The expectation ledger

The 1951 season, against expectation

Every game of 1951scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19501952→
Games
73
Model Brier
0.2127
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
22.2%
Washington Redskins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1951.

1
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
11
exp 8.62
2
New York Giants
New York
9.5
exp 7.62
3
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
7.5
exp 5.75
4
Detroit Lions
Detroit
7.5
exp 6.53
5
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
5
exp 4.28
6
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
8
exp 8.01
7
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
3
exp 3.55
8
Chicago Bears
Chicago
7
exp 7.65
9
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
4.5
exp 5.40
10
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
3
exp 4.53
11
New York Yanks
New York
2
exp 3.80
12
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
4
exp 6.26

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1951 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1951-09-28New York YanksatLos Angeles Rams76.9%14-54
1951-09-30Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers29.2%31-20
1951-09-30Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals47.9%17-14
1951-09-30Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions66.0%17-35
1951-09-30Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers30.8%10-24
1951-10-01New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers51.1%13-13
1951-10-06San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles72.4%14-21
1951-10-07Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals44.4%14-28
1951-10-07Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams58.2%38-23
1951-10-07New York GiantsatWashington Redskins37.8%35-14
1951-10-07Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers36.6%33-35
1951-10-08New York YanksatDetroit Lions68.2%10-37
1951-10-14San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers60.8%28-24
1951-10-14New York YanksatChicago Bears77.2%21-24
1951-10-14Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns86.6%0-45
1951-10-14Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants68.4%17-28
1951-10-14Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packersshock26.3%24-37
1951-10-14Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions51.5%27-21
1951-10-21San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears68.0%7-13
1951-10-21Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns81.0%0-17
1951-10-21Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins41.9%3-7
1951-10-21Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants64.7%24-26
1951-10-21New York YanksatDetroit Lions71.3%24-24
1951-10-21Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers32.3%28-0
1951-10-28Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions47.4%28-23
1951-10-28New York GiantsatCleveland Browns67.2%13-14
1951-10-28Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Cardinals62.3%28-14
1951-10-28Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock77.8%27-23
1951-10-28Green Bay PackersatNew York Yanks63.7%29-27
1951-10-28Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers41.0%17-44
1951-11-04San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams65.6%16-23
1951-11-04Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins35.8%27-0
1951-11-04Cleveland BrownsatChicago Cardinals28.6%34-17
1951-11-04Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers55.1%34-13
1951-11-04New York YanksatNew York Giants82.5%31-37
1951-11-04Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers47.6%24-17
1951-11-11Detroit LionsatChicago Bearsshock74.4%41-28
1951-11-11Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns75.2%17-20
1951-11-11Chicago CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams78.2%21-45
1951-11-11Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants82.6%14-28
1951-11-11Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers70.4%7-28
1951-11-11New York YanksatSan Francisco 49ers74.5%14-19
1951-11-18Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears83.4%13-24
1951-11-18Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants48.5%10-0
1951-11-18Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers70.0%22-7
1951-11-18Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.2%28-10
1951-11-18New York YanksatLos Angeles Rams83.5%21-48
1951-11-18Chicago CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ersshock72.5%27-21
1951-11-22Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions84.2%35-52
1951-11-25San Francisco 49ersatNew York Yanks42.5%10-10
1951-11-25Chicago BearsatCleveland Browns76.0%21-42
1951-11-25New York GiantsatChicago Cardinals38.7%10-0
1951-11-25Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskins34.9%21-31
1951-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles69.7%17-13
1951-12-02San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions71.5%20-10
1951-12-02Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears57.7%42-17
1951-12-02Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Browns89.0%28-49
1951-12-02Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins56.2%35-21
1951-12-02Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants77.8%0-14
1951-12-02New York YanksatGreen Bay Packers54.5%31-28
1951-12-09Chicago BearsatNew York Yanks39.8%45-21
1951-12-09Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers21.8%28-0
1951-12-09Washington RedskinsatChicago Cardinals57.4%20-17
1951-12-09New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles44.9%23-7
1951-12-09Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams68.4%24-22
1951-12-09Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers82.1%19-31
1951-12-16Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bearsshock76.9%24-14
1951-12-16Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles25.5%24-9
1951-12-16Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins61.9%20-10
1951-12-16New York GiantsatNew York Yanks22.4%27-17
1951-12-16Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams88.0%14-42
1951-12-16Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers55.2%17-21
1951-12-23Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams37.4%17-24

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.