The expectation ledger
The 1964 season, against expectation
Every game of 1964scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
157
Model Brier
0.2181
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.6%
Minnesota Vikings
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1964.
Show all 22 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1964 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1964-09-12 | Denver BroncosatNew York Jets | 63.3% | 6-30 |
| 1964-09-12 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 46.3% | 16-6 |
| 1964-09-12 | Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers | 72.8% | 21-27 |
| 1964-09-13 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 61.1% | 12-23 |
| 1964-09-13 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 57.9% | 17-34 |
| 1964-09-13 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 33.5% | 27-13 |
| 1964-09-13 | Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings | 45.4% | 24-34 |
| 1964-09-13 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 28.2% | 7-38 |
| 1964-09-13 | Boston PatriotsatOakland Raiders | 59.0% | 17-14 |
| 1964-09-13 | Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers | 74.7% | 26-14 |
| 1964-09-13 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 40.6% | 26-17 |
| 1964-09-19 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 47.3% | 17-17 |
| 1964-09-19 | Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers | 53.2% | 28-42 |
| 1964-09-20 | San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 68.2% | 28-24 |
| 1964-09-20 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 36.8% | 34-28 |
| 1964-09-20 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 78.8% | 13-30 |
| 1964-09-20 | St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 63.4% | 33-33 |
| 1964-09-20 | Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers | 65.6% | 33-28 |
| 1964-09-20 | Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 79.1% | 21-20 |
| 1964-09-20 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 66.4% | 18-24 |
| 1964-09-20 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 50.2% | 24-27 |
| 1964-09-25 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 82.8% | 10-13 |
| 1964-09-26 | San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills | 53.4% | 3-30 |
| 1964-09-27 | Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts | 42.6% | 0-52 |
| 1964-09-27 | Houston OilersatDenver Broncos | 37.9% | 38-17 |
| 1964-09-27 | Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 38.2% | 28-20 |
| 1964-09-27 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 60.2% | 21-9 |
| 1964-09-27 | Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers | 71.4% | 17-23 |
| 1964-09-27 | New York JetsatBoston Patriots | 76.8% | 10-26 |
| 1964-09-27 | Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.7% | 13-22 |
| 1964-09-27 | St. Louis CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers | 38.5% | 23-13 |
| 1964-09-28 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 42.4% | 14-10 |
| 1964-10-03 | Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 72.6% | 20-23 |
| 1964-10-03 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets | 41.9% | 17-17 |
| 1964-10-04 | Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 24.2% | 39-10 |
| 1964-10-04 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 79.9% | 6-27 |
| 1964-10-04 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 28.3% | 23-17 |
| 1964-10-04 | Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs | 58.6% | 7-28 |
| 1964-10-04 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 70.7% | 20-35 |
| 1964-10-04 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 42.2% | 7-21 |
| 1964-10-04 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 55.9% | 3-26 |
| 1964-10-04 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packersshock | 85.4% | 24-23 |
| 1964-10-04 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 30.4% | 21-31 |
| 1964-10-09 | San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots | 67.6% | 26-17 |
| 1964-10-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 72.6% | 23-7 |
| 1964-10-10 | Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets | 55.3% | 13-35 |
| 1964-10-11 | San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers | 85.5% | 14-24 |
| 1964-10-11 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 71.1% | 17-38 |
| 1964-10-11 | Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers | 48.6% | 48-17 |
| 1964-10-11 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 27.7% | 27-33 |
| 1964-10-11 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 43.7% | 20-35 |
| 1964-10-11 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 41.1% | 13-13 |
| 1964-10-11 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 43.5% | 24-20 |
| 1964-10-12 | Baltimore ColtsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 58.2% | 47-27 |
| 1964-10-16 | Oakland RaidersatBoston Patriots | 77.1% | 43-43 |
| 1964-10-17 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 57.7% | 21-24 |
| 1964-10-18 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 64.0% | 14-42 |
| 1964-10-18 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 59.3% | 10-0 |
| 1964-10-18 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 45.9% | 35-22 |
| 1964-10-18 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 84.8% | 14-42 |
| 1964-10-18 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 38.0% | 20-16 |
| 1964-10-18 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 80.3% | 24-38 |
| 1964-10-18 | Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts | 52.3% | 21-24 |
| 1964-10-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 74.3% | 23-17 |
| 1964-10-18 | Pittsburgh SteelersatMinnesota Vikings | 44.5% | 10-30 |
| 1964-10-23 | Kansas City ChiefsatBoston Patriots | 69.2% | 7-24 |
| 1964-10-24 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 79.0% | 24-34 |
| 1964-10-25 | Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins | 32.5% | 20-27 |
| 1964-10-25 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 72.3% | 7-40 |
| 1964-10-25 | New York GiantsatCleveland Browns | 68.7% | 20-42 |
| 1964-10-25 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 78.3% | 31-13 |
| 1964-10-25 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 40.5% | 20-17 |
| 1964-10-25 | Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions | 54.9% | 34-0 |
| 1964-10-25 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 68.0% | 34-10 |
| 1964-10-25 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packersshock | 80.8% | 27-17 |
| 1964-10-25 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers | 48.0% | 27-22 |
| 1964-10-31 | Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets | 41.4% | 14-35 |
| 1964-11-01 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts | 89.1% | 7-37 |
| 1964-11-01 | Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears | 68.7% | 24-10 |
| 1964-11-01 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 81.9% | 10-24 |
| 1964-11-01 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 78.2% | 39-49 |
| 1964-11-01 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 41.3% | 30-17 |
| 1964-11-01 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 56.0% | 17-34 |
| 1964-11-01 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 76.8% | 17-31 |
| 1964-11-01 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 72.5% | 21-10 |
| 1964-11-01 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 65.6% | 17-37 |
| 1964-11-01 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 41.3% | 42-13 |
| 1964-11-06 | Houston OilersatBoston Patriots | 73.3% | 24-25 |
| 1964-11-08 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 71.2% | 7-24 |
| 1964-11-08 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears | 30.9% | 40-24 |
| 1964-11-08 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 37.3% | 20-7 |
| 1964-11-08 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 20.4% | 31-20 |
| 1964-11-08 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 80.8% | 24-34 |
| 1964-11-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 64.3% | 30-34 |
| 1964-11-08 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 64.7% | 7-42 |
| 1964-11-08 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 61.7% | 31-21 |
| 1964-11-08 | Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams | 66.0% | 10-20 |
| 1964-11-08 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 66.9% | 7-30 |
| 1964-11-15 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 66.4% | 34-24 |
| 1964-11-15 | Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 74.4% | 36-28 |
| 1964-11-15 | New York JetsatDenver Broncos | 34.3% | 16-20 |
| 1964-11-15 | Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns | 66.0% | 21-37 |
| 1964-11-15 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 61.3% | 10-10 |
| 1964-11-15 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 43.5% | 28-14 |
| 1964-11-15 | Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts | 83.9% | 14-17 |
| 1964-11-15 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 61.0% | 30-0 |
| 1964-11-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 70.1% | 17-14 |
| 1964-11-15 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 57.5% | 10-20 |
| 1964-11-15 | Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 19.8% | 14-24 |
| 1964-11-20 | Denver BroncosatBoston Patriots | 86.9% | 7-12 |
| 1964-11-22 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 71.8% | 21-23 |
| 1964-11-22 | Cleveland BrownsatGreen Bay Packers | 57.1% | 21-28 |
| 1964-11-22 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 55.0% | 38-13 |
| 1964-11-22 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 48.9% | 28-19 |
| 1964-11-22 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 28.8% | 24-7 |
| 1964-11-22 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 54.1% | 16-28 |
| 1964-11-22 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 71.1% | 44-17 |
| 1964-11-22 | New York JetsatOakland Raiders | 57.2% | 26-35 |
| 1964-11-22 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 69.0% | 23-23 |
| 1964-11-26 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 64.8% | 27-24 |
| 1964-11-26 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 60.4% | 27-24 |
| 1964-11-29 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 39.1% | 20-20 |
| 1964-11-29 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 82.1% | 24-38 |
| 1964-11-29 | St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 47.2% | 21-20 |
| 1964-11-29 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 48.9% | 14-27 |
| 1964-11-29 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 66.9% | 21-36 |
| 1964-11-29 | Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys | 36.0% | 45-21 |
| 1964-11-29 | Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers | 31.6% | 34-17 |
| 1964-11-29 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 61.2% | 13-34 |
| 1964-11-29 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers | 18.1% | 14-3 |
| 1964-12-05 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 39.4% | 17-3 |
| 1964-12-06 | Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders | 32.0% | 13-16 |
| 1964-12-06 | Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 45.1% | 19-28 |
| 1964-12-06 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 78.8% | 3-38 |
| 1964-12-06 | Boston PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs | 41.3% | 31-24 |
| 1964-12-06 | Detroit LionsatBaltimore Coltsshock | 82.5% | 31-14 |
| 1964-12-06 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 68.5% | 14-7 |
| 1964-12-06 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 53.4% | 14-24 |
| 1964-12-06 | Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants | 45.7% | 30-21 |
| 1964-12-06 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 51.0% | 7-28 |
| 1964-12-12 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 29.9% | 52-20 |
| 1964-12-13 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 78.8% | 7-24 |
| 1964-12-13 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 55.8% | 41-14 |
| 1964-12-13 | Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos | 19.6% | 30-19 |
| 1964-12-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 74.5% | 34-36 |
| 1964-12-13 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargersshock | 79.9% | 49-6 |
| 1964-12-13 | Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts | 82.4% | 17-45 |
| 1964-12-13 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 54.8% | 14-17 |
| 1964-12-13 | New York JetsatHouston Oilers | 48.5% | 17-33 |
| 1964-12-13 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 23.7% | 24-24 |
| 1964-12-20 | Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots | 56.9% | 24-14 |
| 1964-12-20 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 71.0% | 15-34 |
| 1964-12-20 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 45.7% | 20-21 |
| 1964-12-20 | New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs | 73.6% | 7-24 |
| 1964-12-26 | San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills | 72.7% | 7-20 |
| 1964-12-27 | Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns | 50.3% | 0-27 |
| 1965-01-03 | Green Bay PackersvsSt. Louis Cardinals | 39.2% | 17-24 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.