The expectation ledger

The 1929 season, against expectation

Every game of 1929scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19281930→
Games
71
Model Brier
0.1271
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
17.8%
Buffalo Bisons

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1929.

1
New York Giants
New York
13.5
exp 9.19
2
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
12.5
exp 9.02
3
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
6.5
exp 5.25
4
Frankford Yellow Jackets
Philadelphia
12.5
exp 11.99
5
Boston Bulldogs
Boston
4
exp 4.38
6
Buffalo Bisons
Buffalo
1.5
exp 1.98
7
Orange Tornadoes
New York
5
exp 5.56
8
Staten Island Stapletons
New York
4.5
exp 5.40
9
Minneapolis Redjackets
Minneapolis
1
exp 2.07
10
Dayton Triangles
Dayton
0
exp 1.38
11
Providence Steam Roller
Providence
5
exp 7.24
12
Chicago Bears
Chicago
5
exp 7.54

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1929 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1929-09-22Chicago BearsatMinneapolis Redjackets29.0%19-6
1929-09-22Dayton TrianglesatGreen Bay Packers79.5%0-9
1929-09-28Dayton TrianglesatFrankford Yellow Jackets81.5%7-14
1929-09-29Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers63.6%0-23
1929-09-29Chicago CardinalsatBuffalo Bisons46.3%9-3
1929-09-29New York GiantsatOrange Tornadoes61.9%0-0
1929-09-29Dayton TrianglesatProvidence Steam Roller82.2%0-41
1929-10-05Buffalo BisonsatFrankford Yellow Jackets87.5%0-19
1929-10-06Chicago BearsatMinneapolis Redjackets28.2%7-6
1929-10-06Frankford Yellow JacketsatBuffalo Bisons21.9%13-0
1929-10-06Boston BulldogsatOrange Tornadoes66.0%0-7
1929-10-06Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers78.1%2-9
1929-10-06New York GiantsatProvidence Steam Rollershock72.5%7-0
1929-10-06Dayton TrianglesatStaten Island Stapletons76.1%0-12
1929-10-13Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bisons28.3%16-0
1929-10-13Dayton TrianglesatBoston Bulldogs69.8%0-41
1929-10-13Chicago CardinalsatMinneapolis Redjacketsshock38.9%7-14
1929-10-13Staten Island StapletonsatNew York Giants60.2%9-19
1929-10-13Frankford Yellow JacketsatGreen Bay Packers59.3%2-14
1929-10-13Orange TornadoesatProvidence Steam Roller65.4%0-7
1929-10-19Orange TornadoesatFrankford Yellow Jackets70.0%6-6
1929-10-20Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears75.7%0-0
1929-10-20Buffalo BisonsatProvidence Steam Roller88.6%7-7
1929-10-20Orange TornadoesatBoston Bulldogs52.4%19-13
1929-10-20Frankford Yellow JacketsatNew York Giants54.0%0-32
1929-10-20Minneapolis RedjacketsatGreen Bay Packers89.6%0-24
1929-10-26Staten Island StapletonsatFrankford Yellow Jackets65.8%6-6
1929-10-27Minneapolis RedjacketsatChicago Bears83.8%0-27
1929-10-27Buffalo BisonsatBoston Bulldogs76.9%6-14
1929-10-27Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals29.5%7-6
1929-10-27Providence Steam RolleratNew York Giants60.7%0-19
1929-10-27Frankford Yellow JacketsatStaten Island Stapletons53.7%3-0
1929-10-29Orange TornadoesatBoston Bulldogs47.8%0-6
1929-11-02Chicago CardinalsatFrankford Yellow Jackets77.1%0-8
1929-11-03New York GiantsatChicago Bears51.4%26-14
1929-11-03Green Bay PackersatMinneapolis Redjackets17.5%16-6
1929-11-03Orange TornadoesatStaten Island Stapletons56.4%0-0
1929-11-05New York GiantsatBuffalo Bisons17.3%45-6
1929-11-05Providence Steam RolleratStaten Island Stapletons51.5%7-7
1929-11-06Chicago CardinalsatProvidence Steam Rollershock76.4%16-0
1929-11-09Providence Steam RolleratFrankford Yellow Jackets68.9%0-7
1929-11-10Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears41.0%14-0
1929-11-10Boston BulldogsatStaten Island Stapletons61.5%6-14
1929-11-10Minneapolis RedjacketsatChicago Cardinals78.1%0-8
1929-11-10Orange TornadoesatNew York Giants74.8%0-22
1929-11-10Frankford Yellow JacketsatProvidence Steam Roller45.3%7-6
1929-11-16Chicago BearsatFrankford Yellow Jackets71.1%14-20
1929-11-17Chicago BearsatNew York Giants79.1%0-34
1929-11-17Buffalo BisonsatBoston Bulldogs80.2%7-12
1929-11-17Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals30.8%12-0
1929-11-17Minneapolis RedjacketsatProvidence Steam Roller81.3%16-19
1929-11-17Frankford Yellow JacketsatOrange Tornadoes45.1%0-0
1929-11-23Minneapolis RedjacketsatFrankford Yellow Jackets89.8%0-24
1929-11-24Buffalo BisonsatChicago Bearsshock82.2%19-7
1929-11-24Boston BulldogsatProvidence Steam Roller62.1%6-20
1929-11-24Dayton TrianglesatChicago Cardinals72.9%0-19
1929-11-24Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants56.9%20-6
1929-11-24Minneapolis RedjacketsatStaten Island Stapletons84.3%0-34
1929-11-28Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears54.0%40-6
1929-11-28New York GiantsatStaten Island Stapletons42.3%21-7
1929-11-28Green Bay PackersatFrankford Yellow Jackets43.4%0-0
1929-12-01Frankford Yellow JacketsatChicago Bears28.6%0-0
1929-12-01Chicago CardinalsatNew York Giants78.1%21-24
1929-12-01Green Bay PackersatProvidence Steam Roller31.0%25-0
1929-12-01Staten Island StapletonsatOrange Tornadoes60.4%0-3
1929-12-07New York GiantsatFrankford Yellow Jackets50.9%12-0
1929-12-08Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears17.6%25-0
1929-12-08Chicago CardinalsatOrange Tornadoesshock61.5%26-0
1929-12-08Frankford Yellow JacketsatNew York Giants71.0%0-31
1929-12-14Orange TornadoesatFrankford Yellow Jackets72.0%0-10
1929-12-15New York GiantsatChicago Bears19.2%14-9

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.