The expectation ledger
The 1958 season, against expectation
Every game of 1958scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
74
Model Brier
0.1937
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
24.6%
Chicago Cardinals
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1958.
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1958 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1958-09-28 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 46.8% | 34-20 |
| 1958-09-28 | Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams | 53.3% | 30-27 |
| 1958-09-28 | New York GiantsatChicago Cardinals | 45.3% | 37-7 |
| 1958-09-28 | Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts | 48.6% | 15-28 |
| 1958-09-28 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 48.0% | 24-14 |
| 1958-09-28 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers | 61.3% | 20-23 |
| 1958-10-04 | Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts | 61.7% | 38-51 |
| 1958-10-04 | Washington RedskinsatChicago Cardinals | 37.9% | 10-37 |
| 1958-10-05 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 47.5% | 45-12 |
| 1958-10-05 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 40.4% | 24-27 |
| 1958-10-05 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 34.6% | 13-13 |
| 1958-10-05 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 62.8% | 33-3 |
| 1958-10-12 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 63.0% | 6-28 |
| 1958-10-12 | Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 79.5% | 28-35 |
| 1958-10-12 | Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 35.3% | 24-17 |
| 1958-10-12 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 54.5% | 21-14 |
| 1958-10-12 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 62.2% | 3-24 |
| 1958-10-12 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 61.5% | 42-28 |
| 1958-10-19 | San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 52.8% | 30-24 |
| 1958-10-19 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears | 52.3% | 10-31 |
| 1958-10-19 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 75.9% | 10-27 |
| 1958-10-19 | Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giantsshock | 75.4% | 23-6 |
| 1958-10-19 | Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions | 51.8% | 40-14 |
| 1958-10-19 | Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins | 71.6% | 21-37 |
| 1958-10-26 | Cleveland BrownsatChicago Cardinals | 37.9% | 38-24 |
| 1958-10-26 | Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts | 74.6% | 10-35 |
| 1958-10-26 | Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers | 55.6% | 35-38 |
| 1958-10-26 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 65.0% | 6-17 |
| 1958-10-26 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Ramsshock | 67.0% | 41-24 |
| 1958-10-26 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 47.7% | 27-14 |
| 1958-11-02 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 48.4% | 35-41 |
| 1958-11-02 | New York GiantsatCleveland Brownsshock | 74.4% | 21-17 |
| 1958-11-02 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals | 69.2% | 21-21 |
| 1958-11-02 | Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts | 86.0% | 0-56 |
| 1958-11-02 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 55.4% | 16-24 |
| 1958-11-02 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 47.9% | 21-24 |
| 1958-11-09 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 67.3% | 7-56 |
| 1958-11-09 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 81.8% | 10-24 |
| 1958-11-09 | Detroit LionsatCleveland Brownsshock | 72.2% | 30-10 |
| 1958-11-09 | Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 60.3% | 31-45 |
| 1958-11-09 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Giants | 46.8% | 21-24 |
| 1958-11-09 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 47.4% | 31-24 |
| 1958-11-16 | San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions | 74.6% | 21-35 |
| 1958-11-16 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears | 52.1% | 17-0 |
| 1958-11-16 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 45.9% | 20-10 |
| 1958-11-16 | Chicago CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 50.3% | 21-49 |
| 1958-11-16 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 48.1% | 10-31 |
| 1958-11-16 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 32.3% | 20-7 |
| 1958-11-23 | San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers | 46.7% | 33-12 |
| 1958-11-23 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 64.1% | 20-7 |
| 1958-11-23 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 81.6% | 14-28 |
| 1958-11-23 | Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Cardinals | 41.4% | 27-20 |
| 1958-11-23 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts | 70.3% | 7-34 |
| 1958-11-23 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 69.5% | 0-30 |
| 1958-11-27 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 84.4% | 14-24 |
| 1958-11-30 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts | 83.2% | 27-35 |
| 1958-11-30 | Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Steelers | 53.4% | 10-24 |
| 1958-11-30 | Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns | 79.0% | 14-21 |
| 1958-11-30 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Cardinals | 35.0% | 20-14 |
| 1958-11-30 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 78.8% | 10-24 |
| 1958-12-06 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams | 42.8% | 28-30 |
| 1958-12-07 | Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears | 81.1% | 14-30 |
| 1958-12-07 | Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 27.9% | 21-14 |
| 1958-12-07 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 40.3% | 14-14 |
| 1958-12-07 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 57.3% | 19-17 |
| 1958-12-07 | Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers | 77.0% | 21-48 |
| 1958-12-13 | Chicago CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 82.4% | 21-38 |
| 1958-12-14 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 62.8% | 16-21 |
| 1958-12-14 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 53.0% | 10-13 |
| 1958-12-14 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 67.5% | 0-20 |
| 1958-12-14 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 88.1% | 20-34 |
| 1958-12-14 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 31.6% | 12-21 |
| 1958-12-21 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 56.7% | 0-10 |
| 1958-12-28 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Giants | 56.1% | 23-17 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.