The expectation ledger

The 1972 season, against expectation

Every game of 1972scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19711973→
Games
189
Model Brier
0.2065
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
7.7%
Buffalo Bills

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1972.

1
Miami Dolphins
Miami
14
exp 10.45
2
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
11
exp 7.50
3
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
10
exp 6.81
4
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
10
exp 7.58
5
New York Giants
New York
8
exp 5.91
6
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
10.5
exp 8.69
7
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
11
exp 9.25
8
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
4.5
exp 3.51
9
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
8
exp 7.26
10
Detroit Lions
Detroit
8.5
exp 8.21
11
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
8.5
exp 8.35
12
New York Jets
New York
7
exp 7.23
Show all 26 rows
13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
10
exp 10.27
14
Denver Broncos
Denver
5
exp 5.42
15
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
4.5
exp 5.05
16
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
8
exp 8.55
17
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
7
exp 7.58
18
Chicago Bears
Chicago
4.5
exp 5.34
19
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
4.5
exp 5.69
20
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
7
exp 8.70
21
New England Patriots
Boston
3
exp 4.72
22
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
6.5
exp 8.47
23
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
2.5
exp 4.49
24
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
2.5
exp 5.02
25
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
5
exp 7.55
26
Houston Oilers
Houston
1
exp 4.40

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1972 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1972-09-17Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears51.5%37-21
1972-09-17Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots60.2%31-7
1972-09-17New York JetsatBuffalo Bills39.0%41-24
1972-09-17Houston OilersatDenver Broncos61.2%17-30
1972-09-17Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns64.3%26-10
1972-09-17St. Louis CardinalsatBaltimore Colts78.3%10-3
1972-09-17Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs59.1%20-10
1972-09-17Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys80.1%6-28
1972-09-17New York GiantsatDetroit Lions76.7%16-30
1972-09-17Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers42.8%28-34
1972-09-17New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams77.2%14-34
1972-09-17San Diego ChargersatSan Francisco 49ers70.1%3-34
1972-09-18Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings67.1%24-21
1972-09-24San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills22.9%20-27
1972-09-24Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears35.7%13-13
1972-09-24Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals63.2%10-15
1972-09-24Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers59.4%14-37
1972-09-24Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.0%27-17
1972-09-24St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins69.3%10-24
1972-09-24New York JetsatBaltimore Colts69.8%44-34
1972-09-24Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants23.1%23-14
1972-09-24Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins82.5%13-34
1972-09-24Atlanta FalconsatNew England Patriots41.7%20-21
1972-09-24Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions56.4%34-10
1972-09-24Oakland RaidersatGreen Bay Packers56.6%20-14
1972-09-25Kansas City ChiefsatNew Orleans Saints39.4%20-17
1972-10-01San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints38.4%37-2
1972-10-01Detroit LionsatChicago Bears43.9%38-24
1972-10-01Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns59.3%6-27
1972-10-01Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills32.1%17-0
1972-10-01Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos41.3%45-24
1972-10-01Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals63.9%25-19
1972-10-01San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders66.8%17-17
1972-10-01Washington RedskinsatNew England Patriots35.8%23-24
1972-10-01Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers30.9%13-16
1972-10-01Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings59.5%16-14
1972-10-01Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons50.9%3-31
1972-10-01New York JetsatHouston Oilers40.4%20-26
1972-10-02New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles66.5%27-12
1972-10-08San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams55.2%7-31
1972-10-08Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers72.4%17-20
1972-10-08Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals66.8%10-21
1972-10-08New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills45.2%14-38
1972-10-08Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns49.3%31-7
1972-10-08St. Louis CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings78.6%19-17
1972-10-08San Diego ChargersatBaltimore Colts67.7%23-20
1972-10-08Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins79.1%0-14
1972-10-08Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys82.0%13-17
1972-10-08Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets41.0%27-17
1972-10-08Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons59.6%26-23
1972-10-08New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants66.6%21-45
1972-10-09Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers42.6%34-0
1972-10-15Chicago BearsatCleveland Browns71.6%17-0
1972-10-15Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs76.0%23-16
1972-10-15Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders82.7%16-28
1972-10-15Minnesota VikingsatDenver Broncos32.3%23-20
1972-10-15Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals42.8%33-3
1972-10-15San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins76.6%10-24
1972-10-15Dallas CowboysatBaltimore Colts40.4%21-0
1972-10-15Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles34.1%34-3
1972-10-15Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints33.7%21-14
1972-10-15New York JetsatNew England Patriots45.2%41-13
1972-10-15Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers68.2%7-24
1972-10-15New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers71.7%23-17
1972-10-16Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions67.4%24-23
1972-10-22Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Rams69.6%12-15
1972-10-22Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins89.7%23-24
1972-10-22Denver BroncosatOakland Raidersshock81.2%30-23
1972-10-22Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers49.8%23-17
1972-10-22St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants65.0%21-27
1972-10-22San Diego ChargersatDetroit Lions67.0%20-34
1972-10-22Philadelphia EaglesatKansas City Chiefsshock83.0%21-20
1972-10-22Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets59.9%20-24
1972-10-22Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins47.5%20-24
1972-10-22Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers54.6%10-9
1972-10-22New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers74.2%3-33
1972-10-22New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers80.0%20-20
1972-10-23Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears36.2%10-13
1972-10-29San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons66.0%49-14
1972-10-29Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Cardinals55.2%27-10
1972-10-29Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals78.0%7-30
1972-10-29Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills39.3%38-21
1972-10-29Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos54.3%27-20
1972-10-29Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers46.8%26-14
1972-10-29Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts35.8%23-0
1972-10-29Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants40.1%23-16
1972-10-29Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints54.1%3-21
1972-10-29New England PatriotsatNew York Jets81.0%10-34
1972-10-29Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers49.3%27-13
1972-10-29Los Angeles RamsatOakland Raiders49.6%17-45
1972-10-30Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys72.2%24-28
1972-11-05San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers48.6%24-34
1972-11-05Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions69.9%0-14
1972-11-05Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers58.1%17-40
1972-11-05Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills15.7%30-16
1972-11-05Denver BroncosatNew York Giants69.0%17-29
1972-11-05Houston OilersatCleveland Browns76.6%0-20
1972-11-05St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles54.6%6-6
1972-11-05Dallas CowboysatSan Diego Chargers28.5%34-28
1972-11-05Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs62.4%14-27
1972-11-05Washington RedskinsatNew York Jets44.4%35-17
1972-11-05Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams67.7%7-20
1972-11-05New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings84.5%6-37
1972-11-06Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots38.5%24-17
1972-11-12Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears54.0%23-17
1972-11-12Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals51.4%20-14
1972-11-12Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets81.4%3-41
1972-11-12Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Ramsshock82.1%16-10
1972-11-12St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys89.2%24-33
1972-11-12Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers48.9%7-16
1972-11-12New York GiantsatWashington Redskins80.2%13-27
1972-11-12New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins92.8%0-52
1972-11-12Philadelphia EaglesatHouston Oilers55.2%18-17
1972-11-12New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons74.9%20-36
1972-11-12Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings63.8%14-16
1972-11-12Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers64.6%21-24
1972-11-13Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers52.6%21-17
1972-11-19San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears46.0%34-21
1972-11-19Baltimore ColtsatCincinnati Bengals58.4%20-19
1972-11-19Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots59.3%27-24
1972-11-19Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos38.2%37-20
1972-11-19Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns52.0%24-26
1972-11-19New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals46.0%13-7
1972-11-19San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs78.3%27-17
1972-11-19Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles17.6%28-7
1972-11-19New York JetsatMiami Dolphins79.8%24-28
1972-11-19New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions83.8%14-27
1972-11-19Green Bay PackersatHouston Oilers30.6%23-10
1972-11-19Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams49.0%45-41
1972-11-20Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins79.9%13-24
1972-11-23San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys76.8%31-10
1972-11-23New York JetsatDetroit Lions67.4%20-37
1972-11-26Cincinnati BengalsatChicago Bears53.0%13-3
1972-11-26Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns81.8%10-27
1972-11-26Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons71.3%20-23
1972-11-26Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers79.2%20-34
1972-11-26Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders65.4%3-26
1972-11-26New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts82.0%0-31
1972-11-26Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins77.0%16-21
1972-11-26Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants76.9%10-62
1972-11-26Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints32.9%16-19
1972-11-26Minnesota VikingsatPittsburgh Steelers47.2%10-23
1972-11-27St. Louis CardinalsatMiami Dolphins90.9%10-31
1972-12-03Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings83.1%10-23
1972-12-03New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengals56.2%10-13
1972-12-03Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts80.8%7-35
1972-12-03Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs75.7%21-24
1972-12-03Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers65.8%0-30
1972-12-03Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals21.6%27-6
1972-12-03Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers40.7%21-19
1972-12-03Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles15.7%23-7
1972-12-03Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots11.0%37-21
1972-12-03Houston OilersatAtlanta Falcons82.7%10-20
1972-12-03New Orleans SaintsatNew York Jets76.2%17-18
1972-12-03Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers50.2%7-33
1972-12-04Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers72.4%26-16
1972-12-09Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals58.6%27-24
1972-12-09Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys54.2%24-34
1972-12-10Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.7%21-12
1972-12-10Detroit LionsatBuffalo Bills24.5%21-21
1972-12-10San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos46.9%13-38
1972-12-10Los Angeles RamsatSt. Louis Cardinals31.7%14-24
1972-12-10Baltimore ColtsatKansas City Chiefs61.9%10-24
1972-12-10Miami DolphinsatNew York Giants30.1%23-13
1972-12-10Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings65.9%23-7
1972-12-10New England PatriotsatNew Orleans Saints70.5%17-10
1972-12-10Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers19.1%9-3
1972-12-10Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers68.5%0-20
1972-12-11New York JetsatOakland Raiders74.1%16-24
1972-12-16Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins84.9%0-16
1972-12-16Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers61.9%17-20
1972-12-17Chicago BearsatOakland Raiders83.7%21-28
1972-12-17Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers30.6%61-17
1972-12-17Buffalo BillsatWashington Redskinsshock92.3%24-17
1972-12-17New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos73.8%21-45
1972-12-17Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets54.7%26-10
1972-12-17Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals69.9%23-24
1972-12-17Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers35.3%24-2
1972-12-17Kansas City ChiefsatAtlanta Falcons50.6%17-14
1972-12-17New York GiantsatDallas Cowboysshock82.0%23-3
1972-12-17Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams53.4%34-17
1972-12-17Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints22.8%30-20
1972-12-23Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers58.2%7-13
1972-12-23Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers55.8%30-28
1972-12-24Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins80.2%14-20
1972-12-24Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins61.4%3-16
1972-12-31Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins60.4%3-26
1972-12-31Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers45.6%21-17
1973-01-14Washington RedskinsvsMiami Dolphins61.3%7-14

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.