The expectation ledger
The 1947 season, against expectation
Every game of 1947scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
119
Model Brier
0.1783
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
17.3%
Los Angeles Dons
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1947.
Show all 18 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1947 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1947-08-29 | Los Angeles DonsatChicago Rockets | 55.8% | 24-21 |
| 1947-08-31 | New York YankeesatBuffalo Bills | 41.6% | 24-28 |
| 1947-08-31 | Brooklyn DodgersatSan Francisco 49ers | 79.5% | 7-23 |
| 1947-09-05 | Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns | 80.3% | 14-30 |
| 1947-09-05 | Chicago RocketsatNew York Yankees | 67.9% | 26-48 |
| 1947-09-07 | Brooklyn DodgersatBaltimore Colts | 63.5% | 7-16 |
| 1947-09-07 | Los Angeles DonsatSan Francisco 49ers | 67.9% | 14-17 |
| 1947-09-12 | Cleveland BrownsatBrooklyn Dodgers | 25.2% | 55-7 |
| 1947-09-12 | New York YankeesatLos Angeles Dons | 54.1% | 30-14 |
| 1947-09-14 | Chicago RocketsatBuffalo Bills | 57.6% | 20-28 |
| 1947-09-14 | Baltimore ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers | 77.8% | 7-14 |
| 1947-09-19 | Buffalo BillsatChicago Rockets | 55.7% | 31-14 |
| 1947-09-19 | Brooklyn DodgersatLos Angeles Dons | 74.4% | 21-48 |
| 1947-09-21 | Baltimore ColtsatCleveland Browns | 83.5% | 0-28 |
| 1947-09-21 | Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers | 68.2% | 10-17 |
| 1947-09-21 | New York YankeesatSan Francisco 49ers | 62.4% | 21-16 |
| 1947-09-26 | Cleveland BrownsatChicago Rockets | 23.9% | 41-21 |
| 1947-09-28 | San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills | 45.8% | 41-24 |
| 1947-09-28 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 52.5% | 20-29 |
| 1947-09-28 | Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinals | 76.8% | 21-45 |
| 1947-09-28 | New York YankeesatBaltimore Colts | 34.1% | 21-7 |
| 1947-09-28 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 62.6% | 42-45 |
| 1947-09-29 | New York GiantsatBoston Yanks | 43.2% | 7-7 |
| 1947-09-29 | Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers | 48.1% | 48-7 |
| 1947-10-03 | Brooklyn DodgersatChicago Rockets | 64.2% | 35-31 |
| 1947-10-05 | San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Colts | 31.6% | 28-28 |
| 1947-10-05 | Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals | 55.7% | 7-31 |
| 1947-10-05 | Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Dons | 64.4% | 27-25 |
| 1947-10-05 | New York YankeesatCleveland Browns | 66.4% | 17-26 |
| 1947-10-05 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 67.6% | 26-27 |
| 1947-10-05 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 56.7% | 23-0 |
| 1947-10-05 | Detroit LionsatBoston Yanks | 66.1% | 21-7 |
| 1947-10-05 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 55.3% | 14-17 |
| 1947-10-12 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears | 54.5% | 7-40 |
| 1947-10-12 | Baltimore ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 67.5% | 15-20 |
| 1947-10-12 | Los Angeles DonsatCleveland Brownsshock | 82.7% | 13-10 |
| 1947-10-12 | Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers | 60.0% | 14-10 |
| 1947-10-12 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 59.4% | 20-28 |
| 1947-10-12 | Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Yankees | 85.2% | 7-31 |
| 1947-10-12 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 35.4% | 27-13 |
| 1947-10-12 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBoston Yanks | 51.8% | 30-14 |
| 1947-10-12 | Chicago RocketsatSan Francisco 49ers | 85.3% | 28-42 |
| 1947-10-17 | Buffalo BillsatBrooklyn Dodgers | 41.2% | 14-14 |
| 1947-10-19 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 80.3% | 24-33 |
| 1947-10-19 | Chicago RocketsatCleveland Browns | 89.6% | 28-31 |
| 1947-10-19 | Chicago CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.3% | 7-27 |
| 1947-10-19 | Los Angeles DonsatBaltimore Colts | 43.9% | 38-10 |
| 1947-10-19 | Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers | 63.2% | 10-27 |
| 1947-10-19 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 48.7% | 24-35 |
| 1947-10-19 | Boston YanksatNew York Giantsshock | 76.0% | 14-0 |
| 1947-10-24 | New York YankeesatChicago Rockets | 24.1% | 28-7 |
| 1947-10-26 | Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins | 48.9% | 56-20 |
| 1947-10-26 | Brooklyn DodgersatBuffalo Bills | 74.5% | 7-35 |
| 1947-10-26 | Boston YanksatChicago Cardinals | 79.1% | 7-27 |
| 1947-10-26 | Baltimore ColtsatLos Angeles Dons | 79.0% | 0-56 |
| 1947-10-26 | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 44.2% | 7-14 |
| 1947-10-26 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants | 52.5% | 38-21 |
| 1947-10-26 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 81.5% | 17-34 |
| 1947-10-26 | Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers | 51.0% | 14-7 |
| 1947-10-31 | Chicago RocketsatBrooklyn Dodgers | 60.4% | 3-7 |
| 1947-11-02 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Dons | 54.6% | 26-16 |
| 1947-11-02 | Chicago BearsatBoston Yanks | 28.5% | 28-24 |
| 1947-11-02 | Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills | 33.0% | 28-7 |
| 1947-11-02 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Cardinals | 56.6% | 10-17 |
| 1947-11-02 | Baltimore ColtsatNew York Yankees | 87.4% | 21-35 |
| 1947-11-02 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 49.5% | 38-14 |
| 1947-11-02 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 53.4% | 7-35 |
| 1947-11-02 | Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers | 67.5% | 18-17 |
| 1947-11-07 | Baltimore ColtsatChicago Rockets | 55.5% | 21-27 |
| 1947-11-09 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Yankees | 62.2% | 16-24 |
| 1947-11-09 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 65.6% | 17-20 |
| 1947-11-09 | Los Angeles DonsatBuffalo Bills | 52.5% | 0-25 |
| 1947-11-09 | Brooklyn DodgersatCleveland Browns | 91.5% | 12-13 |
| 1947-11-09 | Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions | 32.6% | 17-7 |
| 1947-11-09 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 71.4% | 14-21 |
| 1947-11-09 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 33.1% | 41-24 |
| 1947-11-09 | Boston YanksatLos Angeles Ramsshock | 82.0% | 27-16 |
| 1947-11-16 | San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns | 73.3% | 14-37 |
| 1947-11-16 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 45.2% | 41-21 |
| 1947-11-16 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals | 65.2% | 20-21 |
| 1947-11-16 | Baltimore ColtsatBrooklyn Dodgers | 62.4% | 14-21 |
| 1947-11-16 | Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions | 53.8% | 21-38 |
| 1947-11-16 | Los Angeles DonsatNew York Yankees | 78.0% | 13-16 |
| 1947-11-16 | Boston YanksatPhiladelphia Eagles | 78.7% | 0-32 |
| 1947-11-16 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 80.3% | 7-24 |
| 1947-11-21 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Rockets | 26.8% | 41-16 |
| 1947-11-23 | Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears | 72.6% | 7-49 |
| 1947-11-23 | Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Colts | 32.6% | 33-14 |
| 1947-11-23 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Yankees | 49.7% | 28-28 |
| 1947-11-23 | Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskinsshock | 29.8% | 21-45 |
| 1947-11-23 | Los Angeles DonsatBrooklyn Dodgers | 42.4% | 16-12 |
| 1947-11-23 | Philadelphia EaglesatBoston Yanks | 32.8% | 14-21 |
| 1947-11-23 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants | 30.7% | 24-24 |
| 1947-11-23 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 71.0% | 17-28 |
| 1947-11-27 | San Francisco 49ersatBrooklyn Dodgers | 26.9% | 21-7 |
| 1947-11-27 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 22.9% | 34-14 |
| 1947-11-27 | Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Dons | 29.2% | 27-17 |
| 1947-11-30 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Yankees | 75.2% | 13-35 |
| 1947-11-30 | Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants | 30.8% | 31-35 |
| 1947-11-30 | Chicago RocketsatBaltimore Colts | 55.7% | 7-14 |
| 1947-11-30 | Washington RedskinsatBoston Yanks | 58.3% | 24-27 |
| 1947-11-30 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 64.3% | 0-21 |
| 1947-11-30 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 54.1% | 30-10 |
| 1947-12-07 | Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bearsshock | 82.5% | 17-14 |
| 1947-12-07 | Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Colts | 11.6% | 42-0 |
| 1947-12-07 | Chicago CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 66.1% | 45-21 |
| 1947-12-07 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 51.6% | 10-35 |
| 1947-12-07 | New York YankeesatBrooklyn Dodgers | 18.3% | 20-17 |
| 1947-12-07 | Chicago RocketsatLos Angeles Dons | 80.7% | 14-34 |
| 1947-12-07 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 31.6% | 35-14 |
| 1947-12-07 | Boston YanksatPittsburgh Steelers | 67.3% | 7-17 |
| 1947-12-07 | Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers | 71.7% | 21-21 |
| 1947-12-14 | Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears | 69.3% | 30-21 |
| 1947-12-14 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Yankees | 49.5% | 14-3 |
| 1947-12-14 | Boston YanksatWashington Redskins | 54.7% | 13-40 |
| 1947-12-14 | Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 50.9% | 14-28 |
| 1947-12-14 | New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams | 71.7% | 10-34 |
| 1947-12-21 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 52.7% | 21-0 |
| 1947-12-28 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals | 61.1% | 21-28 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.