The expectation ledger
The 1961 season, against expectation
Every game of 1961scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
157
Model Brier
0.1949
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.7%
Dallas Cowboys
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1961.
Show all 22 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1961 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1961-09-09 | New York TitansatBoston Patriots | 54.9% | 21-20 |
| 1961-09-09 | Oakland RaidersatHouston Oilers | 76.9% | 0-55 |
| 1961-09-10 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 67.2% | 22-10 |
| 1961-09-10 | San Diego ChargersatDallas Texans | 61.5% | 26-10 |
| 1961-09-16 | Denver BroncosatBoston Patriots | 56.8% | 17-45 |
| 1961-09-17 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 34.0% | 13-37 |
| 1961-09-17 | New York TitansatBuffalo Bills | 53.2% | 31-41 |
| 1961-09-17 | Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 57.0% | 20-27 |
| 1961-09-17 | St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants | 62.9% | 21-10 |
| 1961-09-17 | Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 77.3% | 0-44 |
| 1961-09-17 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 68.1% | 24-27 |
| 1961-09-17 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 32.8% | 24-27 |
| 1961-09-17 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 64.9% | 17-13 |
| 1961-09-17 | Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers | 78.5% | 3-35 |
| 1961-09-23 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 59.7% | 21-17 |
| 1961-09-23 | Boston PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 58.9% | 23-21 |
| 1961-09-24 | San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers | 60.6% | 10-30 |
| 1961-09-24 | Denver BroncosatNew York Titans | 64.0% | 28-35 |
| 1961-09-24 | St. Louis CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 65.8% | 17-20 |
| 1961-09-24 | Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers | 57.3% | 24-34 |
| 1961-09-24 | Dallas TexansatOakland Raiders | 43.9% | 42-35 |
| 1961-09-24 | Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts | 54.9% | 16-15 |
| 1961-09-24 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 85.5% | 7-14 |
| 1961-09-24 | Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys | 56.6% | 7-21 |
| 1961-09-24 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 57.4% | 17-14 |
| 1961-09-30 | San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills | 37.2% | 19-11 |
| 1961-10-01 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 65.0% | 49-0 |
| 1961-10-01 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 74.2% | 0-24 |
| 1961-10-01 | Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders | 55.9% | 19-33 |
| 1961-10-01 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 85.0% | 7-25 |
| 1961-10-01 | St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 70.0% | 30-27 |
| 1961-10-01 | Houston OilersatDallas Texans | 52.4% | 21-26 |
| 1961-10-01 | Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Colts | 81.5% | 33-34 |
| 1961-10-01 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 37.0% | 24-21 |
| 1961-10-01 | Boston PatriotsatNew York Titans | 58.8% | 30-37 |
| 1961-10-01 | Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams | 53.4% | 14-24 |
| 1961-10-07 | San Diego ChargersatBoston Patriots | 36.8% | 38-27 |
| 1961-10-08 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 68.1% | 31-17 |
| 1961-10-08 | Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilersshock | 75.3% | 22-12 |
| 1961-10-08 | Dallas TexansatDenver Broncos | 36.7% | 19-12 |
| 1961-10-08 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 86.3% | 7-31 |
| 1961-10-08 | New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 62.5% | 24-9 |
| 1961-10-08 | Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 68.8% | 7-45 |
| 1961-10-08 | Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings | 56.2% | 28-0 |
| 1961-10-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 76.7% | 16-21 |
| 1961-10-08 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 75.5% | 0-35 |
| 1961-10-13 | Houston OilersatBoston Patriots | 48.1% | 31-31 |
| 1961-10-15 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 20.0% | 38-24 |
| 1961-10-15 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears | 57.1% | 10-24 |
| 1961-10-15 | Dallas TexansatBuffalo Bills | 46.5% | 24-27 |
| 1961-10-15 | Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos | 53.9% | 24-27 |
| 1961-10-15 | Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns | 57.9% | 49-17 |
| 1961-10-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals | 47.2% | 20-7 |
| 1961-10-15 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Titans | 38.5% | 25-10 |
| 1961-10-15 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 72.1% | 0-20 |
| 1961-10-15 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 35.1% | 31-10 |
| 1961-10-15 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 65.0% | 13-14 |
| 1961-10-22 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 45.7% | 0-31 |
| 1961-10-22 | Buffalo BillsatBoston Patriots | 53.1% | 21-52 |
| 1961-10-22 | New York TitansatDenver Broncos | 47.1% | 10-27 |
| 1961-10-22 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 43.1% | 30-28 |
| 1961-10-22 | St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 36.1% | 24-0 |
| 1961-10-22 | San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders | 24.5% | 41-10 |
| 1961-10-22 | Dallas TexansatHouston Oilers | 55.7% | 7-38 |
| 1961-10-22 | Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions | 59.2% | 17-14 |
| 1961-10-22 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 25.3% | 43-7 |
| 1961-10-22 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants | 77.7% | 14-24 |
| 1961-10-22 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 14.0% | 33-7 |
| 1961-10-29 | San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers | 41.9% | 10-20 |
| 1961-10-29 | Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts | 52.0% | 21-20 |
| 1961-10-29 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 45.5% | 28-16 |
| 1961-10-29 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 86.5% | 0-37 |
| 1961-10-29 | Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 49.6% | 21-10 |
| 1961-10-29 | Boston PatriotsatDallas Texans | 64.7% | 18-17 |
| 1961-10-29 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 17.3% | 27-24 |
| 1961-10-29 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giantsshock | 85.3% | 17-16 |
| 1961-10-29 | New York TitansatOakland Raiders | 51.0% | 14-6 |
| 1961-10-29 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 52.9% | 28-10 |
| 1961-10-29 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 93.5% | 10-28 |
| 1961-11-03 | Dallas TexansatBoston Patriots | 56.2% | 21-28 |
| 1961-11-05 | Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 70.5% | 14-16 |
| 1961-11-05 | Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 68.8% | 31-22 |
| 1961-11-05 | Houston OilersatDenver Broncos | 35.7% | 55-14 |
| 1961-11-05 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Brownsshock | 75.2% | 17-13 |
| 1961-11-05 | St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 42.1% | 31-17 |
| 1961-11-05 | New York TitansatSan Diego Chargers | 83.8% | 13-48 |
| 1961-11-05 | Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts | 33.8% | 21-45 |
| 1961-11-05 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 87.9% | 0-53 |
| 1961-11-05 | Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams | 74.2% | 17-31 |
| 1961-11-05 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.1% | 20-20 |
| 1961-11-11 | Oakland RaidersatNew York Titans | 67.1% | 12-23 |
| 1961-11-12 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 40.2% | 7-17 |
| 1961-11-12 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 48.3% | 31-28 |
| 1961-11-12 | Buffalo BillsatDallas Texans | 71.0% | 30-20 |
| 1961-11-12 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 19.6% | 19-16 |
| 1961-11-12 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 21.8% | 17-6 |
| 1961-11-12 | Detroit LionsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 60.3% | 45-14 |
| 1961-11-12 | Baltimore ColtsatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 22.5% | 20-28 |
| 1961-11-12 | Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers | 78.3% | 7-37 |
| 1961-11-12 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 50.3% | 21-38 |
| 1961-11-12 | Boston PatriotsatHouston Oilers | 71.7% | 15-27 |
| 1961-11-17 | Oakland RaidersatBoston Patriots | 73.5% | 17-20 |
| 1961-11-19 | Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos | 51.0% | 23-10 |
| 1961-11-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 54.4% | 24-45 |
| 1961-11-19 | St. Louis CardinalsatBaltimore Colts | 63.8% | 0-16 |
| 1961-11-19 | Dallas TexansatSan Diego Chargers | 85.6% | 14-24 |
| 1961-11-19 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 66.0% | 28-28 |
| 1961-11-19 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 72.1% | 21-42 |
| 1961-11-19 | New York TitansatHouston Oilers | 77.1% | 13-49 |
| 1961-11-19 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 25.7% | 37-10 |
| 1961-11-19 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 83.0% | 17-35 |
| 1961-11-19 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 54.7% | 31-41 |
| 1961-11-23 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Titans | 57.9% | 14-21 |
| 1961-11-23 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 46.4% | 17-9 |
| 1961-11-26 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 71.4% | 24-28 |
| 1961-11-26 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 87.8% | 14-45 |
| 1961-11-26 | New York GiantsatCleveland Browns | 56.9% | 37-21 |
| 1961-11-26 | St. Louis CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 66.4% | 27-30 |
| 1961-11-26 | Oakland RaidersatDallas Texans | 69.2% | 11-43 |
| 1961-11-26 | Baltimore ColtsatWashington Redskins | 27.5% | 27-6 |
| 1961-11-26 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 87.2% | 13-35 |
| 1961-11-26 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers | 85.9% | 28-38 |
| 1961-12-03 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts | 59.4% | 17-20 |
| 1961-12-03 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 57.2% | 16-15 |
| 1961-12-03 | Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders | 45.8% | 26-21 |
| 1961-12-03 | Boston PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 37.5% | 28-24 |
| 1961-12-03 | Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys | 24.2% | 38-17 |
| 1961-12-03 | Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals | 79.3% | 24-38 |
| 1961-12-03 | San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers | 49.6% | 13-33 |
| 1961-12-03 | Dallas TexansatNew York Titans | 59.6% | 7-28 |
| 1961-12-03 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 46.1% | 35-24 |
| 1961-12-03 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 60.1% | 17-20 |
| 1961-12-03 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 39.3% | 21-42 |
| 1961-12-09 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 35.3% | 17-34 |
| 1961-12-09 | Boston PatriotsatOakland Raiders | 34.8% | 35-21 |
| 1961-12-10 | Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears | 48.1% | 14-17 |
| 1961-12-10 | Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers | 83.1% | 10-28 |
| 1961-12-10 | Denver BroncosatDallas Texans | 73.4% | 21-49 |
| 1961-12-10 | Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals | 76.8% | 13-31 |
| 1961-12-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 28.3% | 30-14 |
| 1961-12-10 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 54.9% | 28-24 |
| 1961-12-10 | Houston OilersatNew York Titans | 34.9% | 48-21 |
| 1961-12-10 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 85.0% | 7-13 |
| 1961-12-10 | Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers | 36.8% | 21-22 |
| 1961-12-16 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers | 62.7% | 27-24 |
| 1961-12-17 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 84.1% | 35-52 |
| 1961-12-17 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 71.0% | 7-7 |
| 1961-12-17 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Cardinals | 53.5% | 0-20 |
| 1961-12-17 | Boston PatriotsatSan Diego Chargersshock | 78.0% | 41-0 |
| 1961-12-17 | New York TitansatDallas Texans | 57.5% | 24-35 |
| 1961-12-17 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins | 52.4% | 24-34 |
| 1961-12-17 | Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions | 51.9% | 27-24 |
| 1961-12-17 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 24.8% | 24-17 |
| 1961-12-17 | Houston OilersatOakland Raiders | 14.6% | 47-16 |
| 1961-12-24 | Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers | 47.7% | 10-3 |
| 1961-12-31 | New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers | 61.5% | 0-37 |
| 1962-01-06 | Philadelphia EaglesvsDetroit Lions | 42.3% | 10-28 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.