The expectation ledger

The 1938 season, against expectation

Every game of 1938scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19371939→
Games
56
Model Brier
0.2249
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
15.4%
Philadelphia Eagles

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1938.

1
New York Giants
New York
8.5
exp 6.77
2
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
5
exp 3.73
3
Cleveland Rams
Cleveland
4
exp 2.99
4
Brooklyn Dodgers
New York
5.5
exp 4.51
5
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
8
exp 7.03
6
Detroit Lions
Detroit
7
exp 7.18
7
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
7
exp 7.20
8
Chicago Bears
Chicago
6
exp 6.89
9
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh
2
exp 4.22
10
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
2
exp 4.48

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1938 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1938-09-09Pittsburgh PiratesatDetroit Lions78.9%7-16
1938-09-11Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears74.0%13-16
1938-09-11Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles31.4%26-23
1938-09-11New York GiantsatPittsburgh Pirates46.1%27-14
1938-09-11Cleveland RamsatGreen Bay Packers83.9%17-26
1938-09-16Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Pirates62.4%27-7
1938-09-17Chicago CardinalsatCleveland Rams40.3%7-6
1938-09-18Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers55.2%2-0
1938-09-18Brooklyn DodgersatWashington Redskins79.0%16-16
1938-09-23Pittsburgh PiratesatBrooklyn Dodgers69.5%17-3
1938-09-25Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers70.2%7-28
1938-09-25Cleveland RamsatWashington Redskins83.6%13-37
1938-09-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles41.6%10-14
1938-09-28Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals42.4%24-22
1938-10-02Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles29.9%28-6
1938-10-02Chicago CardinalsatBrooklyn Dodgers46.7%0-13
1938-10-02Detroit LionsatCleveland Ramsshock26.0%17-21
1938-10-03Pittsburgh PiratesatNew York Giantsshock74.4%13-10
1938-10-09Chicago BearsatCleveland Ramsshock22.3%7-14
1938-10-09New York GiantsatWashington Redskins71.7%10-7
1938-10-09Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers65.0%17-7
1938-10-09Brooklyn DodgersatPittsburgh Pirates58.8%17-7
1938-10-16Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals34.9%34-28
1938-10-16Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions64.5%7-5
1938-10-16Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants72.3%7-17
1938-10-16Brooklyn DodgersatGreen Bay Packers75.9%7-35
1938-10-23Cleveland RamsatChicago Bearsshock84.0%23-21
1938-10-23Chicago CardinalsatDetroit Lions77.8%0-10
1938-10-23Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins80.6%14-20
1938-10-23Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Giants71.2%14-28
1938-10-23Pittsburgh PiratesatGreen Bay Packers83.0%0-20
1938-10-26Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Cardinals64.1%7-0
1938-10-30Detroit LionsatChicago Bears61.3%13-7
1938-10-30Washington RedskinsatBrooklyn Dodgers35.4%6-6
1938-10-30Green Bay PackersatCleveland Rams35.1%28-7
1938-11-06Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears54.1%24-17
1938-11-06Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants75.5%0-6
1938-11-06Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Pirates30.8%7-0
1938-11-06Brooklyn DodgersatPhiladelphia Eagles57.5%10-7
1938-11-06Cleveland RamsatDetroit Lions83.0%0-6
1938-11-13Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears55.3%7-31
1938-11-13Philadelphia EaglesatBrooklyn Dodgers65.3%14-32
1938-11-13Cleveland RamsatNew York Giants76.5%0-28
1938-11-13Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions56.6%28-7
1938-11-20Chicago BearsatBrooklyn Dodgers39.8%24-6
1938-11-20Detroit LionsatChicago Cardinals32.1%7-3
1938-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Pirates57.9%14-7
1938-11-20Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants41.8%3-15
1938-11-24Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions57.3%7-14
1938-11-24New York GiantsatBrooklyn Dodgers37.0%7-7
1938-11-27Cleveland RamsatChicago Cardinals58.8%17-31
1938-11-27Pittsburgh PiratesatWashington Redskins83.6%0-15
1938-12-04Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants61.2%0-36
1938-12-04Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lionsshock84.6%21-7
1938-12-04Cleveland RamsatPittsburgh Pirates55.0%13-7
1938-12-11Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants53.8%17-23

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.