The expectation ledger
The 1968 season, against expectation
Every game of 1968scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
189
Model Brier
0.1878
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
12.8%
Atlanta Falcons
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1968.
Show all 26 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1968 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-09-06 | Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers | 80.1% | 13-29 |
| 1968-09-08 | Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 65.3% | 16-7 |
| 1968-09-09 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 48.3% | 26-21 |
| 1968-09-14 | Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins | 44.8% | 24-10 |
| 1968-09-14 | Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings | 74.5% | 7-47 |
| 1968-09-15 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts | 77.9% | 10-27 |
| 1968-09-15 | Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears | 69.0% | 38-28 |
| 1968-09-15 | Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals | 45.1% | 10-24 |
| 1968-09-15 | Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 29.1% | 48-6 |
| 1968-09-15 | Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints | 37.0% | 24-10 |
| 1968-09-15 | New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs | 71.4% | 20-19 |
| 1968-09-15 | Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys | 68.9% | 13-59 |
| 1968-09-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers | 81.4% | 13-30 |
| 1968-09-15 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 58.8% | 34-20 |
| 1968-09-16 | Los Angeles RamsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 34.9% | 24-13 |
| 1968-09-21 | Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers | 55.4% | 14-30 |
| 1968-09-21 | Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins | 21.0% | 47-21 |
| 1968-09-22 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 52.3% | 0-42 |
| 1968-09-22 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 47.9% | 23-34 |
| 1968-09-22 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 84.7% | 2-34 |
| 1968-09-22 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 62.6% | 7-28 |
| 1968-09-22 | Baltimore ColtsatAtlanta Falcons | 18.1% | 28-20 |
| 1968-09-22 | Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saints | 38.3% | 17-37 |
| 1968-09-22 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 56.9% | 34-25 |
| 1968-09-22 | New York JetsatBoston Patriots | 47.7% | 47-31 |
| 1968-09-22 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packersshock | 82.1% | 26-13 |
| 1968-09-22 | Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams | 85.0% | 10-45 |
| 1968-09-22 | St. Louis CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers | 62.9% | 17-35 |
| 1968-09-28 | Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins | 25.9% | 48-3 |
| 1968-09-29 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 66.5% | 27-17 |
| 1968-09-29 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 35.8% | 31-10 |
| 1968-09-29 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 35.0% | 35-37 |
| 1968-09-29 | Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 50.4% | 20-17 |
| 1968-09-29 | Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns | 40.7% | 24-6 |
| 1968-09-29 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints | 55.3% | 21-20 |
| 1968-09-29 | Baltimore ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers | 25.6% | 41-7 |
| 1968-09-29 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 65.2% | 21-48 |
| 1968-09-29 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 36.6% | 45-13 |
| 1968-09-29 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 75.8% | 23-17 |
| 1968-09-29 | Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers | 33.6% | 24-15 |
| 1968-09-29 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers | 80.2% | 13-28 |
| 1968-10-05 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 27.8% | 18-7 |
| 1968-10-05 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 74.3% | 24-31 |
| 1968-10-05 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets | 58.9% | 20-23 |
| 1968-10-06 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 80.5% | 10-24 |
| 1968-10-06 | Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts | 79.1% | 7-28 |
| 1968-10-06 | Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos | 60.7% | 7-10 |
| 1968-10-06 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 32.4% | 27-10 |
| 1968-10-06 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 63.2% | 14-17 |
| 1968-10-06 | Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers | 76.5% | 24-7 |
| 1968-10-06 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 21.4% | 38-7 |
| 1968-10-06 | New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants | 76.9% | 21-38 |
| 1968-10-06 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 63.9% | 24-10 |
| 1968-10-06 | Boston PatriotsatOakland Raiders | 86.8% | 10-41 |
| 1968-10-12 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 60.4% | 14-14 |
| 1968-10-13 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 58.1% | 28-10 |
| 1968-10-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs | 90.0% | 3-13 |
| 1968-10-13 | Denver BroncosatNew York Jetsshock | 81.8% | 21-13 |
| 1968-10-13 | St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 72.5% | 27-21 |
| 1968-10-13 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 79.8% | 23-14 |
| 1968-10-13 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 69.2% | 13-16 |
| 1968-10-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 85.0% | 14-34 |
| 1968-10-13 | New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons | 25.3% | 21-24 |
| 1968-10-13 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 47.2% | 16-14 |
| 1968-10-13 | Houston OilersatBoston Patriots | 58.0% | 16-0 |
| 1968-10-13 | Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints | 39.1% | 17-20 |
| 1968-10-13 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers | 32.6% | 42-14 |
| 1968-10-20 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants | 65.9% | 26-10 |
| 1968-10-20 | Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 50.4% | 29-16 |
| 1968-10-20 | Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals | 49.3% | 24-22 |
| 1968-10-20 | Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots | 59.9% | 6-23 |
| 1968-10-20 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 80.1% | 24-55 |
| 1968-10-20 | Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Coltsshock | 83.6% | 30-20 |
| 1968-10-20 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 56.9% | 14-41 |
| 1968-10-20 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 56.7% | 10-24 |
| 1968-10-20 | Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings | 38.0% | 20-7 |
| 1968-10-20 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 93.2% | 14-27 |
| 1968-10-20 | New York JetsatHouston Oilers | 53.4% | 20-14 |
| 1968-10-20 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 50.6% | 14-14 |
| 1968-10-20 | New Orleans SaintsatPittsburgh Steelers | 56.0% | 16-12 |
| 1968-10-27 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 62.8% | 14-7 |
| 1968-10-27 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 60.0% | 24-26 |
| 1968-10-27 | Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders | 90.8% | 10-31 |
| 1968-10-27 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 47.4% | 30-7 |
| 1968-10-27 | Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos | 56.9% | 14-21 |
| 1968-10-27 | Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns | 83.9% | 7-30 |
| 1968-10-27 | New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 67.4% | 17-31 |
| 1968-10-27 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 70.1% | 20-27 |
| 1968-10-27 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 52.5% | 10-27 |
| 1968-10-27 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 52.3% | 13-10 |
| 1968-10-27 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 56.6% | 3-6 |
| 1968-10-27 | Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets | 73.9% | 14-48 |
| 1968-10-28 | Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys | 68.5% | 28-17 |
| 1968-11-03 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 76.6% | 13-10 |
| 1968-11-03 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 34.8% | 27-17 |
| 1968-11-03 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 83.2% | 21-25 |
| 1968-11-03 | Denver BroncosatBoston Patriots | 58.9% | 35-14 |
| 1968-11-03 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 40.7% | 45-17 |
| 1968-11-03 | Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers | 81.3% | 28-34 |
| 1968-11-03 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 54.4% | 21-38 |
| 1968-11-03 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Giants | 32.8% | 26-0 |
| 1968-11-03 | Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings | 66.4% | 14-27 |
| 1968-11-03 | Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints | 27.0% | 17-3 |
| 1968-11-03 | Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons | 50.4% | 41-21 |
| 1968-11-03 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 79.3% | 7-10 |
| 1968-11-03 | Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers | 58.9% | 33-21 |
| 1968-11-10 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 60.7% | 19-27 |
| 1968-11-10 | Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals | 15.0% | 16-9 |
| 1968-11-10 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 52.8% | 21-17 |
| 1968-11-10 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 27.6% | 43-7 |
| 1968-11-10 | New Orleans SaintsatCleveland Browns | 81.4% | 17-35 |
| 1968-11-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 74.5% | 28-28 |
| 1968-11-10 | San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots | 29.2% | 27-17 |
| 1968-11-10 | Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions | 31.4% | 27-10 |
| 1968-11-10 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 49.3% | 16-10 |
| 1968-11-10 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 79.5% | 27-21 |
| 1968-11-10 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 11.8% | 17-10 |
| 1968-11-10 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 67.2% | 7-26 |
| 1968-11-10 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 41.7% | 10-14 |
| 1968-11-17 | Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bearsshock | 87.2% | 16-13 |
| 1968-11-17 | Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins | 73.4% | 38-21 |
| 1968-11-17 | San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills | 22.6% | 21-6 |
| 1968-11-17 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 66.7% | 17-38 |
| 1968-11-17 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 33.9% | 45-24 |
| 1968-11-17 | St. Louis CardinalsatBaltimore Colts | 83.4% | 0-27 |
| 1968-11-17 | Boston PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs | 89.7% | 17-31 |
| 1968-11-17 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 32.6% | 44-24 |
| 1968-11-17 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 82.0% | 6-7 |
| 1968-11-17 | New York JetsatOakland Raiders | 74.1% | 32-43 |
| 1968-11-17 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 62.0% | 6-13 |
| 1968-11-17 | New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers | 83.9% | 7-29 |
| 1968-11-17 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 31.8% | 20-20 |
| 1968-11-24 | San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers | 42.9% | 45-28 |
| 1968-11-24 | Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears | 41.5% | 34-3 |
| 1968-11-24 | Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals | 14.5% | 34-0 |
| 1968-11-24 | Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos | 71.9% | 32-34 |
| 1968-11-24 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 88.6% | 13-47 |
| 1968-11-24 | Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 82.4% | 12-17 |
| 1968-11-24 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 65.2% | 37-15 |
| 1968-11-24 | Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts | 82.2% | 9-21 |
| 1968-11-24 | Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins | 31.6% | 27-7 |
| 1968-11-24 | Miami DolphinsatBoston Patriots | 58.6% | 34-10 |
| 1968-11-24 | New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams | 79.5% | 21-24 |
| 1968-11-24 | New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions | 72.3% | 20-20 |
| 1968-11-28 | Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders | 94.0% | 10-13 |
| 1968-11-28 | Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs | 79.4% | 10-24 |
| 1968-11-28 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 87.6% | 20-29 |
| 1968-11-28 | Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions | 77.9% | 12-0 |
| 1968-12-01 | Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints | 43.7% | 23-17 |
| 1968-12-01 | Cincinnati BengalsatBoston Patriots | 57.1% | 14-33 |
| 1968-12-01 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 37.3% | 47-23 |
| 1968-12-01 | New York GiantsatCleveland Browns | 72.3% | 10-45 |
| 1968-12-01 | St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 38.5% | 20-10 |
| 1968-12-01 | Atlanta FalconsatBaltimore Colts | 95.2% | 0-44 |
| 1968-12-01 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 83.5% | 17-35 |
| 1968-12-01 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 36.1% | 31-3 |
| 1968-12-01 | Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers | 45.1% | 20-27 |
| 1968-12-07 | Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers | 81.3% | 6-35 |
| 1968-12-07 | Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 38.3% | 16-3 |
| 1968-12-08 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Ramsshock | 83.5% | 17-16 |
| 1968-12-08 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets | 90.0% | 14-27 |
| 1968-12-08 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 90.6% | 27-33 |
| 1968-12-08 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 25.8% | 24-21 |
| 1968-12-08 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 54.7% | 28-21 |
| 1968-12-08 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 46.5% | 40-3 |
| 1968-12-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 90.4% | 7-28 |
| 1968-12-08 | Boston PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 65.8% | 7-38 |
| 1968-12-08 | New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 58.6% | 17-29 |
| 1968-12-08 | Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons | 41.2% | 24-7 |
| 1968-12-08 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.1% | 30-20 |
| 1968-12-14 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 18.1% | 30-7 |
| 1968-12-14 | Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 46.5% | 16-27 |
| 1968-12-15 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 25.9% | 14-12 |
| 1968-12-15 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 49.5% | 28-27 |
| 1968-12-15 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 36.1% | 34-27 |
| 1968-12-15 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 49.9% | 28-24 |
| 1968-12-15 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 50.2% | 3-14 |
| 1968-12-15 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 31.2% | 28-10 |
| 1968-12-15 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 29.5% | 31-7 |
| 1968-12-15 | Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 36.0% | 24-17 |
| 1968-12-15 | Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers | 81.2% | 17-45 |
| 1968-12-15 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints | 58.9% | 14-24 |
| 1968-12-21 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 48.1% | 20-31 |
| 1968-12-22 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 60.9% | 6-41 |
| 1968-12-22 | Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts | 84.7% | 14-24 |
| 1968-12-29 | Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns | 37.6% | 34-0 |
| 1968-12-29 | Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets | 41.8% | 23-27 |
| 1969-01-05 | Minnesota VikingsvsDallas Cowboys | 66.4% | 13-17 |
| 1969-01-12 | Baltimore ColtsvsNew York Jets | 28.6% | 7-16 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.