The expectation ledger

The 1943 season, against expectation

Every game of 1943scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19421944→
Games
42
Model Brier
0.1452
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
13.9%
Phila-Pit Steagles

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1943.

1
New York Giants
New York
6.5
exp 5.23
2
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
7.5
exp 6.33
3
Phila-Pit Steagles
Phila-Pit
5.5
exp 4.53
4
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8.5
exp 7.60
5
Detroit Lions
Detroit
3.5
exp 3.28
6
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6.5
exp 7.21
7
Brooklyn Dodgers
New York
2
exp 3.14
8
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
0
exp 2.69

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1943 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1943-09-19Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions49.7%17-35
1943-09-26Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers48.5%21-21
1943-09-26Brooklyn DodgersatDetroit Lions54.1%0-27
1943-10-02Brooklyn DodgersatPhila-Pit Steagles64.9%0-17
1943-10-03Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions24.9%27-21
1943-10-03Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals30.9%28-7
1943-10-09New York GiantsatPhila-Pit Steagles52.2%14-28
1943-10-10Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears89.4%0-20
1943-10-10Brooklyn DodgersatWashington Redskins84.7%0-27
1943-10-10Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers82.9%14-35
1943-10-17Phila-Pit SteaglesatChicago Bears82.8%21-48
1943-10-17Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinals55.4%7-0
1943-10-17Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packersshock60.9%33-7
1943-10-17New York GiantsatBrooklyn Dodgers43.1%20-0
1943-10-24Brooklyn DodgersatChicago Bears92.0%21-33
1943-10-24Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins89.6%7-13
1943-10-24Phila-Pit SteaglesatNew York Giants63.9%14-42
1943-10-24Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions36.3%27-6
1943-10-31Detroit LionsatChicago Bears89.1%14-35
1943-10-31Chicago CardinalsatPhila-Pit Steagles72.3%13-34
1943-10-31Washington RedskinsatBrooklyn Dodgers18.4%48-10
1943-10-31Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants47.9%35-21
1943-11-07Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears69.1%7-21
1943-11-07Chicago CardinalsatBrooklyn Dodgers58.6%0-7
1943-11-07Washington RedskinsatPhila-Pit Steagles30.3%14-14
1943-11-07New York GiantsatDetroit Lions44.1%0-0
1943-11-14Chicago BearsatNew York Giants28.6%56-7
1943-11-14Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers89.4%14-35
1943-11-14Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins87.2%20-42
1943-11-14Phila-Pit SteaglesatBrooklyn Dodgersshock41.0%7-13
1943-11-21Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins49.1%7-21
1943-11-21Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants79.7%13-24
1943-11-21Detroit LionsatPhila-Pit Steagles66.6%34-35
1943-11-21Green Bay PackersatBrooklyn Dodgers24.7%31-7
1943-11-28Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals11.5%35-24
1943-11-28Phila-Pit SteaglesatWashington Redskinsshock86.1%27-14
1943-11-28Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Giants76.3%7-24
1943-12-05Washington RedskinsatNew York Giantsshock38.4%10-14
1943-12-05Green Bay PackersatPhila-Pit Steagles40.1%38-28
1943-12-12New York GiantsatWashington Redskinsshock72.8%31-7
1943-12-19Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants58.6%28-0
1943-12-26Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears72.7%21-41

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.