64.0% | 7-36 |
| 1975-10-06 | Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions | 51.2% | 36-10 |
| 1975-10-12 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 79.6% | 7-27 |
| 1975-10-12 | New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals | 77.0% | 10-27 |
| 1975-10-12 | Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts | 33.5% | 38-31 |
| 1975-10-12 | Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers | 76.2% | 9-20 |
| 1975-10-12 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 44.4% | 40-10 |
| 1975-10-12 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Diego Chargers | 30.9% | 13-10 |
| 1975-10-12 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 22.6% | 10-42 |
| 1975-10-12 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 25.6% | 13-7 |
| 1975-10-12 | Philadelphia EaglesatMiami Dolphins | 78.0% | 16-24 |
| 1975-10-12 | New York JetsatMinnesota Vikings | 75.7% | 21-29 |
| 1975-10-12 | Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints | 56.6% | 19-20 |
| 1975-10-12 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 68.2% | 17-3 |
| 1975-10-13 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 67.3% | 17-27 |
| 1975-10-19 | Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Steelers | 90.4% | 3-34 |
| 1975-10-19 | Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals | 54.1% | 10-14 |
| 1975-10-19 | Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos | 75.5% | 15-16 |
| 1975-10-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 63.5% | 20-31 |
| 1975-10-19 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 47.6% | 12-10 |
| 1975-10-19 | Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots | 61.7% | 10-21 |
| 1975-10-19 | Washington RedskinsatHouston Oilers | 50.3% | 10-13 |
| 1975-10-19 | Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboysshock | 85.6% | 19-17 |
| 1975-10-19 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 37.7% | 43-0 |
| 1975-10-19 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 76.9% | 7-22 |
| 1975-10-19 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 74.4% | 19-25 |
| 1975-10-19 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.3% | 21-35 |
| 1975-10-20 | New York GiantsatBuffalo Billsshock | 84.0% | 17-14 |
| 1975-10-25 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 42.7% | 20-13 |
| 1975-10-26 | San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots | 54.9% | 16-24 |
| 1975-10-26 | Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons | 37.6% | 21-14 |
| 1975-10-26 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 45.3% | 35-30 |
| 1975-10-26 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 54.2% | 13-26 |
| 1975-10-26 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 29.5% | 23-7 |
| 1975-10-26 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 85.0% | 0-25 |
| 1975-10-26 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets | 71.3% | 45-28 |
| 1975-10-26 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 35.3% | 20-17 |
| 1975-10-26 | Detroit LionsatHouston Oilers | 63.1% | 8-24 |
| 1975-10-26 | Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers | 27.0% | 16-13 |
| 1975-10-26 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 84.5% | 14-38 |
| 1975-10-27 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 18.0% | 13-9 |
| 1975-11-01 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Giants | 63.8% | 24-35 |
| 1975-11-02 | Miami DolphinsatChicago Bears | 14.9% | 46-13 |
| 1975-11-02 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 50.5% | 30-24 |
| 1975-11-02 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 39.7% | 24-23 |
| 1975-11-02 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 40.6% | 42-17 |
| 1975-11-02 | Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Colts | 68.4% | 7-21 |
| 1975-11-02 | New England PatriotsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 71.2% | 17-24 |
| 1975-11-02 | Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs | 48.5% | 17-13 |
| 1975-11-02 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 53.7% | 24-30 |
| 1975-11-02 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 51.4% | 7-23 |
| 1975-11-02 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 26.5% | 28-17 |
| 1975-11-02 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 51.0% | 28-17 |
| 1975-11-03 | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 35.5% | 42-3 |
| 1975-11-09 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Ramsshock | 84.3% | 24-23 |
| 1975-11-09 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 45.9% | 14-27 |
| 1975-11-09 | Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos | 39.9% | 17-16 |
| 1975-11-09 | Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 75.5% | 42-35 |
| 1975-11-09 | Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions | 81.2% | 10-21 |
| 1975-11-09 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 40.9% | 24-23 |
| 1975-11-09 | New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers | 45.2% | 33-19 |
| 1975-11-09 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 30.5% | 21-13 |
| 1975-11-09 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 88.0% | 7-27 |
| 1975-11-09 | Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings | 87.7% | 0-38 |
| 1975-11-09 | New Orleans SaintsatOakland Raiders | 85.1% | 10-48 |
| 1975-11-09 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 73.1% | 17-24 |
| 1975-11-10 | Kansas City ChiefsatDallas Cowboys | 76.9% | 34-31 |
| 1975-11-16 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 40.4% | 27-17 |
| 1975-11-16 | Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders | 90.1% | 17-38 |
| 1975-11-16 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 49.2% | 17-20 |
| 1975-11-16 | Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers | 82.3% | 3-28 |
| 1975-11-16 | New York JetsatBaltimore Colts | 67.0% | 19-52 |
| 1975-11-16 | Dallas CowboysatNew England Patriots | 40.2% | 34-31 |
| 1975-11-16 | Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers | 40.1% | 19-20 |
| 1975-11-16 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 56.0% | 13-10 |
| 1975-11-16 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 27.0% | 16-7 |
| 1975-11-16 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 77.9% | 10-13 |
| 1975-11-16 | Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints | 21.1% | 20-7 |
| 1975-11-16 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 70.4% | 3-31 |
| 1975-11-17 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 67.6% | 24-33 |
| 1975-11-23 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 49.5% | 16-6 |
| 1975-11-23 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 90.0% | 10-38 |
| 1975-11-23 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 21.7% | 23-35 |
| 1975-11-23 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 68.1% | 31-45 |
| 1975-11-23 | Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons | 46.8% | 21-35 |
| 1975-11-23 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Jets | 33.8% | 37-6 |
| 1975-11-23 | San Diego ChargersatMinnesota Vikings | 93.4% | 13-28 |
| 1975-11-23 | Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs | 52.3% | 21-24 |
| 1975-11-23 | Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphinsshock | 82.6% | 33-17 |
| 1975-11-23 | Oakland RaidersatWashington Redskins | 54.1% | 26-23 |
| 1975-11-23 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 79.7% | 17-27 |
| 1975-11-23 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 58.4% | 14-40 |
| 1975-11-24 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 40.6% | 32-9 |
| 1975-11-27 | Buffalo BillsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 67.2% | 32-14 |
| 1975-11-27 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 42.0% | 20-0 |
| 1975-11-30 | San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 52.8% | 17-27 |
| 1975-11-30 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 69.9% | 7-28 |
| 1975-11-30 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 60.5% | 19-23 |
| 1975-11-30 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 76.9% | 10-13 |
| 1975-11-30 | New Orleans SaintsatCleveland Browns | 60.7% | 16-17 |
| 1975-11-30 | Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Colts | 65.1% | 14-28 |
| 1975-11-30 | Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins | 45.5% | 30-31 |
| 1975-11-30 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 86.9% | 3-14 |
| 1975-11-30 | Atlanta FalconsatOakland Raiders | 86.5% | 34-37 |
| 1975-11-30 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets | 14.8% | 20-7 |
| 1975-12-01 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 83.0% | 7-20 |
| 1975-12-07 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 31.6% | 21-25 |
| 1975-12-07 | Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 40.8% | 31-0 |
| 1975-12-07 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 69.3% | 21-31 |
| 1975-12-07 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 92.5% | 17-31 |
| 1975-12-07 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 49.4% | 17-31 |
| 1975-12-07 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefsshock | 81.8% | 28-20 |
| 1975-12-07 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Giants | 29.4% | 21-0 |
| 1975-12-07 | Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons | 31.3% | 30-27 |
| 1975-12-07 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 68.0% | 30-28 |
| 1975-12-07 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 87.3% | 3-24 |
| 1975-12-07 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 18.6% | 14-7 |
| 1975-12-07 | Houston OilersatSan Francisco 49ers | 45.7% | 27-13 |
| 1975-12-08 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 84.2% | 10-17 |
| 1975-12-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 76.8% | 14-35 |
| 1975-12-13 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 56.3% | 10-31 |
| 1975-12-14 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 55.5% | 9-31 |
| 1975-12-14 | St. Louis CardinalsatChicago Bears | 25.1% | 34-20 |
| 1975-12-14 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 37.8% | 34-14 |
| 1975-12-14 | Philadelphia EaglesatDenver Broncos | 61.7% | 10-25 |
| 1975-12-14 | Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns | 48.4% | 14-40 |
| 1975-12-14 | Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts | 47.0% | 7-10 |
| 1975-12-14 | New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants | 57.4% | 14-28 |
| 1975-12-14 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 29.3% | 10-17 |
| 1975-12-14 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 87.2% | 5-22 |
| 1975-12-14 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 72.9% | 27-26 |
| 1975-12-15 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 52.4% | 16-24 |
| 1975-12-20 | Minnesota VikingsatBuffalo Bills | 48.1% | 35-13 |
| 1975-12-20 | Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins | 81.6% | 13-14 |
| 1975-12-20 | Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams | 48.5% | 3-10 |
| 1975-12-21 | Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints | 60.4% | 42-17 |
| 1975-12-21 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 85.4% | 17-47 |
| 1975-12-21 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 80.1% | 10-21 |
| 1975-12-21 | St. Louis CardinalsatDetroit Lions | 47.3% | 24-13 |
| 1975-12-21 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 86.3% | 20-28 |
| 1975-12-21 | New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts | 82.7% | 21-34 |
| 1975-12-21 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 81.2% | 26-3 |
| 1975-12-21 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets | 24.1% | 31-21 |
| 1975-12-21 | Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers | 56.4% | 13-22 |
| 1975-12-21 | New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.2% | 26-23 |
| 1975-12-27 | St. Louis CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams | 71.0% | 23-35 |
| 1975-12-27 | Baltimore ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers | 76.0% | 10-28 |
| 1975-12-28 | Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders | 68.4% | 28-31 |
| 1975-12-28 | Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings | 67.5% | 17-14 |
| 1976-01-04 | Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams | 68.4% | 37-7 |
| 1976-01-04 | Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers | 69.0% | 10-16 |
| 1976-01-18 | Dallas CowboysvsPittsburgh Steelers | 58.8% | 17-21 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.