The expectation ledger

The 1930 season, against expectation

Every game of 1930scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19291931→
Games
73
Model Brier
0.1750
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
14.0%
Chicago Bears

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1930.

1
Brooklyn Dodgers
New York
7.5
exp 4.64
2
Chicago Bears
Chicago
9.5
exp 6.76
3
Portsmouth Spartans
Portsmouth
6.5
exp 5.66
4
New York Giants
New York
13
exp 12.65
5
Staten Island Stapletons
New York
6
exp 5.69
6
Providence Steam Roller
Providence
6.5
exp 6.31
7
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
10.5
exp 10.36
8
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
6
exp 6.31
9
Minneapolis Redjackets
Minneapolis
1.5
exp 2.54
10
Frankford Yellow Jackets
Philadelphia
4.5
exp 7.36
11
Newark Tornadoes
New York
1.5
exp 4.72

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1930 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1930-09-14Newark TornadoesatPortsmouth Spartans43.6%6-13
1930-09-17New York GiantsatNewark Tornadoes34.1%32-0
1930-09-21Brooklyn DodgersatChicago Bears73.9%0-0
1930-09-21Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers75.7%0-14
1930-09-21Newark TornadoesatStaten Island Stapletons66.6%6-12
1930-09-23Frankford Yellow JacketsatNewark Tornadoes41.4%13-6
1930-09-24Brooklyn DodgersatPortsmouth Spartans70.3%0-12
1930-09-27Staten Island StapletonsatFrankford Yellow Jackets67.5%3-7
1930-09-28Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers86.6%0-7
1930-09-28Chicago CardinalsatMinneapolis Redjackets35.7%7-7
1930-09-28New York GiantsatProvidence Steam Roller35.5%27-7
1930-09-28Frankford Yellow JacketsatStaten Island Stapletons47.6%0-21
1930-10-01Staten Island StapletonsatNewark Tornadoes42.3%7-7
1930-10-01Frankford Yellow JacketsatProvidence Steam Roller49.1%0-14
1930-10-04Newark TornadoesatFrankford Yellow Jacketsshock72.8%19-0
1930-10-05Chicago BearsatMinneapolis Redjackets51.4%20-0
1930-10-05Chicago CardinalsatPortsmouth Spartans44.9%0-0
1930-10-05New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers58.7%7-14
1930-10-05Brooklyn DodgersatStaten Island Stapletonsshock84.3%20-0
1930-10-05Newark TornadoesatProvidence Steam Roller65.0%0-14
1930-10-08Chicago CardinalsatNewark Tornadoes49.1%13-0
1930-10-08Frankford Yellow JacketsatPortsmouth Spartans51.4%7-39
1930-10-12New York GiantsatChicago Bears28.4%12-0
1930-10-12Chicago CardinalsatProvidence Steam Roller56.6%7-9
1930-10-12Portsmouth SpartansatMinneapolis Redjackets41.5%0-13
1930-10-12Frankford Yellow JacketsatGreen Bay Packers86.7%12-27
1930-10-12Newark TornadoesatBrooklyn Dodgers51.3%0-32
1930-10-16Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants77.7%12-25
1930-10-18Brooklyn DodgersatFrankford Yellow Jackets64.3%14-7
1930-10-19Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinalsshock70.9%32-6
1930-10-19Frankford Yellow JacketsatNew York Giants88.5%0-53
1930-10-19Green Bay PackersatMinneapolis Redjackets16.4%13-0
1930-10-19Staten Island StapletonsatProvidence Steam Roller67.5%6-7
1930-10-19Brooklyn DodgersatNewark Tornadoes53.6%14-0
1930-10-22Chicago BearsatPortsmouth Spartans50.5%6-7
1930-10-25Chicago CardinalsatFrankford Yellow Jackets48.7%34-7
1930-10-26Frankford Yellow JacketsatChicago Bears73.3%7-13
1930-10-26Portsmouth SpartansatChicago Cardinals69.3%13-23
1930-10-26Providence Steam RolleratNew York Giants79.1%0-25
1930-10-26Minneapolis RedjacketsatGreen Bay Packers92.1%0-19
1930-10-26Staten Island StapletonsatNewark Tornadoes43.4%6-0
1930-10-30Newark TornadoesatNew York Giants92.7%7-34
1930-11-02Minneapolis RedjacketsatChicago Bears76.2%7-20
1930-11-02Frankford Yellow JacketsatChicago Cardinals78.7%0-6
1930-11-02Staten Island StapletonsatNew York Giants85.0%7-9
1930-11-02Portsmouth SpartansatGreen Bay Packers89.3%13-47
1930-11-02Brooklyn DodgersatProvidence Steam Roller68.6%0-3
1930-11-05New York GiantsatPortsmouth Spartans19.1%19-6
1930-11-08Providence Steam RolleratFrankford Yellow Jackets33.4%7-20
1930-11-09Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears28.1%13-12
1930-11-09New York GiantsatChicago Cardinals30.7%13-7
1930-11-09Portsmouth SpartansatStaten Island Stapletons70.0%13-13
1930-11-09Minneapolis RedjacketsatBrooklyn Dodgers73.2%0-34
1930-11-09Frankford Yellow JacketsatProvidence Steam Roller73.3%7-7
1930-11-15Portsmouth SpartansatFrankford Yellow Jackets57.6%6-7
1930-11-16Chicago BearsatNew York Giantsshock86.0%12-0
1930-11-16Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals29.7%6-13
1930-11-22Chicago BearsatFrankford Yellow Jackets38.9%13-6
1930-11-23Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants58.5%6-13
1930-11-23Minneapolis RedjacketsatProvidence Steam Roller79.5%0-10
1930-11-23Staten Island StapletonsatBrooklyn Dodgers57.8%6-0
1930-11-27Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears60.3%0-6
1930-11-27New York GiantsatStaten Island Stapletons30.1%6-7
1930-11-27Green Bay PackersatFrankford Yellow Jackets21.7%25-7
1930-11-27Providence Steam RolleratBrooklyn Dodgers51.1%12-33
1930-11-30Portsmouth SpartansatChicago Bears79.7%6-14
1930-11-30Brooklyn DodgersatNew York Giantsshock84.3%7-6
1930-11-30Green Bay PackersatStaten Island Stapletons34.2%37-7
1930-12-06New York GiantsatFrankford Yellow Jackets20.5%14-6
1930-12-07Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears40.5%0-21
1930-12-07New York GiantsatBrooklyn Dodgers29.8%13-0
1930-12-07Minneapolis RedjacketsatPortsmouth Spartans69.5%0-42
1930-12-14Green Bay PackersatPortsmouth Spartans24.4%6-6

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.