The expectation ledger
The 1963 season, against expectation
Every game of 1963scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
158
Model Brier
0.1989
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.6%
Los Angeles Rams
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1963.
Show all 22 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1963 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1963-09-07 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 39.5% | 59-7 |
| 1963-09-07 | Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilersshock | 85.3% | 24-13 |
| 1963-09-08 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 44.1% | 10-14 |
| 1963-09-08 | New York JetsatBoston Patriots | 73.5% | 14-38 |
| 1963-09-14 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 74.5% | 14-20 |
| 1963-09-14 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 58.8% | 34-7 |
| 1963-09-14 | Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers | 44.9% | 13-17 |
| 1963-09-14 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 27.1% | 23-2 |
| 1963-09-15 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 74.4% | 10-3 |
| 1963-09-15 | Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders | 43.8% | 17-35 |
| 1963-09-15 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 75.0% | 14-37 |
| 1963-09-15 | New York GiantsatBaltimore Colts | 43.1% | 37-28 |
| 1963-09-15 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 51.2% | 21-21 |
| 1963-09-15 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers | 72.7% | 24-20 |
| 1963-09-21 | Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams | 56.1% | 37-14 |
| 1963-09-22 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 31.1% | 28-7 |
| 1963-09-22 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 38.6% | 27-27 |
| 1963-09-22 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 40.2% | 41-24 |
| 1963-09-22 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 54.3% | 28-24 |
| 1963-09-22 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 40.7% | 0-31 |
| 1963-09-22 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 37.4% | 17-24 |
| 1963-09-22 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 62.5% | 10-31 |
| 1963-09-22 | Boston PatriotsatOakland Raiders | 46.7% | 20-14 |
| 1963-09-22 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers | 54.0% | 20-14 |
| 1963-09-28 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 52.8% | 31-20 |
| 1963-09-28 | Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets | 60.3% | 7-10 |
| 1963-09-29 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 52.0% | 14-45 |
| 1963-09-29 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 57.7% | 37-21 |
| 1963-09-29 | Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 40.9% | 10-14 |
| 1963-09-29 | Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns | 85.0% | 6-20 |
| 1963-09-29 | St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 65.5% | 10-23 |
| 1963-09-29 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 36.7% | 10-24 |
| 1963-09-29 | Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 79.0% | 20-31 |
| 1963-09-29 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 64.4% | 17-21 |
| 1963-09-29 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 36.2% | 37-14 |
| 1963-10-05 | Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 65.5% | 0-12 |
| 1963-10-05 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 59.0% | 23-35 |
| 1963-10-05 | Boston PatriotsatNew York Jets | 46.9% | 24-31 |
| 1963-10-06 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 80.1% | 3-26 |
| 1963-10-06 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears | 77.6% | 3-10 |
| 1963-10-06 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 50.4% | 34-50 |
| 1963-10-06 | St. Louis CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings | 48.3% | 56-14 |
| 1963-10-06 | Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs | 63.5% | 7-28 |
| 1963-10-06 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 32.8% | 24-14 |
| 1963-10-06 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 65.0% | 21-24 |
| 1963-10-06 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 92.3% | 10-42 |
| 1963-10-11 | Oakland RaidersatBoston Patriots | 73.2% | 14-20 |
| 1963-10-13 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts | 72.9% | 3-20 |
| 1963-10-13 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 16.5% | 52-14 |
| 1963-10-13 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 75.9% | 35-26 |
| 1963-10-13 | Houston OilersatDenver Broncos | 49.3% | 33-24 |
| 1963-10-13 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 65.6% | 35-24 |
| 1963-10-13 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 55.8% | 23-24 |
| 1963-10-13 | New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers | 60.4% | 20-24 |
| 1963-10-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 58.3% | 37-24 |
| 1963-10-13 | Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys | 28.7% | 14-17 |
| 1963-10-13 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 19.3% | 37-28 |
| 1963-10-18 | Denver BroncosatBoston Patriots | 68.7% | 21-40 |
| 1963-10-20 | Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers | 65.2% | 14-28 |
| 1963-10-20 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 79.3% | 7-37 |
| 1963-10-20 | Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 35.8% | 30-7 |
| 1963-10-20 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 70.6% | 38-17 |
| 1963-10-20 | Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions | 66.9% | 25-21 |
| 1963-10-20 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 78.4% | 27-38 |
| 1963-10-20 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 83.6% | 21-37 |
| 1963-10-20 | New York JetsatOakland Raiders | 50.0% | 26-49 |
| 1963-10-20 | Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams | 49.9% | 24-27 |
| 1963-10-20 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 20.6% | 14-20 |
| 1963-10-26 | Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 54.1% | 21-28 |
| 1963-10-26 | Denver BroncosatNew York Jets | 58.4% | 35-35 |
| 1963-10-27 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 46.5% | 21-28 |
| 1963-10-27 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears | 81.7% | 7-16 |
| 1963-10-27 | New York GiantsatCleveland Browns | 62.9% | 33-6 |
| 1963-10-27 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 40.1% | 21-7 |
| 1963-10-27 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 73.7% | 34-33 |
| 1963-10-27 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 66.2% | 7-28 |
| 1963-10-27 | Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts | 32.8% | 34-20 |
| 1963-10-27 | Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers | 80.2% | 21-27 |
| 1963-10-27 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 81.0% | 10-28 |
| 1963-11-01 | Houston OilersatBoston Patriots | 47.5% | 3-45 |
| 1963-11-02 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets | 44.5% | 53-7 |
| 1963-11-03 | Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts | 40.6% | 17-7 |
| 1963-11-03 | Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos | 46.9% | 30-28 |
| 1963-11-03 | Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 36.9% | 23-17 |
| 1963-11-03 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 41.8% | 38-21 |
| 1963-11-03 | Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders | 48.4% | 7-10 |
| 1963-11-03 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 61.2% | 20-35 |
| 1963-11-03 | Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers | 80.0% | 14-33 |
| 1963-11-03 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 60.0% | 13-21 |
| 1963-11-03 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 35.6% | 45-7 |
| 1963-11-08 | Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 65.6% | 22-7 |
| 1963-11-09 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 72.9% | 17-27 |
| 1963-11-10 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 91.2% | 0-6 |
| 1963-11-10 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 51.2% | 7-9 |
| 1963-11-10 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 79.8% | 20-24 |
| 1963-11-10 | San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots | 59.2% | 7-6 |
| 1963-11-10 | Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts | 47.5% | 21-24 |
| 1963-11-10 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 86.4% | 14-42 |
| 1963-11-10 | New York JetsatHouston Oilers | 79.8% | 27-31 |
| 1963-11-10 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 93.0% | 7-28 |
| 1963-11-10 | Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers | 55.0% | 24-31 |
| 1963-11-17 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants | 89.5% | 14-48 |
| 1963-11-17 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 47.2% | 7-26 |
| 1963-11-17 | San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills | 55.7% | 23-13 |
| 1963-11-17 | New York JetsatDenver Broncos | 63.2% | 14-9 |
| 1963-11-17 | St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 70.0% | 20-14 |
| 1963-11-17 | Kansas City ChiefsatBoston Patriots | 71.3% | 24-24 |
| 1963-11-17 | Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikings | 37.9% | 37-34 |
| 1963-11-17 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 27.5% | 34-28 |
| 1963-11-17 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 53.3% | 20-27 |
| 1963-11-17 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lionsshock | 85.4% | 28-21 |
| 1963-11-24 | San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers | 91.5% | 10-28 |
| 1963-11-24 | Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Steelers | 41.1% | 17-17 |
| 1963-11-24 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 80.1% | 17-27 |
| 1963-11-24 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giantsshock | 77.4% | 24-17 |
| 1963-11-24 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 36.9% | 16-17 |
| 1963-11-24 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 69.2% | 13-10 |
| 1963-11-24 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 35.0% | 31-34 |
| 1963-11-28 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 45.1% | 26-10 |
| 1963-11-28 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 28.9% | 13-13 |
| 1963-12-01 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 90.6% | 17-17 |
| 1963-12-01 | Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots | 63.1% | 7-17 |
| 1963-12-01 | Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 59.7% | 24-10 |
| 1963-12-01 | Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers | 63.0% | 0-27 |
| 1963-12-01 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 51.0% | 0-17 |
| 1963-12-01 | Baltimore ColtsatWashington Redskins | 35.0% | 36-20 |
| 1963-12-01 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 23.1% | 34-27 |
| 1963-12-01 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 82.2% | 20-20 |
| 1963-12-01 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 58.8% | 21-17 |
| 1963-12-07 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 18.1% | 31-14 |
| 1963-12-08 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 91.0% | 7-27 |
| 1963-12-08 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 67.8% | 14-45 |
| 1963-12-08 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 68.9% | 21-52 |
| 1963-12-08 | Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions | 44.9% | 10-38 |
| 1963-12-08 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 78.7% | 14-38 |
| 1963-12-08 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 44.0% | 27-41 |
| 1963-12-08 | Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts | 77.5% | 10-41 |
| 1963-12-08 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 91.4% | 14-44 |
| 1963-12-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 32.6% | 24-19 |
| 1963-12-08 | Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers | 56.9% | 46-28 |
| 1963-12-14 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 44.1% | 19-10 |
| 1963-12-14 | Boston PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs | 39.5% | 3-35 |
| 1963-12-14 | Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers | 13.8% | 21-17 |
| 1963-12-15 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 76.7% | 14-24 |
| 1963-12-15 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 82.2% | 31-35 |
| 1963-12-15 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 24.9% | 27-20 |
| 1963-12-15 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinalsshock | 81.8% | 28-24 |
| 1963-12-15 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 48.1% | 20-14 |
| 1963-12-15 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 78.8% | 16-19 |
| 1963-12-15 | Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 60.0% | 34-13 |
| 1963-12-15 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 71.5% | 17-33 |
| 1963-12-22 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 87.3% | 20-58 |
| 1963-12-22 | New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs | 72.8% | 0-48 |
| 1963-12-22 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 66.9% | 49-52 |
| 1963-12-28 | Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 57.6% | 26-8 |
| 1963-12-29 | New York GiantsatChicago Bears | 61.1% | 10-14 |
| 1964-01-05 | Cleveland BrownsvsGreen Bay Packers | 64.0% | 23-40 |
| 1964-01-05 | Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers | 63.1% | 10-51 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.