The expectation ledger

The 1920 season, against expectation

Every game of 1920scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

1921→
Games
40
Model Brier
0.1456
Market Brier
—
no usable spreads this season
Longest odds beaten
21.8%
Decatur Staleys

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1920.

1
Akron Pros
Cleveland
7.5
exp 5.15
2
Decatur Staleys
Decatur
6
exp 4.03
3
Buffalo All-Americans
Buffalo
4.5
exp 3.78
4
Dayton Triangles
Dayton
5
exp 4.57
5
Canton Bulldogs
Cleveland
4.5
exp 4.16
6
Chicago Cardinals
Chicago
3.5
exp 3.30
7
Muncie Flyers
Muncie
0
exp 0.36
8
Rock Island Independents
Moline
4.5
exp 4.87
9
Rochester Jeffersons
Rochester
0
exp 0.41
10
Chicago Tigers
Chicago
1.5
exp 2.00
11
Cleveland Tigers
Cleveland
2
exp 2.76
12
Hammond Pros
Chicago
0
exp 0.86
Show all 14 rows
13
Detroit Heralds
Detroit
1
exp 2.04
14
Columbus Panhandles
Columbus
0
exp 1.73

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1920 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1920-10-03Muncie FlyersatRock Island Independents64.4%0-45
1920-10-03Columbus PanhandlesatDayton Triangles57.6%0-14
1920-10-10Chicago CardinalsatChicago Tigers32.4%0-0
1920-10-10Hammond ProsatRock Island Independents71.9%0-26
1920-10-10Columbus PanhandlesatAkron Pros63.7%0-37
1920-10-10Cleveland TigersatDayton Triangles66.1%0-0
1920-10-17Decatur StaleysatRock Island Independentsshock78.2%7-0
1920-10-17Cleveland TigersatCanton Bulldogs67.0%0-7
1920-10-17Detroit HeraldsatChicago Tigersshock30.9%0-12
1920-10-17Hammond ProsatDayton Triangles70.2%0-44
1920-10-24Decatur StaleysatChicago Tigers45.6%10-0
1920-10-24Canton BulldogsatDayton Triangles58.0%20-20
1920-10-24Chicago CardinalsatRock Island Independents62.7%0-7
1920-10-24Columbus PanhandlesatDetroit Heralds66.1%0-6
1920-10-24Cleveland TigersatAkron Pros71.0%0-7
1920-10-31Rochester JeffersonsatBuffalo All-Americans59.4%6-17
1920-10-31Akron ProsatCanton Bulldogsshock57.1%10-0
1920-10-31Detroit HeraldsatChicago Cardinals59.0%0-21
1920-10-31Chicago TigersatRock Island Independents83.5%7-20
1920-10-31Columbus PanhandlesatCleveland Tigers64.2%0-7
1920-11-07Decatur StaleysatRock Island Independents67.5%0-0
1920-11-07Canton BulldogsatCleveland Tigers51.3%18-0
1920-11-07Chicago CardinalsatChicago Tigers32.2%6-3
1920-11-14Columbus PanhandlesatBuffalo All-Americans76.0%7-43
1920-11-14Chicago TigersatCanton Bulldogs85.3%0-21
1920-11-14Dayton TrianglesatRock Island Independentsshock58.8%21-0
1920-11-14Akron ProsatCleveland Tigers37.0%7-7
1920-11-21Hammond ProsatDecatur Staleys71.9%7-28
1920-11-21Canton BulldogsatBuffalo All-Americansshock61.1%3-0
1920-11-21Dayton TrianglesatAkron Pros60.4%0-13
1920-11-25Decatur StaleysatChicago Tigers27.3%6-0
1920-11-25Canton BulldogsatAkron Pros63.6%0-7
1920-11-25Detroit HeraldsatDayton Triangles71.7%0-28
1920-11-28Decatur StaleysatChicago Cardinals57.8%6-7
1920-11-28Cleveland TigersatBuffalo All-Americans72.8%0-7
1920-11-28Akron ProsatDayton Triangles52.8%14-0
1920-12-04Canton BulldogsatBuffalo All-Americans59.7%3-7
1920-12-05Chicago CardinalsatDecatur Staleys59.1%0-10
1920-12-05Akron ProsatBuffalo All-Americans48.8%0-0
1920-12-12Akron ProsatDecatur Staleys47.9%0-0

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.