The expectation ledger

The 1954 season, against expectation

Every game of 1954scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19531955→
Games
73
Model Brier
0.1941
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.0%
Baltimore Colts

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1954.

1
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 5.11
2
Detroit Lions
Detroit
9.5
exp 8.17
3
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
9
exp 8.18
4
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
7.5
exp 7.00
5
New York Giants
New York
7
exp 6.67
6
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
3
exp 3.09
7
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
7.5
exp 7.74
8
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
4
exp 4.58
9
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
6.5
exp 7.38
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
5
exp 6.00
11
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
2
exp 3.47
12
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
3
exp 4.61

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1954 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1954-09-26Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions81.7%23-48
1954-09-26Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.6%10-28
1954-09-26New York GiantsatChicago Cardinals49.8%41-10
1954-09-26Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts26.1%48-0
1954-09-26Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers49.1%21-20
1954-09-26Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers70.0%7-41
1954-10-02New York GiantsatBaltimore Colts36.1%14-20
1954-10-02Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers60.6%7-37
1954-10-03San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams61.2%24-24
1954-10-03Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers58.2%10-3
1954-10-03Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals28.5%35-16
1954-10-09Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles70.5%22-24
1954-10-10San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers28.4%23-17
1954-10-10Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bears69.5%9-28
1954-10-10Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Browns85.5%7-31
1954-10-10New York GiantsatWashington Redskins56.8%51-21
1954-10-10Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions61.3%3-21
1954-10-16Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions89.6%0-35
1954-10-17San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears36.5%31-24
1954-10-17Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers46.8%27-55
1954-10-17Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants79.8%17-31
1954-10-17Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins32.1%49-21
1954-10-17Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers29.0%17-35
1954-10-23Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers47.4%7-17
1954-10-24Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams72.8%38-42
1954-10-24Cleveland BrownsatChicago Cardinals27.5%35-3
1954-10-24Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts47.9%7-6
1954-10-24Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants75.2%7-24
1954-10-24Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers55.6%31-37
1954-10-30Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock80.5%37-14
1954-10-31New York GiantsatCleveland Browns65.3%14-24
1954-10-31Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Cardinalsshock24.4%14-17
1954-10-31Baltimore ColtsatWashington Redskins66.1%21-24
1954-10-31Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams47.1%27-24
1954-10-31Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ersshock83.4%31-27
1954-11-06Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts17.6%27-3
1954-11-07Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears56.9%23-28
1954-11-07Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns82.6%3-62
1954-11-07Chicago CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles83.2%14-30
1954-11-07New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers63.4%30-6
1954-11-07Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers69.2%42-34
1954-11-13Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers78.0%13-24
1954-11-14San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions69.5%7-48
1954-11-14Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears40.8%39-10
1954-11-14Chicago CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams85.9%17-28
1954-11-14Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins40.8%14-17
1954-11-14Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants60.1%14-27
1954-11-20San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers48.7%31-3
1954-11-21Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts37.9%28-13
1954-11-21Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns72.2%0-6
1954-11-21Washington RedskinsatChicago Cardinals48.6%16-38
1954-11-21Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants59.4%17-16
1954-11-21Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers30.3%21-17
1954-11-25Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions84.4%24-28
1954-11-28San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Coltsshock19.1%13-17
1954-11-28Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears42.5%13-24
1954-11-28Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants49.0%16-7
1954-11-28Chicago CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers72.8%17-20
1954-11-28Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles78.8%33-41
1954-12-04Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Ramsshock86.0%22-21
1954-12-05Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals37.1%29-7
1954-12-05Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins19.2%34-14
1954-12-05Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions79.0%13-13
1954-12-05Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants70.5%3-24
1954-12-05Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers72.7%0-35
1954-12-11Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers86.8%7-10
1954-12-12Detroit LionsatChicago Bears35.8%24-28
1954-12-12Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns84.6%7-42
1954-12-12Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins62.1%20-37
1954-12-12New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles55.6%14-29
1954-12-12Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams72.4%27-35
1954-12-19Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns62.0%14-10
1954-12-26Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns56.2%10-56

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.