The expectation ledger

The 1940 season, against expectation

Every game of 1940scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19391941→
Games
56
Model Brier
0.1736
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
24.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1940.

1
Brooklyn Dodgers
New York
8
exp 5.42
2
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
9
exp 7.94
3
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 7.04
4
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
3
exp 3.23
5
New York Giants
New York
6.5
exp 6.74
6
Detroit Lions
Detroit
5.5
exp 5.76
7
Cleveland Rams
Cleveland
4.5
exp 4.89
8
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
6.5
exp 7.13
9
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh
3
exp 3.74
10
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
1
exp 3.11

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1940 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1940-09-08Chicago CardinalsatPittsburgh Pirates58.7%7-7
1940-09-15Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinals40.4%0-0
1940-09-15Brooklyn DodgersatWashington Redskins77.2%17-24
1940-09-15Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers85.0%20-27
1940-09-15New York GiantsatPittsburgh Pirates30.3%10-10
1940-09-22Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers65.0%41-10
1940-09-22New York GiantsatWashington Redskins61.0%7-21
1940-09-22Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Rams72.7%13-21
1940-09-22Pittsburgh PiratesatDetroit Lionsshock75.7%10-7
1940-09-25Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinalsshock25.2%7-21
1940-09-28New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles33.9%20-14
1940-09-29Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers78.2%6-31
1940-09-29Cleveland RamsatDetroit Lions57.2%0-6
1940-09-29Brooklyn DodgersatPittsburgh Pirates55.9%10-3
1940-10-04Philadelphia EaglesatBrooklyn Dodgers70.5%17-30
1940-10-05Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions70.7%14-43
1940-10-06Chicago BearsatCleveland Rams43.9%21-14
1940-10-06Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Pirates27.7%40-10
1940-10-13Detroit LionsatChicago Bears70.8%0-7
1940-10-13Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins84.5%21-28
1940-10-13Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants83.8%7-17
1940-10-13Cleveland RamsatGreen Bay Packers75.5%14-31
1940-10-13Pittsburgh PiratesatBrooklyn Dodgers72.5%0-21
1940-10-20Brooklyn DodgersatChicago Bears76.9%7-16
1940-10-20Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Rams67.7%14-26
1940-10-20Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles21.3%34-17
1940-10-20Pittsburgh PiratesatNew York Giants84.6%0-12
1940-10-20Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packersshock72.1%23-14
1940-10-26Brooklyn DodgersatPhiladelphia Eagles39.4%21-7
1940-10-27Chicago BearsatNew York Giants52.1%37-21
1940-10-27Cleveland RamsatChicago Cardinals45.7%7-17
1940-10-27Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions45.4%20-14
1940-10-27Pittsburgh PiratesatGreen Bay Packers85.1%3-24
1940-11-03Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears69.6%7-14
1940-11-03Pittsburgh PiratesatWashington Redskins90.8%10-37
1940-11-03New York GiantsatBrooklyn Dodgers50.4%10-7
1940-11-03Detroit LionsatCleveland Rams47.0%0-24
1940-11-10Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions34.2%14-17
1940-11-10Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals35.4%28-7
1940-11-10Washington RedskinsatBrooklyn Dodgersshock32.7%14-16
1940-11-10Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Pirates61.3%3-7
1940-11-10Cleveland RamsatNew York Giantsshock70.7%13-0
1940-11-17Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins58.7%3-7
1940-11-17Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles29.3%21-0
1940-11-17Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants49.8%3-7
1940-11-17Cleveland RamsatBrooklyn Dodgers55.5%14-29
1940-11-24Cleveland RamsatChicago Bears77.3%25-47
1940-11-24Chicago CardinalsatBrooklyn Dodgers76.0%9-14
1940-11-24Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants42.0%7-21
1940-11-24Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions52.9%50-7
1940-11-28Pittsburgh PiratesatPhiladelphia Eagles51.3%0-7
1940-12-01Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears88.0%23-31
1940-12-01Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins90.7%6-13
1940-12-01Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Giants66.1%14-6
1940-12-01Green Bay PackersatCleveland Rams40.0%13-13
1940-12-08Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins55.8%73-0

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.