Markets & calls
Where we stand on live calls, and how our models differ from Polymarket.
Source: our models, Polymarket
Where we stand
Our live calls, each with the result that would prove it wrong.
- The Brewers will win the Championship Series82%MLB · Next game 15 OctWrong if: The Dodgers win 4 more games
- Georgia will beat Auburn85%College football · Settles 17 OctWrong if: Auburn win on 17 Oct
- Fulham will beat Hull City70%Premier League · Settles 17 OctWrong if: Hull City win or draw on 17 Oct
- Los Angeles Rams will beat Arizona Cardinals79%NFL · Settles 18 OctWrong if: Arizona Cardinals win on 18 Oct
- F. Bolsonaro will win the presidency81%Brazil election · Settles 25 OctWrong if: Lula wins the runoff on 25 Oct
- Democrats will win the House88%US midterms · Settles 3 NovWrong if: Republicans keep a House majority
Model vs market
Our models against Polymarket prices; bars show the gap in percentage points.
How to read this
Gap is our model minus the market price, in probability points. Where a model already blends the market in, its gaps are smaller by construction.
Largest gaps
| Event | Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Series 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | 59% | 46% | Gap, model minus market: +13.7 pp |
| World Series 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 13% | 22% | Gap, model minus market: −8.7 pp |
| Champions League 2026-27 | FC Barcelona | 7% | 15% | Gap, model minus market: −7.9 pp |
| Stanley Cup 2026-27 | Colorado Avalanche | 15% | 8% | Gap, model minus market: +7.4 pp |
| Stanley Cup 2026-27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 11% | 4% | Gap, model minus market: +7.2 pp |
- World Series 2026Milwaukee BrewersModel 59% · Market 46%Gap, model minus market: +13.7 pp
- World Series 2026Los Angeles DodgersModel 13% · Market 22%Gap, model minus market: −8.7 pp
- Champions League 2026-27FC BarcelonaModel 7% · Market 15%Gap, model minus market: −7.9 pp
- Stanley Cup 2026-27Colorado AvalancheModel 15% · Market 8%Gap, model minus market: +7.4 pp
- Stanley Cup 2026-27Tampa Bay LightningModel 11% · Market 4%Gap, model minus market: +7.2 pp
Every event
World Series 20264 outcomes · largest gap +13.7 pp
World Series 2026
on Polymarket ↗- Milwaukee BrewersModel 59% · Market 46%Market 46%Gap, model minus market: +13.7 pp
- Los Angeles DodgersModel 13% · Market 22%Market 22%Gap, model minus market: −8.7 pp
- Tampa Bay RaysModel 14% · Market 17%Market 17%Gap, model minus market: −2.9 pp
- Cleveland GuardiansModel 14% · Market 16%Market 16%Gap, model minus market: −2.1 pp
Super Bowl LXI6 outcomes · largest gap -5.9 pp
Super Bowl LXI
on Polymarket ↗- Buffalo BillsModel 10% · Market 12%Market 12%Gap, model minus market: −1.9 pp
- San Francisco 49ersModel 12% · Market 12%Market 12%Gap, model minus market: +0.3 pp
- Los Angeles RamsModel 5% · Market 10%Market 10%Gap, model minus market: −5.9 pp
- Kansas City ChiefsModel 10% · Market 10%Market 10%Gap, model minus market: +0.5 pp
- Jacksonville JaguarsModel 8% · Market 6%Market 6%Gap, model minus market: +1.9 pp
- Baltimore RavensModel 8% · Market 7%Market 7%Gap, model minus market: +0.4 pp
NBA title 2026-276 outcomes · largest gap -4.9 pp
- San Antonio SpursModel 19% · Market 22%Market 22%Gap, model minus market: −2.4 pp
- Oklahoma City ThunderModel 19% · Market 19%Market 19%Gap, model minus market: +0.3 pp
- Philadelphia 76ersModel 6% · Market 11%Market 11%Gap, model minus market: −4.9 pp
- New York KnicksModel 10% · Market 8%Market 8%Gap, model minus market: +2.2 pp
- Detroit PistonsModel 7% · Market 3%Market 3%Gap, model minus market: +3.8 pp
- Minnesota TimberwolvesModel 4% · Market 6%Market 6%Gap, model minus market: −2.0 pp
Stanley Cup 2026-276 outcomes · largest gap +7.4 pp
- Colorado AvalancheModel 15% · Market 8%Market 8%Gap, model minus market: +7.4 pp
- Tampa Bay LightningModel 11% · Market 4%Market 4%Gap, model minus market: +7.2 pp
- Carolina HurricanesModel 10% · Market 6%Market 6%Gap, model minus market: +4.4 pp
- Vegas Golden KnightsModel 7% · Market 5%Market 5%Gap, model minus market: +2.3 pp
- Dallas StarsModel 7% · Market 4%Market 4%Gap, model minus market: +3.1 pp
- Edmonton OilersModel 6% · Market 5%Market 5%Gap, model minus market: +0.7 pp
Champions League 2026-276 outcomes · largest gap -7.9 pp
Champions League 2026-27
on Polymarket ↗- Bayern MunichModel 16% · Market 9%Market 9%Gap, model minus market: +6.7 pp
- Paris Saint-GermainModel 16% · Market 9%Market 9%Gap, model minus market: +6.7 pp
- FC BarcelonaModel 7% · Market 15%Market 15%Gap, model minus market: −7.9 pp
- ArsenalModel 13% · Market 9%Market 9%Gap, model minus market: +4.5 pp
- Manchester CityModel 8% · Market 4%Market 4%Gap, model minus market: +3.6 pp
- Real MadridModel 6% · Market 7%Market 7%Gap, model minus market: −0.6 pp
US House control 20262 outcomes · largest gap -3.0 pp
US House control 2026
on Polymarket ↗- DemocratsModel 88% · Market 91%Market 91%Gap, model minus market: −3.0 pp
- RepublicansModel 13% · Market 10%Market 10%Gap, model minus market: +3.0 pp
US Senate control 20262 outcomes · largest gap -4.0 pp
US Senate control 2026
on Polymarket ↗- DemocratsModel 60% · Market 64%Market 64%Gap, model minus market: −4.0 pp
- RepublicansModel 41% · Market 37%Market 37%Gap, model minus market: +4.0 pp
Brazil president 20262 outcomes · largest gap -7.0 pp
Brazil president 2026
on Polymarket ↗- F. BolsonaroModel 81% · Market 88%Market 88%Gap, model minus market: −7.0 pp
- LulaModel 20% · Market 13%Market 13%Gap, model minus market: +7.0 pp
Model: the run-off head-to-head our forecast publishes (Bolsonaro v Lula); it does not price a first-round win.
Market prices: Polymarket · As of 13 Oct 2026
Where these stories come from
Each morning the Daily Newsletter Digest reads about fifty newsletters, groups them by theme and records an audio episode. These are the day’s most substantive stories from it, each with a direct link to the original article.
Links open the publisher’s own site, which may ask you to subscribe. The one-line summaries are ours; the reporting is theirs. A place tag links to that metro or country on this site, where the same story appears under In the news.