The expectation ledger

The 1948 season, against expectation

Every game of 1948scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19471949→
Games
119
Model Brier
0.1562
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.9%
Boston Yanks

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1948.

1
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
14
exp 11.12
2
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
11
exp 8.14
3
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
12
exp 9.85
4
Chicago Bears
Chicago
10
exp 8.46
5
Baltimore Colts
Washington-Baltimore
7
exp 5.56
6
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
9.5
exp 8.12
7
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
7
exp 5.97
8
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
6.5
exp 5.94
9
Los Angeles Dons
Los Angeles
7
exp 6.84
10
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
7
exp 7.35
11
Boston Yanks
Boston
3
exp 3.60
12
New York Giants
New York
4
exp 4.78
Show all 18 rows
13
Detroit Lions
Detroit
2
exp 3.22
14
New York Yankees
New York
6
exp 7.58
15
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
4
exp 5.68
16
Brooklyn Dodgers
New York
2
exp 4.11
17
Chicago Rockets
Chicago
1
exp 3.59
18
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
3
exp 6.09

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1948 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1948-08-27New York YankeesatBrooklyn Dodgers30.7%21-3
1948-08-27Los Angeles DonsatChicago Rockets39.9%7-0
1948-08-29Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers66.7%14-35
1948-09-03Los Angeles DonsatCleveland Browns78.7%14-19
1948-09-05New York YankeesatBaltimore Coltsshock26.4%28-45
1948-09-05Brooklyn DodgersatSan Francisco 49ers83.1%20-36
1948-09-06Chicago RocketsatBuffalo Bills77.1%7-42
1948-09-10Baltimore ColtsatChicago Rockets46.9%14-21
1948-09-10Brooklyn DodgersatLos Angeles Dons76.7%7-17
1948-09-12Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills34.5%42-13
1948-09-12New York YankeesatSan Francisco 49ers62.9%0-41
1948-09-16Baltimore ColtsatNew York Yankeesshock77.1%27-14
1948-09-17Cleveland BrownsatChicago Rockets16.1%28-7
1948-09-17Green Bay PackersatBoston Yanks43.0%31-0
1948-09-19Los Angeles DonsatSan Francisco 49ers72.6%14-36
1948-09-22Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams72.7%7-44
1948-09-23New York GiantsatBoston Yanks56.1%27-7
1948-09-24Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals63.3%14-21
1948-09-26San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills37.6%38-28
1948-09-26Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers58.7%45-7
1948-09-26Chicago RocketsatCleveland Browns92.4%10-21
1948-09-26Brooklyn DodgersatBaltimore Colts70.3%20-35
1948-09-26Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins53.7%14-17
1948-09-29New York YankeesatLos Angeles Dons59.9%10-20
1948-10-01San Francisco 49ersatChicago Rockets19.3%31-14
1948-10-03Brooklyn DodgersatBuffalo Bills75.1%21-31
1948-10-03New York GiantsatWashington Redskins59.7%10-41
1948-10-03Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams57.9%28-28
1948-10-03Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers76.8%21-33
1948-10-03Boston YanksatPittsburgh Steelers73.2%14-24
1948-10-04Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals55.8%28-17
1948-10-05Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Colts24.4%14-10
1948-10-08Chicago RocketsatLos Angeles Dons81.2%28-49
1948-10-09Boston YanksatDetroit Lions62.1%17-14
1948-10-10San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts29.5%56-14
1948-10-10Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears74.8%21-42
1948-10-10New York YankeesatBuffalo Bills59.3%14-13
1948-10-10Brooklyn DodgersatCleveland Browns93.4%17-30
1948-10-10Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers55.3%17-7
1948-10-10Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers59.1%7-10
1948-10-10New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.2%0-45
1948-10-15Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Donsshock72.4%29-14
1948-10-15Chicago RocketsatBrooklyn Dodgers60.0%7-21
1948-10-17San Francisco 49ersatNew York Yankees31.6%21-7
1948-10-17Detroit LionsatChicago Bears89.5%0-28
1948-10-17Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns86.5%14-31
1948-10-17Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants33.6%63-35
1948-10-17Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins47.6%45-0
1948-10-17Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers59.5%0-16
1948-10-17Pittsburgh SteelersatBoston Yanks41.3%7-13
1948-10-24Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles48.6%7-12
1948-10-24Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Dons62.6%35-21
1948-10-24New York YankeesatCleveland Browns86.9%7-35
1948-10-24Boston YanksatChicago Cardinals83.9%27-49
1948-10-24Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packersshock71.5%23-7
1948-10-24Brooklyn DodgersatChicago Rockets52.5%35-14
1948-10-24Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants47.2%27-34
1948-10-24Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions39.7%34-27
1948-10-24Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers84.6%10-21
1948-10-31New York GiantsatChicago Bears85.2%14-35
1948-10-31Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills63.8%17-35
1948-10-31Chicago CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams42.1%27-22
1948-10-31Boston YanksatWashington Redskins71.9%21-59
1948-10-31Los Angeles DonsatBrooklyn Dodgers49.0%17-0
1948-10-31Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers36.5%34-7
1948-10-31Chicago RocketsatNew York Yankees81.8%7-42
1948-10-31Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions37.1%20-24
1948-11-07Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams35.4%21-6
1948-11-07Buffalo BillsatBrooklyn Dodgers35.8%26-21
1948-11-07Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns89.0%7-28
1948-11-07Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinals88.2%20-56
1948-11-07Washington RedskinsatBoston Yanks39.9%23-7
1948-11-07Los Angeles DonsatNew York Yankees58.5%6-38
1948-11-07Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants27.6%35-14
1948-11-07Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers53.4%7-38
1948-11-07Chicago RocketsatSan Francisco 49ers95.2%21-44
1948-11-14San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns64.2%7-14
1948-11-14Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears85.3%6-7
1948-11-14Los Angeles DonsatBuffalo Bills69.6%27-20
1948-11-14Chicago CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers33.2%24-7
1948-11-14Chicago RocketsatBaltimore Colts80.9%24-38
1948-11-14Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins80.1%21-46
1948-11-14Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Yankees78.8%7-21
1948-11-14Boston YanksatPhiladelphia Eagles89.5%0-45
1948-11-14Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants47.4%52-37
1948-11-21San Francisco 49ersatBrooklyn Dodgers14.9%63-40
1948-11-21Chicago BearsatBoston Yanks16.9%51-17
1948-11-21Cleveland BrownsatNew York Yankees25.8%34-21
1948-11-21Los Angeles RamsatChicago Cardinals79.3%24-27
1948-11-21Los Angeles DonsatBaltimore Colts54.3%17-14
1948-11-21Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles74.6%21-42
1948-11-21New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers69.0%49-3
1948-11-21Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions44.2%14-17
1948-11-25Buffalo BillsatChicago Rockets25.0%39-35
1948-11-25Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Dons22.9%31-14
1948-11-25Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions18.9%28-14
1948-11-28Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears79.3%13-48
1948-11-28Buffalo BillsatNew York Yankees58.3%35-14
1948-11-28Baltimore ColtsatBrooklyn Dodgers43.3%38-20
1948-11-28Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles85.8%0-17
1948-11-28Boston YanksatNew York Giants71.1%14-28
1948-11-28Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams73.5%10-24
1948-11-28Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers47.6%31-28
1948-12-04New York YankeesatChicago Rockets28.2%28-7
1948-12-05San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Dons30.8%38-21
1948-12-05Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions15.4%42-14
1948-12-05Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts46.9%15-35
1948-12-05Cleveland BrownsatBrooklyn Dodgers7.4%31-21
1948-12-05Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals89.8%7-42
1948-12-05Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskins59.8%41-13
1948-12-05Philadelphia EaglesatBoston Yanksshock14.9%14-37
1948-12-05New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers57.3%28-38
1948-12-12Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears62.9%24-21
1948-12-12Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts56.2%28-17
1948-12-12Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants51.6%28-21
1948-12-12Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles88.2%21-45
1948-12-12Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams73.0%14-31
1948-12-19Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns86.8%7-49
1948-12-19Chicago CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles47.9%0-7

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.