The expectation ledger

The 1970 season, against expectation

Every game of 1970scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19691971→
Games
189
Model Brier
0.2001
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
19.0%
New York Jets

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1970.

1
Miami Dolphins
Miami
10
exp 6.77
2
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
10.5
exp 7.68
3
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
8
exp 5.93
4
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
11.5
exp 9.76
5
Detroit Lions
Detroit
10
exp 8.32
6
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
12
exp 10.38
7
New York Giants
New York
9
exp 7.48
8
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
8.5
exp 7.23
9
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
10
exp 8.83
10
Chicago Bears
Chicago
6
exp 4.96
11
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
9.5
exp 8.88
12
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
9
exp 8.80
Show all 26 rows
13
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
5
exp 4.89
14
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
6.5
exp 6.97
15
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
6
exp 6.51
16
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6
exp 6.61
17
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
3.5
exp 4.38
18
Denver Broncos
Denver
5.5
exp 6.39
19
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
3.5
exp 4.86
20
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
8
exp 9.46
21
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
5
exp 6.49
22
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
7
exp 8.56
23
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
2.5
exp 4.48
24
Boston Patriots
Boston
2
exp 4.44
25
Houston Oilers
Houston
3.5
exp 5.94
26
New York Jets
New York
4
exp 7.01

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1970 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1970-09-18St. Louis CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams78.2%13-34
1970-09-19Chicago BearsatNew York Giants71.3%24-16
1970-09-20Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals26.6%21-31
1970-09-20Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills52.2%25-10
1970-09-20Baltimore ColtsatSan Diego Chargers50.0%16-14
1970-09-20Kansas City ChiefsatMinnesota Vikings52.9%10-27
1970-09-20Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles32.9%17-7
1970-09-20Miami DolphinsatBoston Patriots66.7%14-27
1970-09-20Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints49.8%14-3
1970-09-20Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers56.2%40-0
1970-09-20Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers39.1%19-7
1970-09-20Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers55.0%17-26
1970-09-21New York JetsatCleveland Browns61.6%21-31
1970-09-27Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears63.7%16-20
1970-09-27Cincinnati BengalsatDetroit Lions79.5%3-38
1970-09-27Los Angeles RamsatBuffalo Bills27.0%19-0
1970-09-27Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos78.2%13-16
1970-09-27Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals51.5%17-27
1970-09-27Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers46.5%27-27
1970-09-27New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys78.5%10-28
1970-09-27Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers75.9%20-10
1970-09-27Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers57.8%24-27
1970-09-27New York JetsatBoston Patriots44.0%31-21
1970-09-27New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings87.5%0-26
1970-09-27Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers41.4%31-34
1970-09-28Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Colts50.7%44-24
1970-10-03Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns88.2%7-15
1970-10-03Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins31.1%13-20
1970-10-04San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons59.5%20-21
1970-10-04Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals55.3%20-13
1970-10-04New York JetsatBuffalo Bills27.9%31-34
1970-10-04Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos29.3%13-26
1970-10-04Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals34.5%7-20
1970-10-04San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Rams71.9%10-37
1970-10-04Baltimore ColtsatBoston Patriots39.1%14-6
1970-10-04Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles48.8%33-21
1970-10-04New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints53.1%10-14
1970-10-04Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers36.1%10-13
1970-10-05Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions81.5%14-28
1970-10-10Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets74.8%20-6
1970-10-11San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Ramsshock76.2%20-6
1970-10-11Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears27.0%24-0
1970-10-11Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns81.6%27-30
1970-10-11Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers50.0%10-23
1970-10-11Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders66.9%23-35
1970-10-11New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals68.7%17-24
1970-10-11Boston PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs85.4%10-23
1970-10-11Baltimore ColtsatHouston Oilers43.6%24-20
1970-10-11Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins36.9%10-31
1970-10-11Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys68.9%0-13
1970-10-11Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants68.3%23-30
1970-10-12Green Bay PackersatSan Diego Chargers54.4%22-20
1970-10-18San Diego ChargersatChicago Bears47.8%20-7
1970-10-18Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals24.4%27-19
1970-10-18Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills40.3%33-14
1970-10-18Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncos60.3%10-24
1970-10-18Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns60.5%41-24
1970-10-18St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles37.8%35-20
1970-10-18Baltimore ColtsatNew York Jets46.3%29-22
1970-10-18Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings69.8%13-54
1970-10-18New York GiantsatBoston Patriots55.6%16-0
1970-10-18Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers53.4%31-21
1970-10-18Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilersshock75.9%7-3
1970-10-18New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers77.2%20-20
1970-10-19Washington RedskinsatOakland Raiders69.0%20-34
1970-10-25Detroit LionsatChicago Bears26.0%16-10
1970-10-25Cincinnati BengalsatWashington Redskins73.4%0-20
1970-10-25Buffalo BillsatNew York Jetsshock79.8%10-6
1970-10-25Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins49.9%28-0
1970-10-25St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants52.7%17-35
1970-10-25Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers69.1%31-31
1970-10-25Dallas CowboysatKansas City Chiefs71.5%27-16
1970-10-25Boston PatriotsatBaltimore Colts85.8%3-27
1970-10-25Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers82.2%17-30
1970-10-25New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons68.5%14-32
1970-10-25Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders85.8%14-31
1970-10-25Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers60.8%14-19
1970-10-26Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings70.4%3-13
1970-11-01Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons74.0%23-14
1970-11-01Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots61.7%45-10
1970-11-01Washington RedskinsatDenver Broncos58.2%19-3
1970-11-01San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns71.2%27-10
1970-11-01Houston OilersatSt. Louis Cardinals64.6%0-44
1970-11-01Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs61.9%17-17
1970-11-01Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Colts78.8%0-35
1970-11-01Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys89.3%17-21
1970-11-01New York GiantsatNew York Jets55.3%22-10
1970-11-01Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions48.8%30-17
1970-11-01Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints29.7%30-17
1970-11-01Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers61.7%10-26
1970-11-02Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers55.9%10-21
1970-11-08San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears37.0%37-16
1970-11-08Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills64.9%43-14
1970-11-08Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers69.4%21-24
1970-11-08Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders67.5%20-23
1970-11-08Boston PatriotsatSt. Louis Cardinals81.2%0-31
1970-11-08Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs83.0%9-24
1970-11-08Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins33.0%19-10
1970-11-08Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants45.5%20-23
1970-11-08Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles38.8%17-24
1970-11-08Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams78.7%10-10
1970-11-08New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers50.3%17-21
1970-11-08Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints26.5%17-19
1970-11-09Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers40.0%13-10
1970-11-15San Francisco 49ersatHouston Oilers34.1%30-20
1970-11-15Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers73.2%19-20
1970-11-15Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals38.4%10-14
1970-11-15Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts89.4%17-17
1970-11-15Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos36.8%24-19
1970-11-15San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots25.6%16-14
1970-11-15Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers25.7%31-14
1970-11-15Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants59.5%33-35
1970-11-15New Orleans SaintsatMiami Dolphins64.4%10-21
1970-11-15Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles41.2%13-13
1970-11-15New York JetsatLos Angeles Ramsshock81.0%31-20
1970-11-15Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings78.2%20-24
1970-11-16St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys69.9%38-0
1970-11-22San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions57.0%7-28
1970-11-22Buffalo BillsatChicago Bears62.6%13-31
1970-11-22Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals65.4%7-34
1970-11-22Denver BroncosatNew Orleans Saints47.5%31-6
1970-11-22Houston OilersatCleveland Browns75.6%14-28
1970-11-22St. Louis CardinalsatKansas City Chiefs69.2%6-6
1970-11-22San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders68.9%17-20
1970-11-22Baltimore ColtsatMiami Dolphins31.6%17-34
1970-11-22Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins56.3%45-21
1970-11-22Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons44.7%17-7
1970-11-22Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets78.6%3-17
1970-11-22Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings86.5%3-10
1970-11-23New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles30.5%20-23
1970-11-26Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys70.7%3-16
1970-11-26Oakland RaidersatDetroit Lions54.9%14-28
1970-11-29Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts81.6%20-21
1970-11-29New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals72.3%6-26
1970-11-29Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills65.4%14-10
1970-11-29Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers44.7%21-31
1970-11-29Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers33.3%9-28
1970-11-29Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals84.1%14-23
1970-11-29San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs70.8%14-26
1970-11-29New York GiantsatWashington Redskins54.3%27-24
1970-11-29Minnesota VikingsatNew York Jetsshock21.7%10-20
1970-11-29Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers58.9%30-13
1970-11-30Miami DolphinsatAtlanta Falcons52.5%20-7
1970-12-05Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings90.1%13-16
1970-12-06Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers70.3%17-14
1970-12-06Buffalo BillsatNew York Giants84.0%6-20
1970-12-06Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs82.3%0-16
1970-12-06St. Louis CardinalsatDetroit Lions66.1%3-16
1970-12-06Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Colts86.0%10-29
1970-12-06Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys74.9%0-34
1970-12-06Boston PatriotsatMiami Dolphins82.0%20-37
1970-12-06Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets44.3%14-13
1970-12-06Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers46.9%20-12
1970-12-06New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams88.6%16-34
1970-12-06Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers75.9%20-24
1970-12-07Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers46.9%21-10
1970-12-12Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns45.5%6-2
1970-12-12Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders53.6%6-20
1970-12-13San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints27.7%38-27
1970-12-13Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears44.9%17-35
1970-12-13Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers46.1%30-20
1970-12-13Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills20.5%20-14
1970-12-13San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos48.8%17-17
1970-12-13New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals62.5%34-17
1970-12-13Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins73.7%6-24
1970-12-13New York JetsatMiami Dolphins60.8%10-16
1970-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons63.1%16-27
1970-12-13Minnesota VikingsatBoston Patriots11.6%35-14
1970-12-14Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams54.5%28-23
1970-12-19New York JetsatBaltimore Colts74.4%20-35
1970-12-20San Francisco 49ersatOakland Raiders70.8%38-7
1970-12-20Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints41.1%24-3
1970-12-20Boston PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals82.2%7-45
1970-12-20Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins84.9%7-45
1970-12-20Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos51.3%27-13
1970-12-20St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins50.5%27-28
1970-12-20Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers41.9%13-31
1970-12-20Houston OilersatDallas Cowboys87.0%10-52
1970-12-20Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles55.4%20-30
1970-12-20Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons19.6%37-7
1970-12-20Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants56.8%31-3
1970-12-20Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions82.7%0-20
1970-12-26Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Colts74.1%0-17
1970-12-26Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys52.6%0-5
1970-12-27San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings75.0%17-14
1970-12-27Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders66.4%14-21
1971-01-03Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Colts63.4%17-27
1971-01-03Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers57.1%17-10
1971-01-17Dallas CowboysvsBaltimore Colts47.3%13-16

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.