The Outlook

Where indices and currencies may stand in 1, 6 and 12 months: a range from public data, not advice.

as of 2026-10-22 · 13 indices, 14 currency pairs · prices from the Markets and FX series, interest rates from the Rates tab · calibrated on a 20-year back-test

One series, twelve months ahead

Pick a series: three years of closes, then the 50% and 80% range out to twelve months.

How this is measured

The shaded fan is where the series has landed, historically, 50% and 80% of the time at that distance, after the width is fitted to its own 20-year record. The dashed line is the median. For currencies the median starts from interest-rate parity or from today's rate, whichever had the smaller back-test error for that pair. It is a range from public data, not advice.

Series

S&P 500Weekly close50% range80% rangeMedian

Hover the chart for a point. On a phone, tap or slide a finger along it; the detail sits at the point.

Indices

Median and 80% range at each horizon; hit is the share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges.

How this is measured

Price indices only, so dividends are left out. The median grows at the index's own long-run average from the last 30 years; the width blends the last year's volatility with the long-run figure, then a factor is fitted so the 80% range held 80% of the outcomes in a month-by-month 20-year back-test. The bar scales each row to its own 12-month range: the pale band is 80%, the dark band 50%, the white tick the median and the thin line today's level. Click a name to see its fan.

Sort by

206,495 now · 80% range 156,779 to 341,483 in 12 months · hit 46 / 80%−24% to +65%

231,381

+12.1% median

73,658 now · 80% range 67,736 to 97,229 in 12 months · hit 54 / 80%−8% to +32%

81,154

+10.2% median

7,922 now · 80% range 7,088 to 9,648 in 12 months · hit 50 / 80%−11% to +22%

8,270

+4.4% median

25,645 now · 80% range 22,957 to 33,259 in 12 months · hit 45 / 80%−10% to +30%

27,632

+7.7% median

52,856 now · 80% range 50,031 to 64,494 in 12 months · hit 50 / 80%−5% to +22%

56,804

+7.5% median

10,753 now · 80% range 9,678 to 12,746 in 12 months · hit 55 / 80%−10% to +19%

11,107

+3.3% median

22,902 now · 80% range 18,478 to 29,564 in 12 months · hit 46 / 80%−19% to +29%

23,373

+2.1% median

5,508 now · 80% range 3,891 to 8,948 in 12 months · hit 54 / 80%−29% to +62%

5,901

+7.1% median

26,703 now · 80% range 24,087 to 36,332 in 12 months · hit 47 / 80%−10% to +36%

29,583

+10.8% median

62,932 now · 80% range 47,459 to 89,751 in 12 months · hit 52 / 80%−25% to +43%

65,265

+3.7% median

7,757 now · 80% range 7,233 to 9,758 in 12 months · hit 55 / 80%−7% to +26%

8,401

+8.3% median

36,325 now · 80% range 32,751 to 45,683 in 12 months · hit 51 / 80%−10% to +26%

38,680

+6.5% median

#
1	206,495	208,463196,326 to 221,350Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 46 / 80%	218,584177,143 to 269,721Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	231,381156,779 to 341,483Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 46 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −24% to +65%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 86 / 94 / 98%
2	73,658	74,25570,505 to 78,204Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	77,31567,474 to 88,591Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 58 / 80%	81,15467,736 to 97,229Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −8% to +32%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 86 / 92 / 94%
3	7,922	7,9507,577 to 8,342Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	8,0947,223 to 9,070Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	8,2707,088 to 9,648Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −11% to +22%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 78 / 86 / 90%
4	25,645	25,80524,453 to 27,232Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	26,62023,040 to 30,757Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	27,63222,957 to 33,259Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 45 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −10% to +30%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 81 / 86 / 87%
5	52,856	53,17450,579 to 55,903Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 56 / 80%	54,79449,798 to 60,292Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 48 / 80%	56,80450,031 to 64,494Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −5% to +22%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 73 / 85 / 84%
6	10,753	10,78210,389 to 11,190Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	10,92810,027 to 11,911Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	11,1079,678 to 12,746Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 55 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −10% to +19%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 84 / 87 / 85%
7	22,902	22,94121,522 to 24,453Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	23,13619,605 to 27,303Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	23,37318,478 to 29,564Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 46 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −19% to +29%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 80 / 88 / 75%
8	5,508	5,5404,984 to 6,158Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	5,7014,201 to 7,737Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 57 / 80%	5,9013,891 to 8,948Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −29% to +62%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 71 / 64 / 55%check
9	26,703	26,93225,307 to 28,661Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	28,10624,555 to 32,171Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 48 / 80%	29,58324,087 to 36,332Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 47 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −10% to +36%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 75 / 80 / 72%
10	62,932	63,12357,918 to 68,796Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 55 / 80%	64,08851,922 to 79,104Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	65,26547,459 to 89,751Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −25% to +43%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 84 / 83 / 89%
11	7,757	7,8097,430 to 8,207Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 55 / 80%	8,0737,298 to 8,930Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	8,4017,233 to 9,758Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 55 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −7% to +26%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 77 / 83 / 77%
12	36,325	36,51634,982 to 38,117Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	37,48433,695 to 41,700Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	38,68032,751 to 45,683Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −10% to +26%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 78 / 77 / 87%
13	3,650	3,6623,449 to 3,888Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	3,7203,135 to 4,416Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 56 / 80%	3,7922,886 to 4,982Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 59 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −21% to +36%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 90 / 99 / 100%check

Currencies

The price of the first currency in the second. Each pair names its centre: rate parity or today's rate.

How this is measured

The centre for each pair is interest-rate parity (the forward rate implied by the two central banks' policy rates) or today's rate, whichever had the smaller median error over the back-test: 6 pairs use parity and 8 use today's rate. Policy rates stand in for market rates, which is a poor guide for high-yield currencies, and that is why several pairs fall back to today's rate. The width is fitted the same way as for indices. Click a name to see its fan.

Sort by

0.7026 now · 80% range 0.6129 to 0.8055 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 53 / 80%−13% to +15%

0.7026

0.0% median

1.1232 now · 80% range 1.0412 to 1.2444 in 12 months · centre interest-rate parity · hit 50 / 80%−7% to +11%

1.1383

+1.3% median

1.3392 now · 80% range 1.2284 to 1.4600 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 52 / 80%−8% to +9%

1.3392

0.0% median

5.0246 now · 80% range 4.1874 to 6.0292 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 53 / 80%−17% to +20%

5.0246

0.0% median

1.4048 now · 80% range 1.2927 to 1.4793 in 12 months · centre interest-rate parity · hit 52 / 80%−8% to +5%

1.3828

−1.6% median

0.8245 now · 80% range 0.7427 to 0.8483 in 12 months · centre interest-rate parity · hit 49 / 80%−10% to +3%

0.7937

−3.7% median

6.6893 now · 80% range 6.5016 to 6.8825 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 48 / 80%−3% to +3%

6.6893

0.0% median

94.588 now · 80% range 89.644 to 102.46 in 12 months · centre interest-rate parity · hit 52 / 80%−5% to +8%

95.840

+1.3% median

158.10 now · 80% range 140.14 to 178.36 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 54 / 80%−11% to +13%

158.10

0.0% median

1,326 now · 80% range 1,194 to 1,474 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 55 / 80%−10% to +11%

1,326

0.0% median

18.632 now · 80% range 16.543 to 20.984 in 12 months · centre today's rate · hit 56 / 80%−11% to +13%

18.632

0.0% median

9.3657 now · 80% range 8.2168 to 10.804 in 12 months · centre interest-rate parity · hit 58 / 80%−12% to +15%

9.4221

+0.6% median

#
1	0.7026	0.70260.6782 to 0.7280Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	0.70260.6465 to 0.7636Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	0.70260.6129 to 0.8055Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −13% to +15%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 89 / 96 / 96%check
2	1.1232	1.12451.1005 to 1.1490Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 46 / 80%	1.13081.0594 to 1.2071Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 48 / 80%	1.13831.0412 to 1.2444Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −7% to +11%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 90 / 86 / 88%check
3	1.3392	1.33921.3084 to 1.3708Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	1.33921.2653 to 1.4174Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 47 / 80%	1.33921.2284 to 1.4600Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −8% to +9%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 78 / 90 / 89%
4	5.0246	5.02464.8049 to 5.2543Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 56 / 80%	5.02464.4301 to 5.6989Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 57 / 80%	5.02464.1874 to 6.0292Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −17% to +20%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 86 / 90 / 88%
5	1.4048	1.40291.3738 to 1.4327Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 46 / 80%	1.39361.3256 to 1.4651Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	1.38281.2927 to 1.4793Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −8% to +5%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 92 / 97 / 98%check
6	0.8245	0.82180.8018 to 0.8424Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	0.80880.7639 to 0.8564Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	0.79370.7427 to 0.8483Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −10% to +3%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 77 / 95 / 95%check
7	6.6893	6.68936.6542 to 6.7246Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 60 / 80%	6.68936.5649 to 6.8160Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	6.68936.5016 to 6.8825Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 48 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −3% to +3%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 42 / 50 / 62%check
8	94.588	94.69693.311 to 96.101Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	95.22691.117 to 99.520Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	95.84089.644 to 102.46Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −5% to +8%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 90 / 91 / 93%check
9	158.10	158.10153.73 to 162.60Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 52 / 80%	158.10146.60 to 170.50Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 53 / 80%	158.10140.14 to 178.36Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 54 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −11% to +13%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 86 / 92 / 85%
10	1,326	1,3261,283 to 1,371Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	1,3261,229 to 1,431Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 44 / 80%	1,3261,194 to 1,474Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 55 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −10% to +11%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 85 / 86 / 91%
11	18.632	18.63218.111 to 19.167Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	18.63217.185 to 20.201Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 58 / 80%	18.63216.543 to 20.984Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 56 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −11% to +13%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 72 / 86 / 94%
12	9.3657	9.37069.0544 to 9.6978Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	9.39448.6432 to 10.211Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 49 / 80%	9.42218.2168 to 10.804Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 58 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −12% to +15%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 77 / 92 / 95%
13	9.8879	9.88799.5437 to 10.244Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	9.88798.9999 to 10.864Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 56 / 80%	9.88798.6332 to 11.325Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 50 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −13% to +15%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 83 / 83 / 91%
14	16.375	16.42115.700 to 17.175Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 47 / 80%	16.64614.868 to 18.636Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 51 / 80%	16.90714.640 to 19.525Back-test: share of past outcomes inside the 50% and 80% ranges, hit 44 / 80%	80% range as a change from today: −11% to +19%	Held-back test, 80% range hit rate at 1, 6 and 12 months: 88 / 92 / 95%

Held-back hit: the 80% range's hit rate on 2017 onward outcomes, with its width fitted only on earlier ones. 80% is the target.

How the ranges held up

Every range was tested against twenty years of month-ends before it was shown.

How this is measured

Each range is re-run at every month-end of the last 20 years using only the data then available, and compared with what happened. The width factor is the one that brings the 80% range to 80% of outcomes, with the 50% range as the cross-check. Because that factor is fitted on the same history it is scored on, a second test fits it on outcomes before 2017 and scores it on 2017 onward.

Across all 81 ranges, the uncalibrated method caught 58% and 85% of past outcomes inside its 50% and 80% ranges, too wide for most indices. After fitting, the figures are 52% and 80%.
On the held-back test, the 80% range caught 86% of outcomes (the median); 40 of 81 landed within 8 points of 80%. Twelve-month figures rest on about nine independent years, so they are noisy.
Read with extra caution, because the held-back hit rate strayed from 80% by more than chance explains: Shanghai Composite (1m, 6m); KOSPI (1m, 6m, 12m); EUR/USD (1m); USD/CNY (1m, 6m); USD/INR (1m); AUD/USD (1m, 6m); USD/CAD (1m, 6m); USD/CHF (6m).
KOSPI moved 9% to 15% in single weeks several times in 2026, which lifts its recent volatility and widens the range. Read its range with extra caution.

Where these numbers come from

Index closes and exchange rates are the site's own series on the Markets pages, and the interest rates behind the currency centres are each central bank's policy rate from the Rates tab. Nothing here is a market price, an analyst view or advice. It is arithmetic on history: a long-run drift, recent volatility, and a width fitted so that, over twenty years of month-ends, the 80% range held 80% of the outcomes. Generated 2026-10-22.

About this dataas of 22 Oct 2026

What the numbers mean

Each row gives a median and an 80% range (and a 50% range on the chart) for where the price may stand at each horizon. Past month-end outcomes landed inside the 80% range about 80% of the time and the 50% range about half the time, by construction of the fit; a separate held-back test fitted before 2017 and scored from 2017 shows how that held up on data the fit never saw.

Sources

Index closes: the Markets series
Exchange rates: the FX series
Central bank policy rates: the Rates tab

How often it refreshes

Rebuilt by a script on demand from the series above; the date shown is the latest close used. Every build also writes a dated snapshot so the forecasts can be graded against what happened.

Known limits

Log-normal ranges: no fat tails, no volatility clustering and no view on events.
Indices are price indices, so dividends are left out.
Policy rates stand in for market interest rates, which makes interest-rate parity a weak centre for high-yield currencies.
The width factor is fitted on the same history it is scored on; the held-back test is the fairer number, and twelve-month results rest on about nine independent years.
KOSPI had unusually large moves in 2026 and its range is wide and less reliable.