The expectation ledger

The 1949 season, against expectation

Every game of 1949scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19481950→
Games
106
Model Brier
0.1666
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
12.6%
New York Bulldogs

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1949.

1
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
11
exp 8.66
2
Brk/New York Yankees
New York
8
exp 6.25
3
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
9
exp 7.82
4
Chicago Bears
Chicago
9
exp 8.09
5
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
10
exp 9.25
6
Chicago Hornets
Chicago
4
exp 3.27
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
6.5
exp 5.83
8
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
9
exp 8.34
9
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 5.59
10
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
6
exp 5.76
11
Detroit Lions
Detroit
4
exp 4.26
12
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
6.5
exp 7.36
Show all 17 rows
13
New York Bulldogs
New York
1.5
exp 2.63
14
Los Angeles Dons
Los Angeles
4
exp 5.25
15
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
4.5
exp 5.83
16
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
2
exp 3.93
17
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
1
exp 3.88

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1949 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1949-08-26Buffalo BillsatChicago Hornets30.6%14-17
1949-08-28Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers79.0%17-31
1949-09-02Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Dons61.4%17-49
1949-09-04Chicago HornetsatSan Francisco 49ers89.9%7-42
1949-09-05Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills30.6%28-28
1949-09-09Chicago HornetsatLos Angeles Donsshock80.2%23-21
1949-09-11Brk/New York YankeesatBuffalo Bills62.0%17-14
1949-09-11Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns86.9%0-21
1949-09-16Baltimore ColtsatChicago Hornets47.4%7-35
1949-09-18Brk/New York YankeesatCleveland Browns82.5%3-14
1949-09-18Los Angeles DonsatSan Francisco 49ers79.4%14-42
1949-09-22Los Angeles DonsatBrk/New York Yankees62.4%7-10
1949-09-22Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Bulldogs20.3%7-0
1949-09-23Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams78.1%24-27
1949-09-25San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills34.1%17-28
1949-09-25Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers28.7%17-0
1949-09-25Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Colts17.4%28-20
1949-09-25New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers62.3%7-28
1949-09-26Washington RedskinsatChicago Cardinals75.3%7-38
1949-09-30San Francisco 49ersatChicago Hornets27.3%42-24
1949-09-30New York GiantsatNew York Bulldogs42.4%38-14
1949-10-02Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals58.1%17-7
1949-10-02Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Billsshock77.5%35-28
1949-10-02Los Angeles DonsatCleveland Browns86.7%7-42
1949-10-02Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers37.3%48-7
1949-10-03Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers58.6%27-14
1949-10-03Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions28.4%22-14
1949-10-07Brk/New York YankeesatChicago Hornets41.7%38-24
1949-10-07Green Bay PackersatNew York Bulldogs44.4%19-0
1949-10-08Chicago CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.4%3-28
1949-10-08Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers68.8%7-14
1949-10-09Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears72.2%31-16
1949-10-09Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Dons54.7%28-42
1949-10-09New York GiantsatWashington Redskins69.3%45-35
1949-10-09Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers47.4%28-56
1949-10-14Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Dons29.5%61-14
1949-10-16Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears57.7%21-38
1949-10-16Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers32.4%39-17
1949-10-16Brk/New York YankeesatBaltimore Colts42.2%24-21
1949-10-16New York BulldogsatWashington Redskins85.2%14-38
1949-10-16Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants61.3%21-17
1949-10-16Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions24.5%21-10
1949-10-16Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers83.9%7-51
1949-10-23San Francisco 49ersatBrk/New York Yankees37.3%3-24
1949-10-23Chicago BearsatNew York Giants30.6%28-35
1949-10-23Los Angeles DonsatBuffalo Bills58.5%14-17
1949-10-23Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinalsshock86.5%24-7
1949-10-23Chicago HornetsatBaltimore Colts64.2%17-7
1949-10-23Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles76.1%14-49
1949-10-23Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams86.4%7-35
1949-10-23New York BulldogsatPittsburgh Steelers85.8%13-24
1949-10-28Los Angeles DonsatChicago Hornets51.7%24-14
1949-10-30San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns67.6%28-30
1949-10-30Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams60.9%24-27
1949-10-30New York GiantsatChicago Cardinals68.0%41-38
1949-10-30Baltimore ColtsatBrk/New York Yankees83.4%14-21
1949-10-30Washington RedskinsatNew York Bulldogs26.1%14-14
1949-10-30Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers37.4%38-7
1949-10-30Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers53.6%14-16
1949-11-06San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts21.6%28-10
1949-11-06Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears85.2%3-24
1949-11-06Buffalo BillsatBrk/New York Yankeesshock74.7%17-14
1949-11-06Chicago HornetsatCleveland Browns91.8%2-35
1949-11-06Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions40.6%42-19
1949-11-06Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins59.8%14-27
1949-11-06Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.0%14-38
1949-11-06New York BulldogsatNew York Giantsshock87.4%31-24
1949-11-13San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Dons33.0%41-24
1949-11-13Detroit LionsatChicago Bears86.2%24-27
1949-11-13Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns85.5%7-7
1949-11-13Chicago CardinalsatNew York Bulldogs22.6%65-20
1949-11-13Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins31.0%44-21
1949-11-13New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers46.5%30-10
1949-11-13Chicago HornetsatBrk/New York Yankees82.1%10-14
1949-11-13Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers33.0%7-7
1949-11-20Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins36.1%31-21
1949-11-20Chicago HornetsatBuffalo Bills76.3%0-10
1949-11-20Cleveland BrownsatBrk/New York Yankees38.2%31-0
1949-11-20Los Angeles RamsatChicago Cardinals51.9%28-28
1949-11-20Los Angeles DonsatBaltimore Colts44.2%21-10
1949-11-20New York BulldogsatPhiladelphia Eagles95.0%0-42
1949-11-20Detroit LionsatNew York Giants74.2%45-21
1949-11-20Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers44.8%30-7
1949-11-24Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions28.6%28-7
1949-11-24Cleveland BrownsatChicago Hornets13.0%14-6
1949-11-24Brk/New York YankeesatLos Angeles Dons49.5%17-16
1949-11-27Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts33.9%38-14
1949-11-27Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals86.3%21-41
1949-11-27Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants57.4%7-23
1949-11-27Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles85.1%17-34
1949-11-27New York BulldogsatLos Angeles Rams92.3%20-42
1949-11-27Brk/New York YankeesatSan Francisco 49ers75.1%14-35
1949-12-04Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears82.0%21-30
1949-12-04Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns83.6%21-31
1949-12-04Chicago CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams65.9%31-27
1949-12-04Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins74.2%0-30
1949-12-04Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants24.8%24-3
1949-12-04New York BulldogsatDetroit Lions77.8%27-28
1949-12-04Brk/New York YankeesatSan Francisco 49ers78.0%7-17
1949-12-11San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns66.2%7-21
1949-12-11Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears68.6%21-52
1949-12-11Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams78.7%27-53
1949-12-11New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles88.3%3-17
1949-12-11Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions74.1%7-21
1949-12-11Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Bulldogs30.6%27-0
1949-12-18Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams42.1%14-0

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.