Track Record
Every seat range and win probability this site has published, scored once the count is final.
AS OF 2026-09-16 · 6 RACES PENDING · 0 RESOLVED · SITE FORECAST LEDGER
Pending
Nothing has voted yet. Every forecast below is still open.
How this is measured
Sorted by days to the vote; a race that has voted but has no result filed yet shows as result due, the same overdue treatment as the next-to-vote board on the Elections hub.
The first to resolve is Brazil on 4 October 2026, 18 days away.
Brazil
4 October 2026 · forecast from 16 September 2026
18 days
Israel
27 October 2026 · forecast from 16 September 2026
41 days
United States
3 November 2026 · forecast from 16 September 2026
48 days
New Zealand
7 November 2026 · forecast from 16 September 2026
52 days
France
11 April 2027 · forecast from 16 September 2026
207 days
United Kingdom
3 May 2029 · forecast from 16 September 2026
960 days
Where these numbers come from
Scored by the same pipeline as The Ledger, the site's general forecast accountability page: every pre-election snapshot is frozen automatically before the vote, then graded against the certified result once it is filed. Method for each live forecast is on Election Forecasts.