The expectation ledger

The 1965 season, against expectation

Every game of 1965scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19641966→
Games
158
Model Brier
0.2159
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
15.1%
Washington Redskins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1965.

1
Chicago Bears
Chicago
9
exp 6.69
2
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
10.5
exp 8.93
3
New York Giants
New York
7
exp 5.59
4
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
7.5
exp 6.24
5
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
10.5
exp 9.42
6
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
11
exp 9.95
7
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
8.5
exp 7.56
8
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
10.5
exp 9.61
9
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
7
exp 6.41
10
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
10.5
exp 9.93
11
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
7
exp 6.57
12
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
8
exp 7.83
Show all 22 rows
13
New York Jets
New York
5.5
exp 5.41
14
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6
exp 6.02
15
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
4
exp 4.35
16
Denver Broncos
Denver
4
exp 4.63
17
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6.5
exp 7.23
18
Boston Patriots
Boston
5
exp 6.20
19
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
5
exp 6.37
20
Houston Oilers
Houston
4
exp 5.51
21
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
2
exp 5.07
22
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
5
exp 8.48

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1965 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1965-09-11Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills66.9%7-24
1965-09-11Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers79.4%31-34
1965-09-12Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders53.3%10-37
1965-09-12New York JetsatHouston Oilers60.5%21-27
1965-09-18Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets48.1%14-10
1965-09-19Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos22.4%30-15
1965-09-19Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins40.8%17-7
1965-09-19St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles46.7%27-34
1965-09-19San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders56.6%17-6
1965-09-19Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts67.1%16-35
1965-09-19New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys65.8%2-31
1965-09-19Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions73.5%0-20
1965-09-19Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers38.1%41-9
1965-09-19Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers47.1%10-31
1965-09-19Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers53.8%24-52
1965-09-24Denver BroncosatBoston Patriots79.0%27-10
1965-09-26Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams57.6%28-30
1965-09-26New York JetsatBuffalo Bills85.5%21-33
1965-09-26St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns72.7%49-13
1965-09-26Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers66.2%10-10
1965-09-26Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers62.2%17-20
1965-09-26Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys63.2%7-27
1965-09-26New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles70.2%16-14
1965-09-26Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings51.9%31-29
1965-09-26Houston OilersatOakland Raiders58.9%17-21
1965-09-26Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers62.9%17-27
1965-10-03San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts74.9%24-27
1965-10-03Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers83.5%14-23
1965-10-03Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills77.8%12-17
1965-10-03New York JetsatDenver Broncos59.0%13-16
1965-10-03Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles43.9%35-17
1965-10-03Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers69.9%14-31
1965-10-03Boston PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs67.1%17-27
1965-10-03Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions77.8%10-14
1965-10-03New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers61.5%23-13
1965-10-03Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams49.3%38-35
1965-10-04Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals68.4%13-20
1965-10-08Oakland RaidersatBoston Patriots52.2%24-10
1965-10-09Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns82.0%19-24
1965-10-09New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings70.7%14-40
1965-10-10San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers80.4%10-27
1965-10-10Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears59.3%6-31
1965-10-10San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills70.4%34-3
1965-10-10Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos41.3%31-23
1965-10-10St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins36.7%37-16
1965-10-10Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts62.4%7-31
1965-10-10Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys67.3%35-24
1965-10-16Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets39.9%24-24
1965-10-17San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams50.0%45-21
1965-10-17Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings70.9%45-37
1965-10-17Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs50.9%23-7
1965-10-17Houston OilersatDenver Broncos48.9%17-28
1965-10-17Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns76.4%17-23
1965-10-17St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers28.9%20-7
1965-10-17San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots29.9%13-13
1965-10-17Baltimore ColtsatWashington Redskins27.4%38-7
1965-10-17Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants52.4%27-35
1965-10-17Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions45.2%31-21
1965-10-23San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets27.6%34-9
1965-10-24Detroit LionsatChicago Bears50.6%10-38
1965-10-24Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills84.0%13-31
1965-10-24Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants36.1%38-14
1965-10-24Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinalsshock84.9%24-20
1965-10-24Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers47.1%36-38
1965-10-24Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts88.3%20-35
1965-10-24Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers85.3%3-13
1965-10-24Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles69.0%20-14
1965-10-24Boston PatriotsatOakland Raiders71.8%21-30
1965-10-24Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers57.8%42-41
1965-10-31Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears34.7%10-31
1965-10-31Houston OilersatBuffalo Billsshock82.0%19-17
1965-10-31Denver BroncosatNew York Jets54.5%10-45
1965-10-31Minnesota VikingsatCleveland Browns73.1%27-17
1965-10-31St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants35.0%10-14
1965-10-31Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargersshock84.5%22-6
1965-10-31Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs56.2%7-14
1965-10-31Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins59.3%21-23
1965-10-31Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers53.4%13-22
1965-10-31Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams38.0%31-7
1965-10-31Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers35.2%34-28
1965-11-07San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys51.1%31-39
1965-11-07Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears43.3%26-21
1965-11-07Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots36.5%23-7
1965-11-07San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos30.3%35-21
1965-11-07Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns80.3%34-38
1965-11-07Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals77.1%17-21
1965-11-07New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs74.7%13-10
1965-11-07Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants61.0%23-7
1965-11-07Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers73.8%12-7
1965-11-07Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers52.9%33-21
1965-11-07Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings83.4%13-24
1965-11-14San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions73.3%27-21
1965-11-14St. Louis CardinalsatChicago Bears55.4%13-34
1965-11-14Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders44.3%17-14
1965-11-14Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers70.0%31-21
1965-11-14New York GiantsatCleveland Browns81.3%21-34
1965-11-14San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs45.8%7-31
1965-11-14Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings41.2%41-21
1965-11-14Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.8%14-21
1965-11-14Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys62.9%17-24
1965-11-14New York JetsatBoston Patriots61.7%30-20
1965-11-14Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers88.6%3-6
1965-11-21Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions53.7%17-10
1965-11-21Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos40.2%28-20
1965-11-21Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys38.6%24-17
1965-11-21New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals77.8%28-15
1965-11-21Kansas City ChiefsatBoston Patriots41.3%10-10
1965-11-21Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Colts88.6%24-34
1965-11-21Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers53.3%31-3
1965-11-21Houston OilersatNew York Jets66.4%14-41
1965-11-21Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings46.7%38-13
1965-11-21Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers78.2%27-30
1965-11-25Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers45.8%20-20
1965-11-25Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions30.8%24-24
1965-11-28San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings61.4%45-24
1965-11-28Chicago BearsatNew York Giants37.1%35-14
1965-11-28Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers25.2%42-21
1965-11-28Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals70.1%28-24
1965-11-28Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs77.9%21-52
1965-11-28Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins64.3%31-34
1965-11-28Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets67.6%27-23
1965-11-28Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Ramsshock17.7%10-21
1965-12-04New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers73.1%7-38
1965-12-05Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts71.4%13-0
1965-12-05Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers21.8%29-18
1965-12-05Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders79.3%13-24
1965-12-05Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns77.0%16-24
1965-12-05Los Angeles RamsatSt. Louis Cardinals72.9%27-3
1965-12-05Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles60.8%21-19
1965-12-05Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants68.3%10-35
1965-12-05Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers76.6%19-24
1965-12-05Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers61.1%14-17
1965-12-11St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys61.8%13-27
1965-12-12San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears74.1%20-61
1965-12-12Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills73.8%25-34
1965-12-12Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos49.0%28-20
1965-12-12Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams29.1%7-42
1965-12-12San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers28.8%37-26
1965-12-12Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts66.6%42-27
1965-12-12New York GiantsatWashington Redskins64.8%27-10
1965-12-12Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers45.1%47-13
1965-12-12New York JetsatOakland Raiders74.0%14-24
1965-12-12Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions65.6%29-7
1965-12-18Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams37.1%20-17
1965-12-18Houston OilersatBoston Patriots73.8%14-42
1965-12-19Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bearsshock79.7%24-17
1965-12-19Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets25.6%12-14
1965-12-19Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs81.6%35-45
1965-12-19Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals34.0%27-24
1965-12-19Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers63.2%14-24
1965-12-19Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins76.6%14-35
1965-12-19Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants60.8%38-20
1965-12-19Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles58.6%35-28
1965-12-19Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers40.5%24-24
1965-12-26Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers52.6%23-0
1965-12-26Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers60.7%10-13
1966-01-02Cleveland BrownsatGreen Bay Packers68.3%12-23
1966-01-09Baltimore ColtsvsDallas Cowboys32.4%35-3

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.