The expectation ledger
The 1971 season, against expectation
Every game of 1971scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
189
Model Brier
0.2072
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
9.3%
New England Patriots
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1971.
Show all 26 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1971 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1971-09-19 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 39.6% | 17-20 |
| 1971-09-19 | Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears | 70.0% | 15-17 |
| 1971-09-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatCincinnati Bengals | 71.9% | 14-37 |
| 1971-09-19 | Dallas CowboysatBuffalo Bills | 25.8% | 49-37 |
| 1971-09-19 | Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos | 48.5% | 10-10 |
| 1971-09-19 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 74.1% | 0-31 |
| 1971-09-19 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 63.6% | 24-17 |
| 1971-09-19 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 54.4% | 14-21 |
| 1971-09-19 | New York JetsatBaltimore Colts | 75.2% | 0-22 |
| 1971-09-19 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 51.0% | 42-40 |
| 1971-09-19 | Oakland RaidersatNew England Patriots | 30.8% | 6-20 |
| 1971-09-19 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 26.7% | 20-24 |
| 1971-09-20 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 54.4% | 16-13 |
| 1971-09-26 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 34.1% | 38-20 |
| 1971-09-26 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 80.6% | 20-17 |
| 1971-09-26 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 40.6% | 10-21 |
| 1971-09-26 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 35.0% | 29-14 |
| 1971-09-26 | Denver BroncosatGreen Bay Packers | 61.2% | 13-34 |
| 1971-09-26 | Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Colts | 71.3% | 14-13 |
| 1971-09-26 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 63.6% | 34-0 |
| 1971-09-26 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 35.9% | 20-16 |
| 1971-09-26 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 63.1% | 30-3 |
| 1971-09-26 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 27.0% | 42-7 |
| 1971-09-26 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 73.6% | 20-20 |
| 1971-09-26 | Detroit LionsatNew England Patriots | 31.7% | 34-7 |
| 1971-09-27 | New York JetsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 61.4% | 10-17 |
| 1971-10-03 | San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 29.9% | 31-3 |
| 1971-10-03 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 67.0% | 3-17 |
| 1971-10-03 | Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers | 59.2% | 17-20 |
| 1971-10-03 | Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings | 89.4% | 0-19 |
| 1971-10-03 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 39.4% | 16-3 |
| 1971-10-03 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 60.3% | 21-20 |
| 1971-10-03 | San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers | 45.8% | 17-21 |
| 1971-10-03 | Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots | 26.6% | 23-3 |
| 1971-10-03 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 70.0% | 20-16 |
| 1971-10-03 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 69.9% | 14-10 |
| 1971-10-03 | Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions | 77.9% | 38-41 |
| 1971-10-03 | New Orleans SaintsatHouston Oilers | 61.4% | 13-13 |
| 1971-10-04 | Oakland RaidersatCleveland Browns | 56.0% | 34-20 |
| 1971-10-10 | New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears | 74.6% | 14-35 |
| 1971-10-10 | Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals | 53.3% | 23-13 |
| 1971-10-10 | Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 19.6% | 43-0 |
| 1971-10-10 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 82.0% | 16-27 |
| 1971-10-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 70.4% | 17-27 |
| 1971-10-10 | St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons | 53.7% | 26-9 |
| 1971-10-10 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 71.3% | 10-31 |
| 1971-10-10 | Houston OilersatWashington Redskins | 82.9% | 13-22 |
| 1971-10-10 | Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 21.0% | 13-0 |
| 1971-10-10 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 42.3% | 0-20 |
| 1971-10-10 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 75.1% | 28-31 |
| 1971-10-10 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 61.8% | 20-13 |
| 1971-10-11 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 73.1% | 13-20 |
| 1971-10-17 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 47.4% | 27-24 |
| 1971-10-17 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 76.0% | 17-28 |
| 1971-10-17 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 47.1% | 16-20 |
| 1971-10-17 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 67.3% | 0-20 |
| 1971-10-17 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Giants | 37.7% | 31-7 |
| 1971-10-17 | Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints | 22.9% | 14-24 |
| 1971-10-17 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 76.7% | 3-41 |
| 1971-10-17 | Philadelphia EaglesatOakland Raiders | 88.0% | 10-34 |
| 1971-10-17 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 34.1% | 24-16 |
| 1971-10-17 | Detroit LionsatHouston Oilers | 24.2% | 31-7 |
| 1971-10-17 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 36.3% | 24-13 |
| 1971-10-17 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 68.4% | 0-13 |
| 1971-10-18 | Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs | 80.5% | 16-38 |
| 1971-10-23 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 78.2% | 3-20 |
| 1971-10-24 | San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 48.3% | 26-14 |
| 1971-10-24 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 78.2% | 28-23 |
| 1971-10-24 | Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders | 81.2% | 27-31 |
| 1971-10-24 | Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns | 76.2% | 27-0 |
| 1971-10-24 | Washington RedskinsatKansas City Chiefs | 59.9% | 20-27 |
| 1971-10-24 | New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys | 82.2% | 21-44 |
| 1971-10-24 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 45.0% | 30-14 |
| 1971-10-24 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 39.0% | 7-23 |
| 1971-10-24 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 62.1% | 6-28 |
| 1971-10-24 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 77.3% | 13-30 |
| 1971-10-24 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 66.8% | 16-23 |
| 1971-10-25 | Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings | 58.8% | 3-10 |
| 1971-10-31 | Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears | 48.1% | 19-23 |
| 1971-10-31 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 46.2% | 6-10 |
| 1971-10-31 | St. Louis CardinalsatBuffalo Bills | 32.1% | 28-23 |
| 1971-10-31 | Denver BroncosatPhiladelphia Eagles | 45.5% | 16-17 |
| 1971-10-31 | Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns | 66.4% | 31-14 |
| 1971-10-31 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 64.1% | 21-49 |
| 1971-10-31 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 59.4% | 20-20 |
| 1971-10-31 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Colts | 84.8% | 21-34 |
| 1971-10-31 | New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins | 84.0% | 14-24 |
| 1971-10-31 | Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Rams | 65.8% | 20-14 |
| 1971-10-31 | Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants | 25.8% | 17-10 |
| 1971-10-31 | New England PatriotsatSan Francisco 49ers | 85.0% | 10-27 |
| 1971-11-01 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 37.8% | 14-14 |
| 1971-11-07 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 69.4% | 13-9 |
| 1971-11-07 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 68.5% | 17-14 |
| 1971-11-07 | Atlanta FalconsatCincinnati Bengals | 50.3% | 9-6 |
| 1971-11-07 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 90.7% | 0-34 |
| 1971-11-07 | Detroit LionsatDenver Broncos | 37.6% | 24-20 |
| 1971-11-07 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 54.5% | 9-26 |
| 1971-11-07 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 47.5% | 16-13 |
| 1971-11-07 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Giants | 50.0% | 17-35 |
| 1971-11-07 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 28.9% | 10-13 |
| 1971-11-07 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 84.1% | 7-7 |
| 1971-11-07 | Houston OilersatNew England Patriots | 60.7% | 20-28 |
| 1971-11-07 | Oakland RaidersatNew Orleans Saints | 24.0% | 21-21 |
| 1971-11-08 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 67.0% | 17-24 |
| 1971-11-14 | Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears | 48.7% | 15-16 |
| 1971-11-14 | Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos | 65.3% | 24-10 |
| 1971-11-14 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 73.3% | 33-38 |
| 1971-11-14 | Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs | 81.1% | 7-13 |
| 1971-11-14 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets | 26.3% | 14-13 |
| 1971-11-14 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 82.7% | 7-20 |
| 1971-11-14 | Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins | 80.0% | 21-24 |
| 1971-11-14 | New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons | 63.7% | 21-17 |
| 1971-11-14 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 63.1% | 21-13 |
| 1971-11-14 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 81.1% | 0-3 |
| 1971-11-14 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 87.9% | 21-41 |
| 1971-11-14 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 87.5% | 26-20 |
| 1971-11-15 | St. Louis CardinalsatSan Diego Chargers | 56.4% | 17-20 |
| 1971-11-21 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 61.8% | 6-17 |
| 1971-11-21 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 49.3% | 28-3 |
| 1971-11-21 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 72.4% | 13-28 |
| 1971-11-21 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 36.2% | 20-7 |
| 1971-11-21 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 83.0% | 10-28 |
| 1971-11-21 | New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns | 62.4% | 7-27 |
| 1971-11-21 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 71.5% | 37-20 |
| 1971-11-21 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 77.6% | 33-34 |
| 1971-11-21 | Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 50.9% | 14-17 |
| 1971-11-21 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 56.6% | 13-0 |
| 1971-11-21 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 53.2% | 13-17 |
| 1971-11-21 | Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints | 23.8% | 23-10 |
| 1971-11-22 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 57.6% | 21-28 |
| 1971-11-25 | Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions | 58.9% | 21-32 |
| 1971-11-25 | Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys | 58.0% | 21-28 |
| 1971-11-28 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Jets | 39.6% | 24-21 |
| 1971-11-28 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 56.2% | 0-31 |
| 1971-11-28 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 41.6% | 20-27 |
| 1971-11-28 | Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers | 66.3% | 22-10 |
| 1971-11-28 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 42.4% | 37-24 |
| 1971-11-28 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 64.3% | 24-7 |
| 1971-11-28 | Baltimore ColtsatOakland Raiders | 54.0% | 37-14 |
| 1971-11-28 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 40.8% | 20-13 |
| 1971-11-28 | Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings | 82.4% | 7-24 |
| 1971-11-28 | New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers | 67.8% | 29-21 |
| 1971-11-29 | Chicago BearsatMiami Dolphins | 77.0% | 3-34 |
| 1971-12-04 | New York JetsatDallas Cowboys | 83.1% | 10-52 |
| 1971-12-05 | Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos | 53.4% | 3-6 |
| 1971-12-05 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 56.4% | 27-31 |
| 1971-12-05 | Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts | 94.5% | 0-24 |
| 1971-12-05 | Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 63.9% | 16-16 |
| 1971-12-05 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Diego Chargers | 25.1% | 14-30 |
| 1971-12-05 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 76.7% | 7-23 |
| 1971-12-05 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriotsshock | 20.2% | 13-34 |
| 1971-12-05 | Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lionsshock | 85.2% | 23-20 |
| 1971-12-05 | Oakland RaidersatAtlanta Falcons | 42.5% | 13-24 |
| 1971-12-05 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 81.5% | 28-45 |
| 1971-12-05 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 42.5% | 3-29 |
| 1971-12-06 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers | 57.7% | 26-17 |
| 1971-12-11 | Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts | 73.2% | 3-14 |
| 1971-12-11 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 64.0% | 10-29 |
| 1971-12-12 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 55.5% | 10-31 |
| 1971-12-12 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 71.0% | 21-13 |
| 1971-12-12 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 49.6% | 20-14 |
| 1971-12-12 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 65.0% | 17-45 |
| 1971-12-12 | Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints | 51.8% | 21-17 |
| 1971-12-12 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 55.1% | 7-19 |
| 1971-12-12 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 68.4% | 14-16 |
| 1971-12-12 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 26.1% | 42-14 |
| 1971-12-12 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 62.5% | 6-13 |
| 1971-12-12 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 67.5% | 3-24 |
| 1971-12-13 | Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams | 66.3% | 38-24 |
| 1971-12-18 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 85.0% | 12-31 |
| 1971-12-19 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 27.1% | 27-10 |
| 1971-12-19 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets | 60.2% | 21-35 |
| 1971-12-19 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 93.2% | 9-22 |
| 1971-12-19 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 40.2% | 21-13 |
| 1971-12-19 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 75.1% | 20-13 |
| 1971-12-19 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 37.2% | 33-49 |
| 1971-12-19 | New England PatriotsatBaltimore Coltsshock | 90.7% | 21-17 |
| 1971-12-19 | Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins | 74.3% | 6-27 |
| 1971-12-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 51.0% | 41-28 |
| 1971-12-19 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 47.4% | 24-20 |
| 1971-12-19 | Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers | 33.4% | 23-14 |
| 1971-12-19 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 58.1% | 27-31 |
| 1971-12-25 | Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs | 65.5% | 27-24 |
| 1971-12-25 | Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings | 59.7% | 20-12 |
| 1971-12-26 | Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns | 37.2% | 20-3 |
| 1971-12-26 | Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers | 61.6% | 20-24 |
| 1972-01-02 | San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys | 71.9% | 3-14 |
| 1972-01-02 | Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 47.0% | 0-21 |
| 1972-01-16 | Miami DolphinsvsDallas Cowboys | 60.6% | 3-24 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.