The expectation ledger

The 1973 season, against expectation

Every game of 1973scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19721974→
Games
189
Model Brier
0.1775
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
10.4%
Baltimore Colts

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1973.

1
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
12
exp 9.11
2
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
9
exp 6.34
3
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
10
exp 7.58
4
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
10
exp 8.67
5
Miami Dolphins
Miami
12
exp 10.87
6
Denver Broncos
Denver
8
exp 6.89
7
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
9
exp 7.92
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
10
exp 9.01
9
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
5.5
exp 4.52
10
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
8
exp 7.15
11
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
9.5
exp 8.98
12
New England Patriots
Boston
5
exp 5.16
Show all 22 rows
13
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
8
exp 8.24
14
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6.5
exp 7.35
15
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
4.5
exp 5.40
16
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
6
exp 7.55
17
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
4
exp 5.74
18
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
5
exp 6.89
19
Houston Oilers
Houston
1
exp 3.05
20
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
2.5
exp 4.58
21
New York Jets
New York
4
exp 6.31
22
Chicago Bears
Chicago
3
exp 5.60

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1973 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1973-09-16San Francisco 49ersatMiami Dolphins74.2%13-21
1973-09-16Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears39.1%20-17
1973-09-16Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos52.4%10-28
1973-09-16Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots52.7%31-13
1973-09-16Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns65.1%14-24
1973-09-16St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.8%34-23
1973-09-16San Diego ChargersatWashington Redskins78.7%0-38
1973-09-16Los Angeles RamsatKansas City Chiefs66.4%23-13
1973-09-16Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints44.3%62-7
1973-09-16Houston OilersatNew York Giants81.4%14-34
1973-09-16Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers63.2%10-24
1973-09-16Oakland RaidersatMinnesota Vikings54.1%16-24
1973-09-17New York JetsatGreen Bay Packers70.9%7-23
1973-09-23San Francisco 49ersatDenver Broncos49.8%36-34
1973-09-23Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears39.8%22-13
1973-09-23Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals77.5%10-24
1973-09-23Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers58.2%7-34
1973-09-23Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers66.9%6-33
1973-09-23Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals35.5%27-34
1973-09-23Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots34.0%10-7
1973-09-23New York JetsatBaltimore Colts61.3%34-10
1973-09-23Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders40.7%7-12
1973-09-23Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants82.0%23-23
1973-09-23Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams59.8%0-31
1973-09-23Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers64.7%13-13
1973-09-24New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys85.6%3-40
1973-09-30Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos67.9%33-14
1973-09-30Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers54.8%20-13
1973-09-30New York JetsatBuffalo Bills46.5%7-9
1973-09-30New York GiantsatCleveland Browns58.9%10-12
1973-09-30St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys74.2%10-45
1973-09-30Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs50.1%3-16
1973-09-30New Orleans SaintsatBaltimore Colts71.8%10-14
1973-09-30Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles26.7%28-7
1973-09-30New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins91.6%23-44
1973-09-30Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings60.2%3-11
1973-09-30Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers19.6%36-7
1973-09-30Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers61.0%40-20
1973-10-01Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions66.2%6-31
1973-10-07San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons51.7%13-9
1973-10-07Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints41.3%16-21
1973-10-07Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns62.6%10-17
1973-10-07Philadelphia EaglesatBuffalo Bills70.4%26-27
1973-10-07Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs73.6%14-16
1973-10-07Oakland RaidersatSt. Louis Cardinals46.0%17-10
1973-10-07San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers82.5%21-38
1973-10-07Baltimore ColtsatNew England Patriots41.4%16-24
1973-10-07Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets33.3%31-3
1973-10-07Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants54.1%16-14
1973-10-07Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions54.4%23-9
1973-10-07Los Angeles RamsatHouston Oilers22.1%31-26
1973-10-08Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins58.2%7-14
1973-10-14Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons62.5%6-46
1973-10-14Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals37.9%7-19
1973-10-14Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills60.8%13-31
1973-10-14Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers41.0%48-20
1973-10-14Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals73.4%27-24
1973-10-14Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers22.5%27-17
1973-10-14Kansas City ChiefsatGreen Bay Packers62.0%10-10
1973-10-14Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants21-3
1973-10-14Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams58.8%31-37
1973-10-14New England PatriotsatNew York Jets75.9%7-9
1973-10-14Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints33.2%13-20
1973-10-14Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers46.8%17-13
1973-10-15Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns40.3%17-9
1973-10-21New England PatriotsatChicago Bears68.6%13-10
1973-10-21Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals56.0%6-14
1973-10-21Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins86.3%6-27
1973-10-21Houston OilersatCleveland Browns86.9%13-42
1973-10-21St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins84.3%13-31
1973-10-21Atlanta FalconsatSan Diego Chargers48.8%41-0
1973-10-21Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions73.6%29-27
1973-10-21New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys71.9%28-45
1973-10-21Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings88.4%21-28
1973-10-21Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets40.7%26-14
1973-10-21Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams65.3%7-24
1973-10-21New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers77.4%0-40
1973-10-22Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos39.4%23-23
1973-10-28Houston OilersatChicago Bears74.4%14-35
1973-10-28Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers69.4%13-20
1973-10-28Denver BroncosatNew York Jets61.6%40-28
1973-10-28San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns79.5%16-16
1973-10-28New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals51.4%27-35
1973-10-28Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Colts34.1%34-21
1973-10-28Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saintsshock21.0%3-19
1973-10-28Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles25.9%16-30
1973-10-28Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots15.8%30-14
1973-10-28Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions50.8%0-34
1973-10-28Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings61.6%9-10
1973-10-28Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers62.5%17-3
1973-10-29Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills45.9%14-23
1973-11-04San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions61.5%20-30
1973-11-04Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers73.7%31-17
1973-11-04Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys61.6%10-38
1973-11-04Buffalo BillsatNew Orleans Saints51.6%0-13
1973-11-04Denver BroncosatSt. Louis Cardinals51.7%17-17
1973-11-04Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings74.3%3-26
1973-11-04Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers40.9%19-0
1973-11-04Houston OilersatBaltimore Colts76.9%31-27
1973-11-04New York JetsatMiami Dolphins87.8%14-24
1973-11-04New England PatriotsatPhiladelphia Eagles65.8%23-24
1973-11-04Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons48.9%13-15
1973-11-04New York GiantsatOakland Raiders78.3%0-42
1973-11-05Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers63.5%16-21
1973-11-11San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins72.9%9-33
1973-11-11Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills49.0%16-13
1973-11-11San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos75.7%19-30
1973-11-11Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers26.5%23-13
1973-11-11St. Louis CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers63.9%21-25
1973-11-11Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins92.1%0-44
1973-11-11Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants38.6%23-10
1973-11-11Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles36.0%44-27
1973-11-11New York JetsatNew England Patriots46.5%33-13
1973-11-11Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings75.2%7-28
1973-11-11Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders55.1%17-9
1973-11-11New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams80.0%7-29
1973-11-12Chicago BearsatKansas City Chiefs71.1%7-19
1973-11-18San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams77.8%13-31
1973-11-18Detroit LionsatChicago Bears45.2%30-7
1973-11-18New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals69.6%14-20
1973-11-18Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills20.0%17-0
1973-11-18Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelersshock80.0%23-13
1973-11-18Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders68.1%7-3
1973-11-18St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants57.9%13-24
1973-11-18New Orleans SaintsatSan Diego Chargers47.7%14-17
1973-11-18Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs88.1%14-38
1973-11-18Baltimore ColtsatWashington Redskins86.0%14-22
1973-11-18Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys83.8%10-31
1973-11-18Green Bay PackersatNew England Patriots37.3%24-33
1973-11-19Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons45.3%14-20
1973-11-22Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions50.4%20-0
1973-11-22Miami DolphinsatDallas Cowboys40.0%14-7
1973-11-25Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings86.7%13-31
1973-11-25St. Louis CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals75.8%24-42
1973-11-25Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts50.5%24-17
1973-11-25Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos57.8%10-14
1973-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns47.9%16-21
1973-11-25San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders83.2%3-31
1973-11-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.1%16-20
1973-11-25Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets35.4%28-20
1973-11-25New England PatriotsatHouston Oilers45.4%32-0
1973-11-25Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints24-13
1973-11-26Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers60.7%6-20
1973-12-02Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears24.8%26-0
1973-12-02Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals42.6%0-27
1973-12-02Buffalo BillsatAtlanta Falconsshock80.6%17-6
1973-12-02Dallas CowboysatDenver Broncos54.3%22-10
1973-12-02Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs54.8%20-20
1973-12-02Detroit LionsatSt. Louis Cardinals40.3%20-16
1973-12-02San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots64.1%14-30
1973-12-02Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets70.6%17-20
1973-12-02New York GiantsatWashington Redskins84.5%24-27
1973-12-02New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers63.4%10-30
1973-12-02Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers15.7%17-6
1973-12-02Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers71.5%28-38
1973-12-03Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins77.0%26-30
1973-12-08Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders66.2%7-37
1973-12-08Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers34.4%31-7
1973-12-09San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints42.7%10-16
1973-12-09Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions78.4%7-40
1973-12-09Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals61.4%17-34
1973-12-09New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills69.4%13-37
1973-12-09Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers31.8%42-28
1973-12-09St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falconsshock81.9%32-10
1973-12-09Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Coltsshock10.4%3-16
1973-12-09Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys54.9%7-27
1973-12-09New York JetsatPhiladelphia Eagles51.4%23-24
1973-12-09Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers93.1%7-33
1973-12-10New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams86.0%6-40
1973-12-15Detroit LionsatMiami Dolphins78.4%7-34
1973-12-15Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers39.4%37-14
1973-12-16Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears49.9%21-0
1973-12-16Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers13.0%27-24
1973-12-16Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets47.9%34-14
1973-12-16Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders68.2%17-21
1973-12-16Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams74.6%17-30
1973-12-16Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals30.1%30-3
1973-12-16San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs82.3%6-33
1973-12-16New England PatriotsatBaltimore Colts58.7%13-18
1973-12-16Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins85.5%20-38
1973-12-16New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons74.0%10-14
1973-12-16Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants26.4%31-7
1973-12-22Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings63.8%20-27
1973-12-22Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders57.4%14-33
1973-12-23Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins73.0%16-34
1973-12-23Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys56.4%16-27
1973-12-30Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys60.4%27-10
1973-12-30Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins70.9%10-27
1974-01-13Minnesota VikingsvsMiami Dolphins55.3%7-24

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.