The expectation ledger
The 1969 season, against expectation
Every game of 1969scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
190
Model Brier
0.1671
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
15.5%
San Francisco 49ers
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1969.
Show all 26 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1969 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-09-14 | Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals | 50.5% | 21-27 |
| 1969-09-14 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 23.5% | 33-19 |
| 1969-09-14 | Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 65.9% | 7-35 |
| 1969-09-14 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 44.6% | 27-9 |
| 1969-09-14 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 77.8% | 17-21 |
| 1969-09-20 | Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders | 86.8% | 17-20 |
| 1969-09-21 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 35.0% | 12-24 |
| 1969-09-21 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 66.6% | 0-17 |
| 1969-09-21 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 42.2% | 20-34 |
| 1969-09-21 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 37.4% | 17-3 |
| 1969-09-21 | New York JetsatDenver Broncos | 31.2% | 19-21 |
| 1969-09-21 | Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 35.5% | 27-20 |
| 1969-09-21 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 67.1% | 3-24 |
| 1969-09-21 | Kansas City ChiefsatBoston Patriots | 19.5% | 31-0 |
| 1969-09-21 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 67.6% | 27-20 |
| 1969-09-21 | Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saints | 54.9% | 26-20 |
| 1969-09-21 | Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants | 50.5% | 23-24 |
| 1969-09-21 | Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers | 50.1% | 13-16 |
| 1969-09-28 | San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers | 71.9% | 7-14 |
| 1969-09-28 | Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 65.5% | 17-20 |
| 1969-09-28 | Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals | 25.2% | 19-24 |
| 1969-09-28 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 41.3% | 28-41 |
| 1969-09-28 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 75.7% | 23-27 |
| 1969-09-28 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 37.4% | 27-34 |
| 1969-09-28 | Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings | 40.2% | 14-52 |
| 1969-09-28 | Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints | 26.0% | 21-17 |
| 1969-09-28 | Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers | 74.2% | 10-22 |
| 1969-09-28 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 59.0% | 27-41 |
| 1969-09-28 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 87.8% | 7-17 |
| 1969-09-28 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 52.8% | 0-24 |
| 1969-09-28 | Oakland RaidersatBoston Patriots | 17.2% | 38-23 |
| 1969-10-04 | Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers | 66.4% | 14-21 |
| 1969-10-04 | Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins | 21.6% | 20-20 |
| 1969-10-05 | Chicago BearsatNew York Giants | 54.9% | 24-28 |
| 1969-10-05 | Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers | 79.8% | 14-28 |
| 1969-10-05 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 29.5% | 26-13 |
| 1969-10-05 | Detroit LionsatCleveland Brownsshock | 76.0% | 28-21 |
| 1969-10-05 | St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 35.5% | 27-14 |
| 1969-10-05 | Baltimore ColtsatAtlanta Falcons | 26.7% | 21-14 |
| 1969-10-05 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 28.7% | 38-7 |
| 1969-10-05 | New York JetsatBoston Patriots | 23.2% | 23-14 |
| 1969-10-05 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 56.6% | 7-19 |
| 1969-10-05 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 88.2% | 17-36 |
| 1969-10-05 | Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers | 61.9% | 17-17 |
| 1969-10-11 | Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 64.0% | 16-23 |
| 1969-10-11 | San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins | 43.4% | 21-14 |
| 1969-10-12 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 40.9% | 31-0 |
| 1969-10-12 | New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals | 34.5% | 21-7 |
| 1969-10-12 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 24.2% | 24-14 |
| 1969-10-12 | Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints | 32.4% | 27-17 |
| 1969-10-12 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 44.1% | 17-33 |
| 1969-10-12 | Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs | 73.3% | 0-24 |
| 1969-10-12 | Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons | 21.1% | 24-17 |
| 1969-10-12 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 72.8% | 7-10 |
| 1969-10-12 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 49.1% | 28-17 |
| 1969-10-12 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 31.4% | 27-21 |
| 1969-10-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Colts | 84.4% | 20-24 |
| 1969-10-18 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 84.4% | 31-42 |
| 1969-10-19 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 64.2% | 7-13 |
| 1969-10-19 | Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals | 61.4% | 30-23 |
| 1969-10-19 | Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders | 90.0% | 21-50 |
| 1969-10-19 | Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 46.1% | 27-10 |
| 1969-10-19 | San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots | 28.2% | 13-10 |
| 1969-10-19 | Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs | 88.4% | 10-17 |
| 1969-10-19 | Baltimore ColtsatNew Orleans Saints | 23.1% | 30-10 |
| 1969-10-19 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 61.7% | 14-20 |
| 1969-10-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 87.5% | 14-49 |
| 1969-10-19 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 70.5% | 21-34 |
| 1969-10-19 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 72.0% | 21-7 |
| 1969-10-20 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 71.8% | 17-26 |
| 1969-10-26 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Coltsshock | 84.5% | 24-21 |
| 1969-10-26 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 23.5% | 9-7 |
| 1969-10-26 | Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs | 88.4% | 22-42 |
| 1969-10-26 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 61.8% | 6-24 |
| 1969-10-26 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 71.1% | 21-24 |
| 1969-10-26 | St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 70.1% | 21-21 |
| 1969-10-26 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 37.7% | 24-12 |
| 1969-10-26 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 36.8% | 14-7 |
| 1969-10-26 | New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 64.9% | 10-13 |
| 1969-10-26 | Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers | 80.4% | 10-28 |
| 1969-10-26 | Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets | 91.3% | 17-23 |
| 1969-10-26 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 78.6% | 10-24 |
| 1969-10-27 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 83.6% | 3-25 |
| 1969-11-02 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 85.2% | 14-31 |
| 1969-11-02 | Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengalsshock | 18.2% | 17-31 |
| 1969-11-02 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 16.8% | 29-7 |
| 1969-11-02 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 44.9% | 0-13 |
| 1969-11-02 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 44.5% | 10-42 |
| 1969-11-02 | New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinalsshock | 79.9% | 51-42 |
| 1969-11-02 | Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts | 72.0% | 17-41 |
| 1969-11-02 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 85.4% | 31-34 |
| 1969-11-02 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 66.2% | 23-20 |
| 1969-11-02 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 19.5% | 38-6 |
| 1969-11-02 | Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers | 24.5% | 38-34 |
| 1969-11-02 | Houston OilersatBoston Patriots | 27.6% | 0-24 |
| 1969-11-02 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 54.2% | 26-14 |
| 1969-11-09 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 89.0% | 30-41 |
| 1969-11-09 | Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears | 71.0% | 7-38 |
| 1969-11-09 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 64.9% | 31-31 |
| 1969-11-09 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 90.0% | 6-16 |
| 1969-11-09 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 83.0% | 10-41 |
| 1969-11-09 | Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings | 65.5% | 3-51 |
| 1969-11-09 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 64.8% | 17-42 |
| 1969-11-09 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 82.3% | 3-27 |
| 1969-11-09 | Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts | 64.1% | 6-14 |
| 1969-11-09 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 70.4% | 28-28 |
| 1969-11-09 | New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys | 87.2% | 17-33 |
| 1969-11-09 | Miami DolphinsatBoston Patriots | 51.5% | 17-16 |
| 1969-11-09 | Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions | 75.3% | 21-27 |
| 1969-11-16 | Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons | 50.2% | 31-48 |
| 1969-11-16 | Boston PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals | 72.3% | 25-14 |
| 1969-11-16 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 48.0% | 3-28 |
| 1969-11-16 | Houston OilersatDenver Broncos | 54.7% | 20-20 |
| 1969-11-16 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 21.4% | 24-3 |
| 1969-11-16 | St. Louis CardinalsatDetroit Lions | 62.5% | 0-20 |
| 1969-11-16 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 81.2% | 16-21 |
| 1969-11-16 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 51.9% | 34-16 |
| 1969-11-16 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 37.2% | 41-28 |
| 1969-11-16 | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 20.9% | 23-17 |
| 1969-11-16 | New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants | 64.1% | 25-24 |
| 1969-11-16 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 43.6% | 9-7 |
| 1969-11-16 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers | 26.8% | 17-20 |
| 1969-11-23 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 52.0% | 38-43 |
| 1969-11-23 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears | 28.6% | 24-21 |
| 1969-11-23 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets | 83.8% | 7-40 |
| 1969-11-23 | Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots | 61.3% | 21-35 |
| 1969-11-23 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 64.3% | 24-45 |
| 1969-11-23 | New York GiantsatCleveland Browns | 82.9% | 17-28 |
| 1969-11-23 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 66.6% | 34-30 |
| 1969-11-23 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 67.0% | 27-24 |
| 1969-11-23 | Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins | 69.6% | 20-27 |
| 1969-11-23 | Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams | 66.6% | 23-24 |
| 1969-11-23 | Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins | 44.8% | 32-7 |
| 1969-11-23 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 64.2% | 16-10 |
| 1969-11-23 | Pittsburgh SteelersatMinnesota Vikings | 93.9% | 14-52 |
| 1969-11-27 | San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys | 86.1% | 24-24 |
| 1969-11-27 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 89.0% | 17-31 |
| 1969-11-27 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 60.1% | 21-17 |
| 1969-11-27 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 39.0% | 27-0 |
| 1969-11-30 | Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears | 29.2% | 28-24 |
| 1969-11-30 | Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills | 52.3% | 13-16 |
| 1969-11-30 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 78.3% | 10-47 |
| 1969-11-30 | Atlanta FalconsatBaltimore Colts | 85.9% | 6-13 |
| 1969-11-30 | Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskins | 26.6% | 24-13 |
| 1969-11-30 | Boston PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 51.7% | 38-23 |
| 1969-11-30 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints | 53.6% | 17-26 |
| 1969-11-30 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 78.3% | 10-20 |
| 1969-11-30 | Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets | 50.0% | 27-14 |
| 1969-12-06 | New York JetsatHouston Oilers | 41.8% | 34-26 |
| 1969-12-06 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 64.4% | 21-42 |
| 1969-12-07 | Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders | 91.4% | 17-37 |
| 1969-12-07 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 92.3% | 19-22 |
| 1969-12-07 | Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins | 45.4% | 24-27 |
| 1969-12-07 | Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns | 68.1% | 7-20 |
| 1969-12-07 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 47.8% | 6-49 |
| 1969-12-07 | Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers | 71.0% | 18-28 |
| 1969-12-07 | Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts | 72.3% | 17-17 |
| 1969-12-07 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 50.7% | 34-29 |
| 1969-12-07 | Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers | 14.0% | 10-7 |
| 1969-12-07 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 53.9% | 17-45 |
| 1969-12-07 | Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.7% | 20-13 |
| 1969-12-13 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 60.0% | 6-10 |
| 1969-12-13 | Baltimore ColtsatDallas Cowboys | 62.7% | 10-27 |
| 1969-12-14 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 89.7% | 7-10 |
| 1969-12-14 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 34.7% | 21-3 |
| 1969-12-14 | Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos | 62.5% | 16-27 |
| 1969-12-14 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 80.0% | 6-45 |
| 1969-12-14 | Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 29.3% | 27-21 |
| 1969-12-14 | New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins | 72.9% | 14-17 |
| 1969-12-14 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 21.3% | 27-9 |
| 1969-12-14 | Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 57.4% | 27-3 |
| 1969-12-14 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 38.1% | 21-17 |
| 1969-12-14 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 35.3% | 0-28 |
| 1969-12-14 | Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers | 66.2% | 23-27 |
| 1969-12-20 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 48.5% | 13-6 |
| 1969-12-21 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 26.3% | 20-3 |
| 1969-12-21 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 29.3% | 14-27 |
| 1969-12-21 | St. Louis CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers | 77.5% | 28-45 |
| 1969-12-21 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 66.9% | 13-7 |
| 1969-12-21 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 80.2% | 10-20 |
| 1969-12-21 | Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falconsshock | 19.6% | 3-10 |
| 1969-12-21 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 87.0% | 7-56 |
| 1969-12-21 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints | 74.6% | 24-27 |
| 1969-12-21 | Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers | 70.2% | 13-14 |
| 1969-12-27 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 69.7% | 20-23 |
| 1969-12-28 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 69.4% | 38-14 |
| 1970-01-03 | Dallas CowboysvsLos Angeles Rams | 49.2% | 0-31 |
| 1970-01-04 | Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings | 68.8% | 7-27 |
| 1970-01-04 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 61.9% | 17-7 |
| 1970-01-11 | Minnesota VikingsvsKansas City Chiefs | 51.8% | 7-23 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.