The expectation ledger

The 1939 season, against expectation

Every game of 1939scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19381940→
Games
56
Model Brier
0.1319
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
17.2%
Cleveland Rams

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1939.

1
New York Giants
New York
9.5
exp 7.63
2
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
9
exp 7.34
3
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
8.5
exp 7.00
4
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 6.80
5
Cleveland Rams
Cleveland
5.5
exp 4.65
6
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6
exp 6.18
7
Brooklyn Dodgers
New York
4.5
exp 5.14
8
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh
1.5
exp 3.01
9
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
1
exp 3.18
10
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
1.5
exp 4.09

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1939 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1939-09-10Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions72.7%13-21
1939-09-14Pittsburgh PiratesatBrooklyn Dodgers69.8%7-12
1939-09-15Cleveland RamsatChicago Bears76.3%21-30
1939-09-17Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers78.6%10-14
1939-09-17Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles49.3%7-0
1939-09-20Cleveland RamsatBrooklyn Dodgers66.1%12-23
1939-09-24Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers62.0%16-21
1939-09-24Chicago CardinalsatPittsburgh Pirates51.6%10-0
1939-09-24New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles38.4%13-3
1939-09-24Brooklyn DodgersatDetroit Lions68.6%7-27
1939-10-01Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinals41.3%17-3
1939-10-01New York GiantsatWashington Redskins51.5%0-0
1939-10-01Brooklyn DodgersatPhiladelphia Eagles53.0%0-0
1939-10-01Cleveland RamsatGreen Bay Packersshock82.8%27-24
1939-10-02Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Pirates29.1%32-0
1939-10-08Chicago BearsatCleveland Rams37.5%35-21
1939-10-08Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers78.3%20-27
1939-10-08Brooklyn DodgersatWashington Redskins70.1%13-41
1939-10-08New York GiantsatPittsburgh Pirates22.3%14-7
1939-10-15Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears80.8%7-44
1939-10-15Pittsburgh PiratesatWashington Redskins86.2%14-44
1939-10-15Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants81.5%10-27
1939-10-15Cleveland RamsatDetroit Lions81.0%7-15
1939-10-22Chicago BearsatNew York Giants60.7%13-16
1939-10-22Cleveland RamsatChicago Cardinalsshock59.8%24-0
1939-10-22Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Pirates23.5%21-14
1939-10-22Philadelphia EaglesatBrooklyn Dodgers64.2%14-23
1939-10-22Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers57.6%7-26
1939-10-29Detroit LionsatChicago Bearsshock62.7%10-0
1939-10-29Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers63.2%14-24
1939-10-29New York GiantsatBrooklyn Dodgers35.3%7-6
1939-10-29Pittsburgh PiratesatCleveland Rams76.7%14-14
1939-11-05Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears50.6%27-30
1939-11-05Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Rams68.2%0-14
1939-11-05Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins79.8%6-7
1939-11-05New York GiantsatDetroit Lions55.0%14-18
1939-11-06Pittsburgh PiratesatBrooklyn Dodgers77.8%13-17
1939-11-12Chicago BearsatDetroit Lionsshock64.4%23-13
1939-11-12Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants87.7%7-17
1939-11-12Washington RedskinsatBrooklyn Dodgers44.1%42-0
1939-11-12Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles28.4%23-16
1939-11-19Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears84.9%14-27
1939-11-19Chicago CardinalsatWashington Redskins86.8%7-28
1939-11-19Pittsburgh PiratesatNew York Giants90.7%7-23
1939-11-19Detroit LionsatCleveland Ramsshock39.0%3-14
1939-11-19Green Bay PackersatBrooklyn Dodgers31.9%28-0
1939-11-23Pittsburgh PiratesatPhiladelphia Eagles69.8%14-17
1939-11-26Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals21.6%48-7
1939-11-26Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins66.3%7-31
1939-11-26Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Pirates45.6%12-24
1939-11-26Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Giants83.9%7-28
1939-11-26Green Bay PackersatCleveland Rams35.3%7-6
1939-12-03Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants60.8%7-9
1939-12-03Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Rams74.3%13-35
1939-12-03Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions42.7%12-7
1939-12-10New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers61.8%0-27

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.