The expectation ledger

The 1921 season, against expectation

Every game of 1921scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19201922→
Games
66
Model Brier
0.1553
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
25.9%
Canton Bulldogs

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1921.

1
Chicago Staleys
Chicago
9.5
exp 7.56
2
Buffalo All-Americans
Buffalo
10
exp 8.14
3
Canton Bulldogs
Cleveland
6.5
exp 5.08
4
Evansville Crimson Giants
Evansville
3
exp 2.10
5
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
3.5
exp 2.75
6
Rock Island Independents
Moline
4.5
exp 3.85
7
Akron Pros
Cleveland
8.5
exp 8.08
8
Washington Senators
Washington-Baltimore
1
exp 0.77
9
Detroit Heralds
Detroit
1.5
exp 1.36
10
Rochester Jeffersons
Rochester
2
exp 1.96
11
Hammond Pros
Chicago
1.5
exp 1.66
12
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
4
exp 4.35
Show all 21 rows
13
Dayton Triangles
Dayton
4.5
exp 4.85
14
Tonawanda Kardex
Buffalo
0
exp 0.47
15
New York Brickley's Giants
New York
0
exp 0.48
16
Cincinnati Celts
Cincinnati
1
exp 1.82
17
Minneapolis Marines
Minneapolis
1
exp 1.97
18
Cleveland Indians
Cleveland
3
exp 4.01
19
Muncie Flyers
Muncie
0
exp 1.12
20
Louisville Brecks
Louisville
0
exp 1.23
21
Columbus Panhandles
Columbus
1
exp 2.38

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1921 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1921-09-25Columbus PanhandlesatAkron Pros78.0%0-14
1921-10-02Hammond ProsatBuffalo All-Americans76.4%0-17
1921-10-02Minneapolis MarinesatChicago Cardinals59.1%0-20
1921-10-02Cincinnati CeltsatAkron Pros72.9%0-41
1921-10-02Louisville BrecksatEvansville Crimson Giants43.0%0-21
1921-10-02Detroit HeraldsatRock Island Independents82.7%0-0
1921-10-02Columbus PanhandlesatDayton Triangles71.8%13-42
1921-10-09Columbus PanhandlesatBuffalo All-Americans77.3%0-38
1921-10-09Hammond ProsatCanton Bulldogs74.5%7-7
1921-10-09Akron ProsatChicago Cardinals44.9%23-0
1921-10-09Muncie FlyersatEvansville Crimson Giants40.3%0-14
1921-10-09Dayton TrianglesatDetroit Heraldsshock27.0%7-10
1921-10-10Rock Island IndependentsatChicago Staleys65.8%10-14
1921-10-16Rochester JeffersonsatChicago Staleys71.3%13-16
1921-10-16New York Brickley's GiantsatBuffalo All-Americans87.8%0-55
1921-10-16Canton BulldogsatDayton Triangles61.1%14-14
1921-10-16Rock Island IndependentsatChicago Cardinals61.0%14-7
1921-10-16Cincinnati CeltsatMuncie Flyers52.5%14-0
1921-10-16Hammond ProsatEvansville Crimson Giants54.0%3-0
1921-10-16Akron ProsatDetroit Heralds18.4%20-0
1921-10-16Columbus PanhandlesatCleveland Indians66.9%9-35
1921-10-23Dayton TrianglesatChicago Staleys64.8%0-7
1921-10-23Rochester JeffersonsatBuffalo All-Americans75.5%0-28
1921-10-23Akron ProsatCanton Bulldogs38.0%3-0
1921-10-23Columbus PanhandlesatChicago Cardinals71.4%6-17
1921-10-23Cincinnati CeltsatCleveland Indians54.4%0-28
1921-10-23Rock Island IndependentsatDetroit Heralds32.6%14-0
1921-10-23Minneapolis MarinesatGreen Bay Packers49.8%6-7
1921-10-30Detroit HeraldsatBuffalo All-Americans88.9%0-21
1921-10-30Rock Island IndependentsatGreen Bay Packers43.7%13-3
1921-10-30Rochester JeffersonsatAkron Pros85.0%0-19
1921-10-30Columbus PanhandlesatMinneapolis Marines73.0%0-28
1921-10-30Cleveland IndiansatDayton Triangles59.3%2-3
1921-11-06Detroit HeraldsatChicago Staleys87.8%9-20
1921-11-06Cleveland IndiansatBuffalo All-Americans72.7%6-10
1921-11-06Dayton TrianglesatCanton Bulldogs58.1%0-14
1921-11-06Hammond ProsatChicago Cardinals67.9%0-7
1921-11-06Evansville Crimson GiantsatGreen Bay Packers65.5%6-43
1921-11-06Minneapolis MarinesatRock Island Independents67.2%3-14
1921-11-06Akron ProsatColumbus Panhandles17.4%21-0
1921-11-06Tonawanda KardexatRochester Jeffersons52.8%0-45
1921-11-13Rock Island IndependentsatChicago Staleys61.7%0-3
1921-11-13Akron ProsatBuffalo All-Americans48.1%0-0
1921-11-13Canton BulldogsatCleveland Indians54.5%7-0
1921-11-13Detroit HeraldsatDayton Triangles82.0%0-27
1921-11-13Hammond ProsatGreen Bay Packers61.3%7-14
1921-11-20Cleveland IndiansatChicago Staleys74.6%7-22
1921-11-20Canton BulldogsatBuffalo All-Americans67.9%7-7
1921-11-20Green Bay PackersatChicago Cardinals67.2%3-3
1921-11-20Akron ProsatDayton Trianglesshock32.7%0-3
1921-11-20Columbus PanhandlesatRochester Jeffersons75.3%13-27
1921-11-24Buffalo All-AmericansatChicago Staleys58.6%7-6
1921-11-24Canton BulldogsatAkron Prosshock74.1%14-0
1921-11-27Green Bay PackersatChicago Staleys77.8%0-20
1921-11-27Dayton TrianglesatBuffalo All-Americans71.7%0-7
1921-11-27Canton BulldogsatWashington Senators20.5%15-0
1921-11-27Cincinnati CeltsatEvansville Crimson Giants37.8%0-48
1921-12-03Akron ProsatBuffalo All-Americans59.3%0-14
1921-12-03Cleveland IndiansatNew York Brickley's Giants35.7%17-0
1921-12-04Buffalo All-AmericansatChicago Staleys53.4%7-10
1921-12-04Akron ProsatChicago Cardinals42.9%7-0
1921-12-04Columbus PanhandlesatLouisville Brecksshock66.0%6-0
1921-12-11Canton BulldogsatChicago Staleys61.0%0-10
1921-12-11Cleveland IndiansatWashington Senatorsshock32.9%0-7
1921-12-18Chicago CardinalsatChicago Staleys79.0%0-0
1921-12-18Canton BulldogsatWashington Senators23.2%28-14

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