The expectation ledger

The 1974 season, against expectation

Every game of 1974scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19731975→
Games
189
Model Brier
0.2142
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
9.1%
Houston Oilers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1974.

1
Houston Oilers
Houston
7
exp 4.09
2
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
12
exp 9.90
3
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
10
exp 8.23
4
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 8.49
5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
10.5
exp 9.20
6
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
9
exp 7.92
7
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
7
exp 5.92
8
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
5
exp 4.18
9
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
10
exp 9.66
10
Denver Broncos
Denver
7.5
exp 7.28
11
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
10
exp 9.80
12
Miami Dolphins
Miami
11
exp 10.82
Show all 22 rows
13
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
5
exp 4.83
14
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
8
exp 8.27
15
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
6
exp 6.95
16
Chicago Bears
Chicago
4
exp 5.20
17
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
7
exp 8.27
18
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
5
exp 6.69
19
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
4
exp 6.05
20
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
2
exp 4.42
21
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
3
exp 5.82
22
New York Giants
New York
2
exp 5.05

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1974 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1974-09-15San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints54.1%17-13
1974-09-15Detroit LionsatChicago Bears39.9%9-17
1974-09-15Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals64.6%7-33
1974-09-15Los Angeles RamsatDenver Broncos46.9%17-10
1974-09-15Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals63.3%3-7
1974-09-15San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers50.6%14-21
1974-09-15New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs70.9%16-24
1974-09-15Baltimore ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers76.7%0-30
1974-09-15Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants37.8%13-10
1974-09-15Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons47.2%24-0
1974-09-15Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots23.5%24-34
1974-09-15Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers37.6%32-17
1974-09-16Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills49.7%20-21
1974-09-22San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons59.8%16-10
1974-09-22New York JetsatChicago Bears59.1%23-21
1974-09-22San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengalsshock85.2%20-17
1974-09-22Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills42.5%24-16
1974-09-22Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos47.3%35-35
1974-09-22Houston OilersatCleveland Browns80.0%7-20
1974-09-22St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins75.7%17-10
1974-09-22Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders66.0%7-27
1974-09-22Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts54.1%20-13
1974-09-22New England PatriotsatNew York Giants53.8%28-20
1974-09-22Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions38.1%7-6
1974-09-22New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams83.7%0-24
1974-09-23Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles28.2%10-13
1974-09-29Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings85.9%7-11
1974-09-29New York JetsatBuffalo Bills69.6%12-16
1974-09-29Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals56.0%7-29
1974-09-29Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers21.8%28-21
1974-09-29Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers32.6%17-7
1974-09-29Baltimore ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles63.5%10-30
1974-09-29New York GiantsatDallas Cowboysshock83.5%14-6
1974-09-29Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints50.6%13-14
1974-09-29Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers57.0%19-21
1974-09-29Los Angeles RamsatNew England Patriots36.8%14-20
1974-09-29Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers57.4%17-0
1974-09-29Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers51.4%21-3
1974-09-30Denver BroncosatWashington Redskins65.8%3-30
1974-10-06New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears57.9%10-24
1974-10-06Washington RedskinsatCincinnati Bengals61.5%17-28
1974-10-06Buffalo BillsatGreen Bay Packers54.6%27-7
1974-10-06Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs64.9%17-14
1974-10-06Oakland RaidersatCleveland Browns38.3%40-24
1974-10-06Philadelphia EaglesatSan Diego Chargers48.0%13-7
1974-10-06Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots75.7%3-42
1974-10-06Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys46.6%23-21
1974-10-06Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants56.4%14-7
1974-10-06Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams75.4%13-16
1974-10-06Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers25.8%13-7
1974-10-06St. Louis CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers53.3%34-9
1974-10-07New York JetsatMiami Dolphins86.0%17-21
1974-10-13Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons67.0%10-13
1974-10-13Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns38.8%34-24
1974-10-13Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts32.1%27-14
1974-10-13New Orleans SaintsatDenver Broncos74.0%17-33
1974-10-13Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals58.7%28-31
1974-10-13Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers10.6%14-10
1974-10-13Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs51.3%34-24
1974-10-13Miami DolphinsatWashington Redskins42.4%17-20
1974-10-13New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles66.5%7-35
1974-10-13New England PatriotsatNew York Jets44.3%24-0
1974-10-13Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers35.7%6-17
1974-10-13Houston OilersatMinnesota Vikings92.5%10-51
1974-10-14San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions13-17
1974-10-20San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams78.1%14-37
1974-10-20Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders63.8%27-30
1974-10-20New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills61.8%28-30
1974-10-20San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos79.7%7-27
1974-10-20Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers76.4%16-20
1974-10-20St. Louis CardinalsatHouston Oilers23.2%31-27
1974-10-20Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins80.1%3-9
1974-10-20Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets65.8%35-20
1974-10-20New York GiantsatWashington Redskins80.7%3-24
1974-10-20Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys67.2%24-31
1974-10-20New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons73.9%13-3
1974-10-20Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings80.6%20-16
1974-10-21Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears48.8%9-10
1974-10-27Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills78.2%6-16
1974-10-27Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengalsshock90.9%34-21
1974-10-27Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns47.0%21-23
1974-10-27Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals57.4%20-23
1974-10-27Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers39.1%24-14
1974-10-27Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins88.3%7-17
1974-10-27Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants34.0%21-7
1974-10-27Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints50.3%10-14
1974-10-27Los Angeles RamsatNew York Jets25.9%20-13
1974-10-27Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions64.5%17-19
1974-10-27New England PatriotsatMinnesota Vikings72.1%17-14
1974-10-27Oakland RaidersatSan Francisco 49ers25.2%35-24
1974-10-28Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh Steelers77.0%17-24
1974-11-03Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears30.3%17-0
1974-11-03Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Colts33.3%24-14
1974-11-03Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots56.1%29-28
1974-11-03Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos35.7%28-17
1974-11-03Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers39.6%35-36
1974-11-03St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys58.4%14-17
1974-11-03New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs75.6%33-27
1974-11-03Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers44.8%17-6
1974-11-03Atlanta FalconsatMiami Dolphins84.5%7-42
1974-11-03Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers77.0%0-27
1974-11-03Houston OilersatNew York Jets59.0%27-22
1974-11-03New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions71.9%14-19
1974-11-04Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers31.1%15-13
1974-11-10San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys81.2%14-20
1974-11-10Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers66.7%3-20
1974-11-10Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals53.3%10-17
1974-11-10Houston OilersatBuffalo Billsshock84.5%21-9
1974-11-10Denver BroncosatBaltimore Colts39.5%17-6
1974-11-10Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots73.4%21-14
1974-11-10San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs76.2%14-7
1974-11-10Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles37.9%27-20
1974-11-10Miami DolphinsatNew Orleans Saints24.2%21-0
1974-11-10Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams80.7%0-21
1974-11-10New York JetsatNew York Giants69.1%26-20
1974-11-10Detroit LionsatOakland Raiders79.0%13-35
1974-11-11Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Cardinals50.0%28-24
1974-11-17San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears56.8%34-0
1974-11-17Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers34.1%3-20
1974-11-17Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins77.6%28-35
1974-11-17Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns42.1%26-16
1974-11-17St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles41.2%13-3
1974-11-17San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders91.7%10-17
1974-11-17Baltimore ColtsatAtlanta Falcons69.7%17-7
1974-11-17Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins61.3%21-28
1974-11-17New York GiantsatDetroit Lions78.2%19-20
1974-11-17New York JetsatNew England Patriots21-16
1974-11-17Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings80.8%19-7
1974-11-17Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints28.9%7-20
1974-11-18Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos71.1%42-34
1974-11-24Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions81.4%17-34
1974-11-24Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals71.5%6-33
1974-11-24Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns48.2%15-10
1974-11-24Denver BroncosatOakland Raidersshock84.6%20-17
1974-11-24St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants30.0%23-21
1974-11-24San Diego ChargersatGreen Bay Packers78.4%0-34
1974-11-24New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts43.0%27-17
1974-11-24Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins83.4%7-26
1974-11-24Dallas CowboysatHouston Oilers41.5%10-0
1974-11-24Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets18.5%14-17
1974-11-24Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams56.4%17-20
1974-11-24Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers65.9%0-27
1974-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints34.9%28-7
1974-11-28Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions62.5%31-27
1974-11-28Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys54.2%23-24
1974-12-01San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns57.1%0-7
1974-12-01New York GiantsatChicago Bears54.8%13-16
1974-12-01Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills81.8%0-6
1974-12-01Kansas City ChiefsatSt. Louis Cardinals76.4%17-13
1974-12-01San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets67.8%14-27
1974-12-01Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles41.1%14-36
1974-12-01Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons27.4%30-7
1974-12-01New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders80.1%26-41
1974-12-01New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings79.5%9-29
1974-12-01Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers82.4%13-10
1974-12-02Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins72.7%3-24
1974-12-07Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys77.2%17-41
1974-12-07Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings86.5%10-23
1974-12-08Chicago BearsatSan Diego Chargers57.6%21-28
1974-12-08Detroit LionsatCincinnati Bengals65.0%23-19
1974-12-08Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets39.8%10-20
1974-12-08Houston OilersatDenver Broncos68.6%14-37
1974-12-08St. Louis CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints39.2%0-14
1974-12-08Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs28.1%7-6
1974-12-08Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts16.8%17-16
1974-12-08Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants45.7%20-7
1974-12-08Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots43.3%21-17
1974-12-08Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers51.9%6-7
1974-12-09Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams57.2%23-17
1974-12-14Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers71.1%3-27
1974-12-14Minnesota VikingsatKansas City Chiefs38.5%35-15
1974-12-14Dallas CowboysatOakland Raiders70.0%23-27
1974-12-15Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins90.7%0-42
1974-12-15Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Rams67.5%14-19
1974-12-15Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers30.5%0-17
1974-12-15Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers59.0%24-28
1974-12-15New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals82.1%14-26
1974-12-15New York JetsatBaltimore Colts44.4%45-38
1974-12-15New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins82.8%27-34
1974-12-15Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles48.8%17-28
1974-12-15Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons39.0%3-10
1974-12-15New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers59.0%21-35
1974-12-21St. Louis CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings72.8%14-30
1974-12-21Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders60.4%26-28
1974-12-22Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers74.9%14-32
1974-12-22Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams51.4%10-19
1974-12-29Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders67.4%24-13
1974-12-29Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings62.6%10-14
1975-01-12Minnesota VikingsvsPittsburgh Steelers54.7%6-16

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.