The expectation ledger

The 1953 season, against expectation

Every game of 1953scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19521954→
Games
73
Model Brier
0.1749
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
23.8%
San Francisco 49ers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1953.

1
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
11
exp 8.76
2
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
9
exp 6.88
3
Detroit Lions
Detroit
10
exp 8.40
4
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
7.5
exp 6.72
5
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6.5
exp 5.93
6
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
3
exp 2.76
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
6
exp 5.81
8
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
8.5
exp 8.73
9
Chicago Bears
Chicago
3.5
exp 4.82
10
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
2.5
exp 4.44
11
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
1.5
exp 3.60
12
New York Giants
New York
3
exp 5.14

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1953 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1953-09-27Chicago BearsatBaltimore Colts38.8%9-13
1953-09-27Cleveland BrownsatGreen Bay Packers43.6%27-0
1953-09-27Washington RedskinsatChicago Cardinals57.1%24-13
1953-09-27New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams69.0%7-21
1953-09-27Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions72.5%21-38
1953-09-27Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers60.8%21-31
1953-10-02Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles59.1%21-21
1953-10-03Detroit LionsatBaltimore Colts18.8%27-17
1953-10-03New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers57.9%14-24
1953-10-04Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers61.6%17-13
1953-10-04Cleveland BrownsatChicago Cardinals33.3%27-7
1953-10-04Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers47.9%30-31
1953-10-10Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns76.0%13-37
1953-10-11San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions71.9%21-24
1953-10-11Baltimore ColtsatChicago Bearsshock75.7%16-14
1953-10-11Chicago CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers74.8%28-31
1953-10-11New York GiantsatWashington Redskins59.5%9-13
1953-10-11Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers32.2%38-20
1953-10-17Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles51.4%7-23
1953-10-18San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears42.8%35-28
1953-10-18Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins40.7%30-14
1953-10-18Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants70.7%7-21
1953-10-18Baltimore ColtsatGreen Bay Packers68.8%14-37
1953-10-18Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions62.3%31-19
1953-10-24Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers70.2%14-31
1953-10-25Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams86.4%24-38
1953-10-25Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants36.0%7-0
1953-10-25Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals41.7%56-17
1953-10-25Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Colts34.5%17-27
1953-10-25Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers50.4%14-10
1953-10-31Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Colts50.7%35-24
1953-11-01Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns84.0%3-27
1953-11-01New York GiantsatChicago Cardinals40.3%23-20
1953-11-01Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers57.4%35-7
1953-11-01Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams63.9%24-37
1953-11-01Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers76.6%14-24
1953-11-07Baltimore ColtsatDetroit Lions89.1%7-17
1953-11-08San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Ramsshock76.2%31-27
1953-11-08Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears53.8%21-21
1953-11-08Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns82.5%16-34
1953-11-08Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins72.8%17-28
1953-11-08New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.6%7-30
1953-11-15San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns73.9%21-23
1953-11-15Chicago BearsatWashington Redskinsshock68.2%27-24
1953-11-15Los Angeles RamsatChicago Cardinals17.4%24-24
1953-11-15Baltimore ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles87.8%14-45
1953-11-15Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants59.9%14-10
1953-11-15Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers32.4%14-7
1953-11-21Chicago CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles86.8%0-38
1953-11-22San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers37.1%37-7
1953-11-22Detroit LionsatChicago Bears28.4%20-16
1953-11-22Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers30.4%20-16
1953-11-22Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Colts16.6%21-13
1953-11-22Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants61.8%24-21
1953-11-26Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions86.0%15-34
1953-11-29San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts20.7%38-21
1953-11-29Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bearsshock24.9%21-24
1953-11-29Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Browns92.9%16-27
1953-11-29Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers62.9%17-9
1953-11-29Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants35.5%28-37
1953-12-05Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Rams91.4%2-45
1953-12-06Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions84.3%7-13
1953-12-06New York GiantsatCleveland Browns85.5%14-62
1953-12-06Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Cardinals41.0%21-17
1953-12-06Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins46.2%0-10
1953-12-06Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers84.0%14-48
1953-12-12Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams87.0%17-33
1953-12-13Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bearsshock72.8%24-17
1953-12-13Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles35.0%27-42
1953-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins65.2%14-13
1953-12-13Detroit LionsatNew York Giants31.8%27-16
1953-12-13Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers90.9%14-45
1953-12-27Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions57.5%16-17

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.