The expectation ledger

The 1928 season, against expectation

Every game of 1928scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19271929→

Games

56

Model Brier

0.1953

Market Brier

—

no usable spreads this season

Longest odds beaten

19.8%

Detroit Wolverines

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1928.

Sort by

Detroit Wolverines

Detroit

7.5

exp 3.68

Frankford Yellow Jackets

Philadelphia

12

exp 9.37

Providence Steam Roller

Providence

9

exp 6.99

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay

7.5

exp 7.20

New York Yankees

New York

4.5

exp 4.89

Chicago Bears

Chicago

7.5

exp 8.50

Chicago Cardinals

Chicago

1

exp 2.31

Pottsville Maroons

Pottsville

2

exp 3.42

Dayton Triangles

Dayton

0

exp 1.76

New York Giants

New York

5

exp 7.88

#	Team
1	Detroit Wolverines	wins against expectation +3.82	7.5	3.68	Detroit
2	Frankford Yellow Jackets	wins against expectation +2.63	12	9.37	Philadelphia
3	Providence Steam Roller	wins against expectation +2.01	9	6.99	Providence
4	Green Bay Packers	wins against expectation +0.30	7.5	7.20	Green Bay
5	New York Yankees	wins against expectation −0.39	4.5	4.89	New York
6	Chicago Bears	wins against expectation −1.00	7.5	8.50	Chicago
7	Chicago Cardinals	wins against expectation −1.31	1	2.31	Chicago
8	Pottsville Maroons	wins against expectation −1.42	2	3.42	Pottsville
9	Dayton Triangles	wins against expectation −1.76	0	1.76	Dayton
10	New York Giants	wins against expectation −2.88	5	7.88	New York

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1928 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

Date	Game	Home chance	Score	Round
1928-09-23	Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals	42.9%	15-0	wk 1
1928-09-23	Frankford Yellow JacketsatGreen Bay Packers	71.2%	19-9	wk 1
1928-09-29	Dayton TrianglesatFrankford Yellow Jackets	72.5%	0-6	wk 2
1928-09-30	Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers	51.5%	12-12	wk 2
1928-09-30	New York GiantsatPottsville Maroons	37.7%	12-6	wk 2
1928-09-30	New York YankeesatProvidence Steam Roller	69.1%	7-20	wk 2
1928-10-07	New York YankeesatPottsville Maroons	63.5%	7-9	wk 3
1928-10-07	Dayton TrianglesatChicago Cardinals	62.7%	0-7	wk 3
1928-10-07	New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers	45.3%	6-0	wk 3
1928-10-07	Frankford Yellow JacketsatProvidence Steam Roller	59.2%	10-6	wk 3
1928-10-13	New York YankeesatFrankford Yellow Jacketsshock	75.7%	13-0	wk 4
1928-10-14	New York GiantsatChicago Bears	50.8%	0-13	wk 4
1928-10-14	Chicago CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers	69.0%	0-20	wk 4
1928-10-14	Detroit WolverinesatNew York Yankeesshock	79.4%	35-12	wk 4
1928-10-14	Dayton TrianglesatProvidence Steam Roller	74.2%	0-28	wk 4
1928-10-20	Dayton TrianglesatFrankford Yellow Jackets	75.5%	9-13	wk 5
1928-10-21	Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears	69.9%	16-6	wk 5
1928-10-21	New York GiantsatDetroit Wolverinesshock	22.5%	0-28	wk 5
1928-10-21	Providence Steam RolleratNew York Yankees	41.9%	12-6	wk 5
1928-10-28	Detroit WolverinesatChicago Bearsshock	80.2%	6-0	wk 6
1928-10-28	Pottsville MaroonsatProvidence Steam Roller	69.6%	6-13	wk 6
1928-10-28	New York GiantsatNew York Yankees	33.9%	10-7	wk 6
1928-10-28	Dayton TrianglesatGreen Bay Packers	82.6%	0-17	wk 6
1928-11-03	Detroit WolverinesatFrankford Yellow Jackets	68.8%	7-25	wk 7
1928-11-04	New York YankeesatChicago Bears	79.4%	0-27	wk 7
1928-11-04	Green Bay PackersatPottsville Maroons	40.5%	26-14	wk 7
1928-11-04	Frankford Yellow JacketsatNew York Giants	65.8%	0-0	wk 7
1928-11-04	Detroit WolverinesatProvidence Steam Roller	75.5%	0-7	wk 7
1928-11-06	Pottsville MaroonsatNew York Giants	76.8%	7-13	wk 7
1928-11-10	Pottsville MaroonsatFrankford Yellow Jackets	73.5%	0-19	wk 8
1928-11-11	Dayton TrianglesatChicago Bears	82.3%	0-27	wk 8
1928-11-11	Frankford Yellow JacketsatPottsville Maroons	39.2%	24-0	wk 8
1928-11-11	Detroit WolverinesatNew York Giants	79.3%	19-19	wk 8
1928-11-11	New York YankeesatGreen Bay Packers	85.0%	0-0	wk 8
1928-11-17	Providence Steam RolleratFrankford Yellow Jackets	60.8%	6-6	wk 9
1928-11-18	Pottsville MaroonsatChicago Bears	81.1%	6-13	wk 9
1928-11-18	Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants	56.5%	7-0	wk 9
1928-11-18	New York YankeesatDetroit Wolverines	65.4%	0-13	wk 9
1928-11-18	Frankford Yellow JacketsatProvidence Steam Roller	58.6%	0-6	wk 9
1928-11-24	Chicago CardinalsatFrankford Yellow Jackets	75.0%	0-19	wk 10
1928-11-25	Chicago BearsatDetroit Wolverines	39.6%	7-14	wk 10
1928-11-25	Green Bay PackersatPottsville Maroons	26.8%	0-26	wk 10
1928-11-25	Chicago CardinalsatNew York Yankees	51.5%	0-19	wk 10
1928-11-25	New York GiantsatProvidence Steam Roller	63.7%	0-16	wk 10
1928-11-29	Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears	79.1%	0-34	wk 11
1928-11-29	Providence Steam RolleratPottsville Maroons	35.0%	7-0	wk 11
1928-11-29	Green Bay PackersatFrankford Yellow Jackets	59.9%	0-2	wk 11
1928-11-29	Dayton TrianglesatDetroit Wolverines	74.1%	0-33	wk 11
1928-12-02	Frankford Yellow JacketsatChicago Bears	57.7%	6-28	wk 11
1928-12-02	New York YankeesatNew York Giantsshock	76.5%	19-13	wk 11
1928-12-02	Green Bay PackersatProvidence Steam Roller	67.3%	7-7	wk 11
1928-12-08	New York GiantsatFrankford Yellow Jackets	66.6%	0-7	wk 12
1928-12-09	Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears	63.5%	6-0	wk 12
1928-12-09	Detroit WolverinesatNew York Yankees	50.5%	34-6	wk 12
1928-12-15	Chicago BearsatFrankford Yellow Jackets	60.2%	0-19	wk 13
1928-12-16	New York GiantsatNew York Yankees	46.8%	6-7	wk 13

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.