The expectation ledger

The 1922 season, against expectation

Every game of 1922scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19211923→
Games
74
Model Brier
0.1413
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
9.9%
Oorang Indians

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1922.

1
Canton Bulldogs
Cleveland
11
exp 7.81
2
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
8
exp 6.17
3
Chicago Bears
Chicago
9
exp 8.00
4
Oorang Indians
Marion
3
exp 2.05
5
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
5.5
exp 4.68
6
Toledo Maroons
Toledo
6
exp 5.39
7
Milwaukee Badgers
Milwaukee
3.5
exp 2.99
8
Dayton Triangles
Dayton
4.5
exp 4.20
9
Rock Island Independents
Moline
4.5
exp 4.25
10
Louisville Brecks
Louisville
1
exp 1.27
11
Racine Legion
Milwaukee
6.5
exp 6.85
12
Buffalo All-Americans
Buffalo
5.5
exp 6.09
Show all 18 rows
13
Minneapolis Marines
Minneapolis
1
exp 1.95
14
Evansville Crimson Giants
Evansville
0
exp 1.01
15
Hammond Pros
Chicago
0.5
exp 1.70
16
Rochester Jeffersons
Rochester
0.5
exp 1.76
17
Akron Pros
Cleveland
4
exp 5.47
18
Columbus Panhandles
Columbus
0
exp 2.36

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1922 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1922-10-01Milwaukee BadgersatChicago Cardinals81.4%0-3
1922-10-01Chicago BearsatRacine Legion45.4%6-0
1922-10-01Hammond ProsatBuffalo All-Americans78.8%0-7
1922-10-01Louisville BrecksatCanton Bulldogs79.3%0-38
1922-10-01Evansville Crimson GiantsatToledo Maroons70.1%0-15
1922-10-01Green Bay PackersatRock Island Independents70.0%14-19
1922-10-01Columbus PanhandlesatAkron Pros80.5%0-36
1922-10-01Oorang IndiansatDayton Triangles82.9%0-36
1922-10-08Milwaukee BadgersatToledo Maroons84.2%12-12
1922-10-08Chicago BearsatRock Island Independents50.9%10-6
1922-10-08Canton BulldogsatDayton Triangles50.1%0-0
1922-10-08Columbus PanhandlesatOorang Indians44.6%6-20
1922-10-08Racine LegionatGreen Bay Packers55.2%10-6
1922-10-12Rochester JeffersonsatAkron Pros73.2%13-13
1922-10-15Racine LegionatMilwaukee Badgersshock33.0%0-20
1922-10-15Rochester JeffersonsatChicago Bears75.2%0-7
1922-10-15Columbus PanhandlesatBuffalo All-Americans85.3%0-19
1922-10-15Oorang IndiansatCanton Bulldogs87.0%0-14
1922-10-15Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals68.2%3-16
1922-10-15Evansville Crimson GiantsatRock Island Independents75.0%0-60
1922-10-15Hammond ProsatToledo Maroons70.6%0-14
1922-10-15Minneapolis MarinesatDayton Triangles64.1%0-17
1922-10-22Green Bay PackersatMilwaukee Badgers50.2%0-0
1922-10-22Buffalo All-AmericansatChicago Bears62.5%0-7
1922-10-22Canton BulldogsatAkron Pros59.3%22-0
1922-10-22Minneapolis MarinesatChicago Cardinals65.6%0-3
1922-10-22Rochester JeffersonsatRock Island Independents67.8%0-26
1922-10-22Toledo MaroonsatRacine Legion48.6%7-0
1922-10-22Hammond ProsatDayton Triangles75.7%0-20
1922-10-29Hammond ProsatMilwaukee Badgers52.8%0-0
1922-10-29Canton BulldogsatChicago Bearsshock61.9%7-6
1922-10-29Buffalo All-AmericansatDayton Triangles53.4%7-0
1922-10-29Columbus PanhandlesatChicago Cardinals79.2%6-37
1922-10-29Louisville BrecksatToledo Maroons78.2%0-39
1922-10-29Rock Island IndependentsatGreen Bay Packers36.9%0-0
1922-10-29Oorang IndiansatAkron Pros85.2%0-62
1922-10-29Rochester JeffersonsatRacine Legion54.1%0-9
1922-11-05Dayton TrianglesatChicago Bears73.0%0-9
1922-11-05Buffalo All-AmericansatChicago Cardinals47.4%7-9
1922-11-05Toledo MaroonsatCanton Bulldogs69.5%0-0
1922-11-05Louisville BrecksatRacine Legion69.4%0-57
1922-11-05Hammond ProsatAkron Pros79.3%0-22
1922-11-05Oorang IndiansatMinneapolis Marines77.8%6-13
1922-11-05Columbus PanhandlesatGreen Bay Packers69.3%0-3
1922-11-11Columbus PanhandlesatRacine Legion76.7%0-34
1922-11-12Oorang IndiansatChicago Bears91.9%6-33
1922-11-12Buffalo All-AmericansatCanton Bulldogs62.8%0-3
1922-11-12Akron ProsatChicago Cardinals55.1%0-7
1922-11-12Evansville Crimson GiantsatLouisville Brecks54.0%6-13
1922-11-12Dayton TrianglesatRock Island Independents65.6%0-43
1922-11-12Minneapolis MarinesatGreen Bay Packers53.7%6-14
1922-11-19Oorang IndiansatMilwaukee Badgers67.0%0-13
1922-11-19Rock Island IndependentsatChicago Bears67.7%0-3
1922-11-19Akron ProsatBuffalo All-Americans64.5%3-3
1922-11-19Canton BulldogsatChicago Cardinals48.2%7-0
1922-11-19Green Bay PackersatRacine Legion65.3%3-3
1922-11-26Milwaukee BadgersatGreen Bay Packers70.3%0-13
1922-11-26Akron ProsatChicago Bears72.4%10-20
1922-11-26Oorang IndiansatBuffalo All-Americansshock90.1%19-7
1922-11-26Chicago CardinalsatCanton Bulldogs74.1%3-20
1922-11-26Columbus PanhandlesatToledo Maroons85.9%6-7
1922-11-26Hammond ProsatRacine Legion72.3%0-6
1922-11-30Milwaukee BadgersatRacine Legion77.0%0-3
1922-11-30Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals38.6%0-6
1922-11-30Buffalo All-AmericansatRochester Jeffersons46.4%21-0
1922-11-30Akron ProsatCanton Bulldogs75.1%0-14
1922-11-30Oorang IndiansatColumbus Panhandles57.4%18-6
1922-12-03Milwaukee BadgersatCanton Bulldogs91.3%6-40
1922-12-03Toledo MaroonsatChicago Bears70.2%0-22
1922-12-03Akron ProsatBuffalo All-Americans63.0%0-16
1922-12-03Dayton TrianglesatChicago Cardinalsshock67.3%7-3
1922-12-03Green Bay PackersatRacine Legionshock64.2%14-0
1922-12-10Chicago BearsatChicago Cardinals39.9%0-9
1922-12-10Canton BulldogsatToledo Maroons38.9%19-0

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.