The expectation ledger

The 1923 season, against expectation

Every game of 1923scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19221924→
Games
88
Model Brier
0.1548
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
20.4%
Milwaukee Badgers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1923.

1
Milwaukee Badgers
Milwaukee
8.5
exp 5.70
2
Canton Bulldogs
Cleveland
11.5
exp 9.19
3
Cleveland Indians
Cleveland
4.5
exp 2.70
4
Duluth Kelleys
Duluth
4
exp 2.30
5
Chicago Bears
Chicago
9.5
exp 8.08
6
Columbus Tigers
Columbus
5.5
exp 4.13
7
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
7.5
exp 6.37
8
Racine Legion
Milwaukee
5
exp 5.06
9
Toledo Maroons
Toledo
4
exp 4.22
10
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
8
exp 8.32
11
Buffalo All-Americans
Buffalo
6.5
exp 6.88
12
St. Louis All-Stars
St. Louis
2
exp 2.54
Show all 20 rows
13
Hammond Pros
Chicago
1.5
exp 2.28
14
Minneapolis Marines
Minneapolis
3
exp 3.96
15
Rock Island Independents
Moline
3.5
exp 4.78
16
Louisville Brecks
Louisville
0
exp 1.35
17
Rochester Jeffersons
Rochester
0
exp 1.37
18
Akron Pros
Cleveland
1
exp 2.49
19
Oorang Indians
Marion
1
exp 2.89
20
Dayton Triangles
Dayton
1.5
exp 3.39

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1923 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1923-09-30Oorang IndiansatMilwaukee Badgers57.3%2-13
1923-09-30Chicago BearsatRock Island Independents53.9%0-3
1923-09-30Buffalo All-AmericansatChicago Cardinals57.1%0-3
1923-09-30Hammond ProsatCanton Bulldogs84.4%0-17
1923-09-30Akron ProsatDuluth Kelleys29.9%7-10
1923-09-30Toledo MaroonsatRacine Legion53.3%7-7
1923-09-30Minneapolis MarinesatGreen Bay Packers64.4%0-12
1923-09-30Columbus TigersatDayton Triangles78.0%6-7
1923-10-07St. Louis All-StarsatGreen Bay Packers83.7%0-0
1923-10-07Columbus TigersatMilwaukee Badgers67.1%0-0
1923-10-07Chicago BearsatRacine Legion44.2%3-0
1923-10-07Akron ProsatBuffalo All-Americans66.5%0-9
1923-10-07Louisville BrecksatCanton Bulldogs85.2%0-37
1923-10-07Rochester JeffersonsatChicago Cardinals73.0%0-60
1923-10-07Cleveland IndiansatRock Island Independents87.3%0-0
1923-10-07Oorang IndiansatToledo Maroons75.8%0-7
1923-10-07Dayton TrianglesatHammond Pros44.0%0-7
1923-10-07Duluth KelleysatMinneapolis Marinesshock75.0%10-0
1923-10-14Hammond ProsatSt. Louis All-Stars41.8%0-0
1923-10-14Racine LegionatMilwaukee Badgers51.4%7-7
1923-10-14Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers47.1%3-0
1923-10-14Buffalo All-AmericansatColumbus Tigers31.6%3-0
1923-10-14Dayton TrianglesatCanton Bulldogs79.5%0-30
1923-10-14Akron ProsatChicago Cardinals71.8%0-19
1923-10-14Rochester JeffersonsatRock Island Independents75.7%0-56
1923-10-14Oorang IndiansatMinneapolis Marines63.3%0-23
1923-10-21St. Louis All-StarsatCleveland Indians59.1%0-6
1923-10-21Milwaukee BadgersatGreen Bay Packers70.6%0-12
1923-10-21Canton BulldogsatChicago Bears49.5%6-0
1923-10-21Oorang IndiansatBuffalo All-Americans83.2%0-57
1923-10-21Minneapolis MarinesatChicago Cardinals78.5%0-9
1923-10-21Louisville BrecksatColumbus Tigers51.8%0-34
1923-10-21Akron ProsatRacine Legion59.8%7-9
1923-10-21Dayton TrianglesatToledo Maroons66.0%3-6
1923-10-21Hammond ProsatDuluth Kelleys49.2%0-3
1923-10-28St. Louis All-StarsatMilwaukee Badgers71.9%0-6
1923-10-28Buffalo All-AmericansatChicago Bears60.3%3-18
1923-10-28Akron ProsatCanton Bulldogs85.4%3-7
1923-10-28Dayton TrianglesatChicago Cardinals75.3%3-13
1923-10-28Oorang IndiansatCleveland Indians56.9%0-27
1923-10-28Columbus TigersatToledo Maroonsshock77.7%3-0
1923-10-28Racine LegionatGreen Bay Packers64.2%24-3
1923-10-28Minneapolis MarinesatDuluth Kelleys52.6%0-9
1923-11-04Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis All-Stars33.8%3-0
1923-11-04Milwaukee BadgersatRock Island Independentsshock79.6%14-3
1923-11-04Oorang IndiansatChicago Bears88.8%0-26
1923-11-04Buffalo All-AmericansatCleveland Indians30.9%0-0
1923-11-04Canton BulldogsatChicago Cardinals46.6%7-3
1923-11-04Racine LegionatMinneapolis Marines42.7%6-13
1923-11-11Oorang IndiansatSt. Louis All-Stars54.9%7-14
1923-11-11Duluth KelleysatMilwaukee Badgers66.5%3-6
1923-11-11Akron ProsatChicago Bears79.2%6-20
1923-11-11Canton BulldogsatBuffalo All-Americans36.6%3-3
1923-11-11Hammond ProsatChicago Cardinals80.3%0-6
1923-11-11Rock Island IndependentsatMinneapolis Marines43.8%6-6
1923-11-11Toledo MaroonsatColumbus Tigers44.4%0-16
1923-11-11Green Bay PackersatRacine Legion61.1%16-0
1923-11-11Dayton TrianglesatCleveland Indians45.1%0-0
1923-11-18Green Bay PackersatMilwaukee Badgers51.4%10-7
1923-11-18Rock Island IndependentsatChicago Bears71.6%3-7
1923-11-18Dayton TrianglesatBuffalo All-Americans72.0%0-3
1923-11-18Oorang IndiansatCanton Bulldogs94.2%0-41
1923-11-18Duluth KelleysatChicago Cardinals83.4%0-10
1923-11-18Columbus TigersatCleveland Indians47.7%3-9
1923-11-24Milwaukee BadgersatSt. Louis All-Stars38.3%17-0
1923-11-24Toledo MaroonsatRochester Jeffersons48.5%12-6
1923-11-25Hammond ProsatChicago Bears84.2%7-14
1923-11-25Toledo MaroonsatBuffalo All-Americans67.7%3-3
1923-11-25Canton BulldogsatCleveland Indians17.8%46-10
1923-11-25Racine LegionatChicago Cardinalsshock77.9%10-4
1923-11-25Minneapolis MarinesatRock Island Independents71.7%6-6
1923-11-25Oorang IndiansatColumbus Tigers76.0%3-27
1923-11-25Duluth KelleysatGreen Bay Packers77.3%0-10
1923-11-29Milwaukee BadgersatRacine Legion62.4%16-0
1923-11-29Chicago CardinalsatChicago Bears67.9%0-3
1923-11-29Buffalo All-AmericansatAkron Pros42.0%0-2
1923-11-29Toledo MaroonsatCanton Bulldogs83.6%0-28
1923-11-29Hammond ProsatGreen Bay Packers75.9%0-19
1923-12-01Buffalo All-AmericansatRochester Jeffersons37.0%13-0
1923-12-02Milwaukee BadgersatChicago Bears77.2%0-0
1923-12-02Buffalo All-AmericansatCanton Bulldogs79.4%0-14
1923-12-02Oorang IndiansatChicago Cardinals88.8%19-22
1923-12-02Minneapolis MarinesatRacine Legion62.0%0-23
1923-12-02Dayton TrianglesatColumbus Tigers57.2%3-30
1923-12-09Milwaukee BadgersatChicago Cardinals67.2%14-12
1923-12-09Rock Island IndependentsatChicago Bears75.0%7-29
1923-12-09Canton BulldogsatColumbus Tigers22.5%10-0
1923-12-09Oorang IndiansatLouisville Brecksshock72.2%19-0

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.