The expectation ledger

The 1966 season, against expectation

Every game of 1966scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19651967→
Games
172
Model Brier
0.1961
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
12.4%
Denver Broncos

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1966.

1
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
9
exp 6.79
2
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
12
exp 9.81
3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
11.5
exp 9.38
4
Boston Patriots
Boston
9
exp 7.43
5
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
10.5
exp 9.16
6
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
8
exp 6.83
7
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
8.5
exp 7.81
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
5.5
exp 4.96
9
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
8.5
exp 8.03
10
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
9.5
exp 9.19
11
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
9
exp 8.69
12
New York Jets
New York
7
exp 6.73
Show all 24 rows
13
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
7
exp 6.82
14
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
7
exp 6.85
15
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
3
exp 3.03
16
Denver Broncos
Denver
4
exp 4.28
17
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
9
exp 9.29
18
Miami Dolphins
Miami
3
exp 3.67
19
Detroit Lions
Detroit
4.5
exp 5.66
20
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
7.5
exp 8.74
21
Chicago Bears
Chicago
6
exp 7.47
22
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
4.5
exp 6.64
23
Houston Oilers
Houston
3
exp 5.55
24
New York Giants
New York
1.5
exp 5.19

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1966 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1966-09-02Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins28.7%23-14
1966-09-03Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers58.5%7-45
1966-09-04Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers48.4%7-27
1966-09-09New York JetsatMiami Dolphins35.9%19-14
1966-09-10Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers72.0%0-24
1966-09-10Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers63.5%3-24
1966-09-10Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers40.9%0-31
1966-09-11Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions45.0%3-14
1966-09-11Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills67.9%42-20
1966-09-11Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins47.0%38-14
1966-09-11Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals55.7%13-16
1966-09-11Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons34.5%19-14
1966-09-11New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers44.5%34-34
1966-09-11Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers57.9%20-20
1966-09-16Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams48.4%17-31
1966-09-18Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills87.1%24-58
1966-09-18Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos44.2%24-10
1966-09-18Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns51.1%21-20
1966-09-18Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals60.0%7-23
1966-09-18Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders48.7%32-10
1966-09-18Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings54.1%38-23
1966-09-18New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys65.1%7-52
1966-09-18Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles78.0%10-23
1966-09-18Houston OilersatNew York Jets61.6%13-52
1966-09-18Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers36.3%3-17
1966-09-25San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts69.9%14-36
1966-09-25Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills75.3%20-27
1966-09-25New York JetsatDenver Broncos36.2%16-7
1966-09-25St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns73.4%34-28
1966-09-25San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders41.0%29-20
1966-09-25Kansas City ChiefsatBoston Patriots42.7%43-24
1966-09-25Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers56.2%33-27
1966-09-25Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys63.0%17-28
1966-09-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles62.4%17-35
1966-09-25Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions82.6%10-28
1966-09-25Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers75.5%13-24
1966-09-30San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams60.4%3-34
1966-10-02Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings51.4%13-10
1966-10-02Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs67.7%29-14
1966-10-02Houston OilersatDenver Broncos45.2%38-40
1966-10-02Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants40.1%28-7
1966-10-02St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles56.4%41-10
1966-10-02Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers91.2%10-44
1966-10-02Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins68.0%10-24
1966-10-02Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons23.0%47-14
1966-10-02New York JetsatBoston Patriots51.8%24-24
1966-10-02Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers79.0%14-23
1966-10-08Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills76.8%20-10
1966-10-08Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs86.5%10-37
1966-10-08Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns83.3%10-41
1966-10-08San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets44.3%16-17
1966-10-09Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears50.3%17-27
1966-10-09New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals77.5%19-24
1966-10-09Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins82.1%20-33
1966-10-09Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys74.7%7-56
1966-10-09Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders80.6%10-21
1966-10-09Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions52.5%14-7
1966-10-09Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers31.9%20-21
1966-10-16San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons27.4%44-7
1966-10-16Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears47.5%17-0
1966-10-16San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills52.4%17-17
1966-10-16Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins50.1%7-24
1966-10-16Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals54.5%10-10
1966-10-16Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs76.3%34-13
1966-10-16Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts75.2%14-45
1966-10-16Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants47.4%10-13
1966-10-16Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers48.9%31-14
1966-10-16New York JetsatHouston Oilers42.5%0-24
1966-10-16Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings46.8%7-35
1966-10-23Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears63.3%10-17
1966-10-23Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos25.6%56-10
1966-10-23Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns59.4%21-30
1966-10-23St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins45.8%20-26
1966-10-23San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots43.5%17-35
1966-10-23Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts72.4%17-20
1966-10-23Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilersshock78.1%20-13
1966-10-23Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants51.9%31-3
1966-10-23Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers95.3%3-56
1966-10-23Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets55.6%24-21
1966-10-23Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers66.3%24-27
1966-10-30San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings57.6%3-28
1966-10-30Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets45.8%33-23
1966-10-30Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers89.3%17-24
1966-10-30Cleveland BrownsatAtlanta Falcons14.5%49-17
1966-10-30Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs78.1%23-48
1966-10-30Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams43.6%17-3
1966-10-30Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.9%27-13
1966-10-30Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys85.5%21-52
1966-10-30Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions25.7%31-7
1966-10-30Oakland RaidersatBoston Patriots60.7%21-24
1966-10-31Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Cardinals53.3%17-24
1966-11-06Detroit LionsatChicago Bears74.4%10-10
1966-11-06Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins24.4%29-0
1966-11-06Denver BroncosatBoston Patriotsshock87.6%17-10
1966-11-06Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelersshock20.7%6-16
1966-11-06St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants33.9%20-17
1966-11-06San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs58.3%14-24
1966-11-06Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts75.8%10-37
1966-11-06Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles41.9%23-24
1966-11-06Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packersshock80.3%20-17
1966-11-06Houston OilersatOakland Raiders74.6%23-38
1966-11-06Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers59.4%13-21
1966-11-13San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears64.3%30-30
1966-11-13New York JetsatBuffalo Bills77.8%3-14
1966-11-13Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns73.1%7-27
1966-11-13St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers31.7%9-30
1966-11-13Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers63.9%41-19
1966-11-13Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs88.3%16-34
1966-11-13Baltimore ColtsatAtlanta Falcons10.6%19-7
1966-11-13Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins49.0%31-30
1966-11-13New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams73.6%14-55
1966-11-13Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings74.2%32-31
1966-11-13Houston OilersatBoston Patriots74.7%21-27
1966-11-20Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers77.1%6-13
1966-11-20Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers26.9%42-20
1966-11-20Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos25.1%17-3
1966-11-20Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns71.8%3-14
1966-11-20Boston PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs70.7%27-27
1966-11-20Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions29.7%14-20
1966-11-20Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers35.0%20-7
1966-11-20Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets76.0%13-30
1966-11-20Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants74.4%27-16
1966-11-20Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams51.3%6-21
1966-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers67.6%35-34
1966-11-24San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions56.1%41-14
1966-11-24Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders53.2%31-10
1966-11-24Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys58.3%14-26
1966-11-27Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears87.4%6-23
1966-11-27San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos29.3%17-20
1966-11-27Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals75.0%3-6
1966-11-27Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets38.8%32-24
1966-11-27Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts74.2%23-7
1966-11-27New York GiantsatWashington Redskins80.2%41-72
1966-11-27Boston PatriotsatMiami Dolphins28.0%20-14
1966-11-27Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings34.5%28-16
1966-12-03New York JetsatOakland Raiders73.9%28-28
1966-12-04San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers79.7%7-20
1966-12-04Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts66.2%16-21
1966-12-04Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots40.8%3-14
1966-12-04Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos65.2%7-17
1966-12-04New York GiantsatCleveland Browns88.7%40-49
1966-12-04St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys71.6%17-31
1966-12-04San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers38.9%28-22
1966-12-04Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles69.6%23-27
1966-12-04Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikingsshock85.9%20-13
1966-12-04Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams74.5%3-23
1966-12-10Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts42.0%14-10
1966-12-11Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders82.4%10-28
1966-12-11Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles42.6%21-33
1966-12-11St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons30.4%10-16
1966-12-11New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers69.0%27-42
1966-12-11Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins16.4%19-18
1966-12-11Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys76.4%34-31
1966-12-11Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants46.7%47-28
1966-12-11Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions54.5%28-16
1966-12-11Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers29.3%38-14
1966-12-11Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers59.8%14-41
1966-12-17Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals48.0%38-10
1966-12-17Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets37.7%28-38
1966-12-18Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears60.8%28-41
1966-12-18Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills89.0%21-38
1966-12-18Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers47.5%27-17
1966-12-18Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins61.3%37-28
1966-12-18Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants16.2%17-7
1966-12-18Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins50.4%28-29
1966-12-18Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons48.7%57-33
1966-12-18Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams37.0%27-23
1966-12-18Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers54.8%30-14
1967-01-01Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills59.1%31-7
1967-01-01Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys40.3%34-27
1967-01-08Philadelphia EaglesvsBaltimore Colts58.7%14-20
1967-01-15Green Bay PackersvsKansas City Chiefs38.2%35-10

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.