The expectation ledger

The 1944 season, against expectation

Every game of 1944scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19431945→
Games
51
Model Brier
0.1503
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
25.5%
Cleveland Rams

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1944.

1
New York Giants
New York
8.5
exp 6.46
2
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6.5
exp 4.74
3
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
8
exp 6.34
4
Cleveland Rams
Cleveland
4
exp 3.09
5
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
8
exp 7.23
6
Boston Yanks
Boston
2
exp 2.16
7
Chicago Bears
Chicago
6.5
exp 6.94
8
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6.5
exp 6.96
9
Chi/Pitt Carpitts
Chicago/Pittsburgh
0
exp 3.04
10
Brooklyn Tigers
New York
0
exp 3.04

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1944 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1944-09-17Brooklyn TigersatGreen Bay Packers83.2%7-14
1944-09-24Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers52.5%28-42
1944-09-24Cleveland RamsatChi/Pitt Carpittsshock67.4%30-28
1944-09-26Philadelphia EaglesatBoston Yanks31.7%28-7
1944-10-01Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers83.1%6-27
1944-10-08Chicago BearsatCleveland Ramsshock25.5%7-19
1944-10-08Chi/Pitt CarpittsatGreen Bay Packers84.8%7-34
1944-10-08Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.7%31-31
1944-10-08New York GiantsatBoston Yanks25.8%22-10
1944-10-08Brooklyn TigersatDetroit Lions63.3%14-19
1944-10-15Chi/Pitt CarpittsatChicago Bears81.2%7-34
1944-10-15Washington RedskinsatBoston Yanks19.9%21-14
1944-10-15New York GiantsatBrooklyn Tigers36.6%14-7
1944-10-15Cleveland RamsatDetroit Lions59.9%20-17
1944-10-22Detroit LionsatChicago Bears81.4%21-21
1944-10-22Chi/Pitt CarpittsatNew York Giants78.2%0-23
1944-10-22Brooklyn TigersatWashington Redskins83.5%14-17
1944-10-22Boston YanksatPhiladelphia Eagles86.3%0-38
1944-10-22Cleveland RamsatGreen Bay Packers83.3%21-30
1944-10-29Cleveland RamsatChicago Bears78.5%21-28
1944-10-29Chi/Pitt CarpittsatWashington Redskins82.2%20-42
1944-10-29Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants65.2%24-17
1944-10-29Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions26.6%14-0
1944-10-29Boston YanksatBrooklyn Tigersshock73.2%17-14
1944-11-05Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears48.8%0-21
1944-11-05Detroit LionsatChi/Pitt Carpitts53.8%27-6
1944-11-05Cleveland RamsatWashington Redskins78.9%10-14
1944-11-05Philadelphia EaglesatBrooklyn Tigers29.9%21-7
1944-11-05Boston YanksatNew York Giants87.0%0-31
1944-11-12Boston YanksatChicago Bears92.6%7-21
1944-11-12Chi/Pitt CarpittsatDetroit Lions72.8%7-21
1944-11-12Washington RedskinsatBrooklyn Tigers22.6%10-0
1944-11-12New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles62.1%21-21
1944-11-12Green Bay PackersatCleveland Rams28.6%42-7
1944-11-19Chicago BearsatDetroit Lionsshock33.8%21-41
1944-11-19Cleveland RamsatChi/Pitt Carpitts48.0%33-6
1944-11-19Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskinsshock65.8%37-7
1944-11-19Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants42.4%0-24
1944-11-19Brooklyn TigersatBoston Yanks51.9%6-13
1944-11-26Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.8%28-7
1944-11-26Green Bay PackersatChi/Pitt Carpitts17.5%35-20
1944-11-26Boston YanksatWashington Redskins88.1%7-14
1944-11-26Brooklyn TigersatNew York Giants88.8%0-7
1944-11-26Detroit LionsatCleveland Rams50.0%26-14
1944-12-03Chicago BearsatChi/Pitt Carpitts16.1%49-7
1944-12-03Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants62.5%13-16
1944-12-03Brooklyn TigersatPhiladelphia Eagles88.1%0-34
1944-12-03Boston YanksatDetroit Lions86.1%7-38
1944-12-10New York GiantsatWashington Redskins53.1%31-0
1944-12-10Cleveland RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.1%13-26
1944-12-17Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants59.3%14-7

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.