Track Record

Every seat range and win probability this site has published, scored once the count is final.

AS OF 2026-11-01 · 7 RACES PENDING · 3 RESOLVED · SITE FORECAST LEDGER

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Pending

Races still to come, alongside what has already resolved.

How this is measured
Sorted by days to the vote; a race that has voted but has no result filed yet shows as result due, the same overdue treatment as the next-to-vote board on the Elections hub.

The first to resolve is United States on 3 November 2026, 2 days away.

United States
3 November 2026 · forecast from 30 October 2026
2 days
New Zealand
7 November 2026 · forecast from 30 October 2026
6 days
Spain
29 November 2026 · forecast from 30 October 2026
28 days
France
11 April 2027 · forecast from 30 October 2026
161 days
United States (president)
7 November 2028 · forecast from 30 October 2026
737 days
United Kingdom
3 May 2029 · forecast from 30 October 2026
914 days
Brazil
6 October 2030 · forecast from 30 October 2026
1,435 days

Resolved

Scored the day the count was final, against the forecast's own last snapshot.

How this is measured
Brier is the mean squared error of every binary probability this site published against what actually happened, lower is better. Mean miss is the absolute error of the published seat or vote-share figure against the certified result. Coverage is the share of 80% intervals that actually contained the result; a well-calibrated model lands near 80%. Figures frozen with no range at all (Brazil's first round, before 9 October 2026) count toward the mean miss and never toward coverage.
Brier score
0.2314
Picks correct
2/3
Mean miss · seats or share points
2.0
80% interval coverage
9380%
Brazil
4 October 2026 · 0/0 picks
—
Brazil
Provisional count as of 26 October 2026
25 October 2026 · 0/1 picks
—
Israel
Provisional count as of 30 October 2026
27 October 2026 · 2/2 picks
—
Calibration

80% ranges held the result 15 times in 16 (93.8%), across 2 races. The probability reliability table needs 20 graded probabilities from 3 races (so far 3 from 2). 6 graded figures were frozen with no range and sit outside both counts.

Where these numbers come from

Scored by the same pipeline as The Ledger, the site's general forecast accountability page: every pre-election snapshot is frozen automatically before the vote, then graded against the certified result once it is filed. Method for each live forecast is on Election Forecasts.