NRL Elo: 119 years of club strength
One rating per club, rebuilt from the first game of 1908 through to 4 Oct 2026. Every club starts at 1500. Current ratings and the finals picture live on the NRL hub.
Every club through time, 1908 to 2026
Each line is a club's rating at the end of its season, finals included; the dashed line is 1500, where every club starts. It opens on the current top four; add any club, past or present, up to six.
Tap, drag or hover along the chart for each club's rating that season.
Decade by decade, 1900s to 2020s
The average of a club's rating before each of its games in the decade. Blank means the club did not play, or played too little, in those years.
- under 1450
- 1450 to 1499
- 1500 to 1549
- 1550 to 1599
- 1600 and over
- not in the league
Tap a cell or a club for its decade averages.
Greatest seasons, 1908 to 2026
The club-seasons with the highest peak rating, measured after a game, with how each season ended.
| # | Club and season | Peak | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Storm 2021 | 1811 | FinalsFinals |
| 2 |  Panthers 2022 | 1786 | PremiersPremiers |
| 3 | SGSt George 1959 | 1778 | PremiersPremiers |
| 4 | Panthers 2021 | 1772 | PremiersPremiers |
| 5 |  Sea Eagles 1996 | 1767 | PremiersPremiers |
| 6 |  Eels 2001 | 1765 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 7 | Sea Eagles 1995 | 1761 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 8 |  Raiders 1995 | 1761 | FinalsFinals |
| 9 | Storm 2007 | 1758 | PremiersPremiers |
| 10 |  Rabbitohs 2021 | 1758 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 11 | Panthers 2023 | 1754 | PremiersPremiers |
| 12 | Raiders 1994 | 1751 | PremiersPremiers |
| 13 |  Roosters 1975 | 1745 | PremiersPremiers |
| 14 | Storm 2017 | 1745 | PremiersPremiers |
| 15 | SGSt George 1964 | 1744 | PremiersPremiers |
| 16 | Rabbitohs 1927 | 1739 | PremiersPremiers |
| 17 | Roosters 1936 | 1738 | PremiersPremiers |
| 18 | Storm 2020 | 1736 | PremiersPremiers |
| 19 |  Broncos 1998 | 1736 | PremiersPremiers |
| 20 | Storm 2019 | 1734 | FinalsFinals |
Premiers ranked by strength on Grand Final day, 1908 to 2026
Each premiership side by its rating going into the Grand Final (the replay, where there was one), with the side it beat. The 33 seasons without a Grand Final (1908 to 1953) are not ranked.
Strongest premiers
Every premier, strongest first1908 to 2026
Best sides never to win the premiership, 1908 to 2026
The highest season peaks by a club that did not win that year's premiership. 12 of these 20 lost the Grand Final.
| # | Club and season | Peak | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm 2021 | 1811 | FinalsFinals |
| 2 | Eels 2001 | 1765 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 3 | Sea Eagles 1995 | 1761 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 4 | Raiders 1995 | 1761 | FinalsFinals |
| 5 | Rabbitohs 2021 | 1758 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 6 | Storm 2019 | 1734 | FinalsFinals |
| 7 | Sea Eagles 1997 | 1721 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 8 |  Bulldogs 2002 | 1717 | MissedMissed finals |
| 9 | Storm 2022 | 1713 | FinalsFinals |
| 10 | Storm 2008 | 1711 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 11 | Rabbitohs 1969 | 1710 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 12 | Sea Eagles 1983 | 1709 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 13 | Storm 2024 | 1709 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 14 | Roosters 2015 | 1708 | FinalsFinals |
| 15 | Broncos 2001 | 1703 | FinalsFinals |
| 16 | Roosters 2003 | 1703 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 17 | Eels 1977 | 1702 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 18 | Storm 2025 | 1701 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 19 | Panthers 2020 | 1699 | Lost GFLost the Grand Final |
| 20 | Broncos 1996 | 1698 | FinalsFinals |
Biggest upsets, 1908 to 2026
The lowest pre-game win chances that still won, any game. Finals are flagged.
| # | Game | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 to 8, 2023 Round 9 | 8.0% |
| 2 | 28 to 14, 2011 Round 14 | 9.6% |
| 3 | 25 to 24, 2026 Round 25 | 9.9% |
| 4 | 24 to 20, 1996 Round 21 | 10.0% |
| 5 | 34 to 16, 2021 Round 11 | 10.0% |
| 6 | 32 to 18, 1999 Round 17 | 10.2% |
| 7 | 20 to 14, 1972 Round 18 | 10.6% |
| 8 | 22 to 10, 2021 Round 24 | 11.1% |
| 9 | 19 to 18, 1958 Round 14 | 11.3% |
| 10 | 21 to 16, 1995 Round 16 | 11.4% |
| 11 | 14 to 6, 1956 Round 12 | 11.7% |
| 12 | 22 to 10, 2024 Round 13 | 11.7% |
| 13 | 20 to 14, 1996 Round 3 | 11.7% |
| 14 | 20 to 19, 1956 Round 15 | 11.7% |
| 15 | 20 to 12, 2015 Round 5 | 11.8% |
| 16 | 14 to 12, 2026 Round 20 | 11.8% |
| 17 | 22 to 20, 1986 Round 20 | 11.9% |
| 18 | 14 to 10, 1997 Round 12 | 12.0% |
| 19 | 26 to 14, 2012 Round 7 | 12.1% |
| 20 | 21 to 14, 1971 Round 21 | 12.6% |
Longest reigns at No. 1, 1908 to 2026
A reign is an unbroken spell as the top-rated club among those playing that season, checked after each game day. Off-seasons count.
| # | Club and spell | Length | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGSt George 21 Jul 1956 to 16 Sept 1967 | 11.2 years | 232 |
| 2 | Rabbitohs 5 Jul 1924 to 6 Sept 1930 | 6.2 years | 99 |
| 3 | Roosters 9 Jun 1934 to 21 May 1938 | 3.9 years | 59 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs 30 May 1908 to 26 Aug 1911 | 3.2 years | 47 |
| 5 | Roosters 26 Aug 1911 to 22 Aug 1914 | 3.0 years | 46 |
| 6 | BALTigers 17 May 1919 to 29 Apr 1922 | 3.0 years | 35 |
| 7 | BALTigers 17 Jul 1915 to 25 May 1918 | 2.9 years | 37 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs 24 Jun 1950 to 6 Apr 1953 | 2.8 years | 53 |
| 9 | Storm 1 Jul 2016 to 30 Sept 2018 | 2.2 years | 66 |
| 10 | Storm 6 May 2006 to 29 Jun 2008 | 2.1 years | 61 |
| 11 | Sea Eagles 29 Jul 1972 to 21 Jul 1974 | 2.0 years | 47 |
| 12 | Rabbitohs 18 Jul 1953 to 2 Apr 1955 | 1.7 years | 28 |
| 13 | Broncos 20 Feb 2000 to 15 Jun 2001 | 1.3 years | 43 |
| 14 | NSBears 20 May 1922 to 11 Aug 1923 | 1.2 years | 26 |
| 15 | Panthers 12 May 2023 to 26 Jul 2024 | 1.2 years | 35 |
The longest: St George, from 1956 to 1967.
Biggest rises and falls in a season, 1908 to 2026
Change in season-end rating from the previous season's. A club's first season has no previous rating, so it is not counted.
Biggest rises
How the ratings are built, 1908 to 2026
Every club starts at 1500 and each result moves two clubs by the same amount (K of 40), more for an upset and more for a bigger margin. Home ground advantage is 60 points, 100 when the visitor has travelled interstate, and nothing at a neutral site. Between seasons every rating drifts 35 percent back toward 1500. The settings were tuned on 1950 to 2009 and scored on seasons they never saw (2010 to 2025): the favourite wins 64.3% of the time, against 58.2% for always backing the home side, and margin forecasts miss by about 13 points. The Brier score is 0.223 (a coin flip scores 0.250).
Results from Rugby League Project, current season from ESPN.