AFL Elo: 130 years of club strength

Every club through time, 1897 to 2026

Each line is a club's rating at the end of its season, finals included; the dashed line is 1500, where every club starts. It opens on the current top four; add any club, past or present, up to six.

Tap, drag or hover along the chart for each club's rating that season.

Decade by decade, 1890s to 2020s

The average of a club's rating before each of its games in the decade. Blank means the club did not play, or played too little, in those years.

1890s1890

1900s

1910s

1920s1920

1930s

1940s

1950s1950

1960s

1970s

1980s1980

1990s

2000s

2010s2010

2020s

under 1450
1450 to 1499
1500 to 1549
1550 to 1599
1600 and over
not in the league

Tap a cell or a club for its decade averages.

Greatest seasons, 1897 to 2026

The club-seasons with the highest peak rating, measured after a game, with how each season ended.

#	Club and season	Peak	Result	Reached
1	Essendon 2000	1840	PremiersPremiers	21 Jul 2000
2	Collingwood 2011	1833	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	26 Aug 2011
3	Geelong 2008	1823	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	19 Sept 2008
4	Geelong 2011	1813	PremiersPremiers	1 Oct 2011
5	Hawthorn 2013	1812	PremiersPremiers	28 Sept 2013
6	Collingwood 1929	1810	PremiersPremiers	31 Aug 1929
7	Essendon 1950	1788	PremiersPremiers	23 Sept 1950
8	Hawthorn 2014	1785	PremiersPremiers	27 Sept 2014
9	Essendon 2001	1783	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	22 Jul 2001
10	Geelong 2009	1783	PremiersPremiers	28 Jun 2009
11	Hawthorn 2015	1782	PremiersPremiers	15 Aug 2015
12	West Coast 1991	1780	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	25 Aug 1991
13	Hawthorn 1988	1780	PremiersPremiers	24 Sept 1988
14	Hawthorn 2012	1778	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	22 Sept 2012
15	Melbourne 1956	1778	PremiersPremiers	15 Sept 1956
16	Carlton 1995	1776	PremiersPremiers	30 Sept 1995
17	Collingwood 2010	1776	PremiersPremiers	2 Oct 2010
18	Sydney 1935	1775	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	21 Sept 1935
19	Carlton 1987	1773	PremiersPremiers	26 Sept 1987
20	Hawthorn 1989	1773	PremiersPremiers	12 Aug 1989

Premiers ranked by strength on Grand Final day, 1897 to 2026

Each premiership side by its rating going into the Grand Final (the replay, where there was one), with the side it beat. 1897 and 1924 had no Grand Final, so they are not ranked.

Strongest premiers

#	Premiers	Elo	Beat	Score
1	Essendon 2000	1827	Melbourne 1628	135 to 75
2	Hawthorn 2013	1805	Fremantle 1678	77 to 62
3	Geelong 2011	1783	Collingwood 1796	119 to 81
4	Essendon 1950	1777	North Melbourne 1642	92 to 54
5	Collingwood 1929	1774	Richmond 1700	79 to 50
6	Hawthorn 1988	1770	Melbourne 1569	152 to 56
7	Hawthorn 2014	1767	Sydney 1747	137 to 74
8	Melbourne 1956	1762	Collingwood 1671	121 to 48
9	Collingwood 2010	1762	St Kilda 1659	108 to 52
10	Carlton 1995	1760	Geelong 1685	141 to 80

Weakest premiers

#	Premiers	Elo	Beat	Score
128	Melbourne 1900	1509	FITFitzroy 1662	34 to 30
127	FITFitzroy 1916	1518	Carlton 1712	85 to 56
126	Adelaide 1997	1583	St Kilda 1697	125 to 94
125	Collingwood 1958	1585	Melbourne 1717	82 to 64
124	FITFitzroy 1922	1599	Collingwood 1629	79 to 68
123	Essendon 1923	1603	FITFitzroy 1637	63 to 46
122	Hawthorn 1976	1617	North Melbourne 1640	100 to 70
121	Essendon 1912	1621	Sydney 1679	47 to 33
120	FITFitzroy 1904	1621	Carlton 1540	61 to 37
119	Sydney 1909	1629	Carlton 1748	38 to 36

Every premier, strongest first1897 to 2026

Best sides never to win the flag, 1897 to 2026

The highest season peaks by a club that did not win that year's premiership. Most lost the Grand Final.

#	Club and season	Peak	Result	Reached
1	Collingwood 2011	1833	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	26 Aug 2011
2	Geelong 2008	1823	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	19 Sept 2008
3	Essendon 2001	1783	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	22 Jul 2001
4	West Coast 1991	1780	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	25 Aug 1991
5	Hawthorn 2012	1778	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	22 Sept 2012
6	Sydney 1935	1775	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	21 Sept 1935
7	Carlton 1910	1773	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	13 Aug 1910
8	St Kilda 2009	1771	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	8 Aug 2009
9	Geelong 1953	1771	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	25 Jul 1953
10	Hawthorn 1975	1753	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	26 Jul 1975
11	Sydney 1934	1753	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	6 Oct 1934
12	Essendon 1948	1753	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	18 Sept 1948
13	Adelaide 2006	1752	FinalsFinals	21 Jul 2006
14	Carlton 1909	1748	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	25 Sept 1909
15	Carlton 1916	1747	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	19 Aug 1916
16	Sydney 2014	1747	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	19 Sept 2014
17	Richmond 2018	1745	FinalsFinals	6 Sept 2018
18	Melbourne 2022	1743	FinalsFinals	21 May 2022
19	Hawthorn 1987	1740	Lost GFLost the Grand Final	5 Sept 1987
20	Geelong 2010	1739	FinalsFinals	28 Aug 2010

Biggest upsets, 1897 to 2026

The lowest pre-game win chances that still won, any game. Finals are flagged.

#	Game	Chance
1	FremantlebeatHawthorn 106 to 90, 2001 Round 18	5.7%
2	Gold CoastbeatSydney 88 to 64, 2018 Round 18	5.8%
3	West CoastbeatBulldogs 92 to 85, 2023 Round 23	6.2%
4	St KildabeatCarlton 36 to 24, 1910 Round 18	6.3%
5	North MelbournebeatSt Kilda 64 to 59, 2009 Round 21	6.7%
6	St KildabeatEssendon 66 to 55, 1912 Round 8	9.0%
7	St KildabeatBulldogs 46 to 41, 1946 Round 13	9.3%
8	FITFitzroybeatWest Coast 99 to 89, 1991 Round 24	9.3%
9	SydneybeatMelbourne 106 to 97, 1994 Round 9	9.4%
10	SydneybeatNorth Melbourne 113 to 84, 1995 Round 15	9.4%
11	MelbournebeatEssendon 96 to 82, 1924 Round 18	9.5%
12	RichmondbeatMelbourne 68 to 60, 1960 Round 17	9.5%
13	St KildabeatBulldogs 80 to 79, 1956 Round 13	9.7%
14	St KildabeatGeelong 93 to 85, 1995 Round 15	9.7%
15	BulldogsbeatRichmond 77 to 76, 1973 Round 22	10.0%
16	North MelbournebeatRichmond 104 to 84, 1973 Round 4	10.0%
17	West CoastbeatBulldogs 102 to 97, 2009 Round 19	10.1%
18	SydneybeatCollingwood 55 to 29, 1904 Round 3	10.2%
19	St KildabeatGeelong 88 to 83, 1980 Round 19	10.3%
20	Port AdelaidebeatHawthorn 108 to 86, 2015 Round 21	10.7%

Longest reigns at No. 1, 1897 to 2026

A reign is an unbroken spell as the top-rated club among those playing that season, checked after each game day. Off-seasons count.

#	Club and spell	Length	Games
1	Melbourne 13 Aug 1955 to 5 Aug 1961	6.0 years	120
2	Geelong 10 Jun 2007 to 11 Jul 2009	2.1 years	55
3	Carlton 4 May 1907 to 22 May 1909	2.1 years	42
4	Hawthorn 17 Jun 1988 to 3 Jun 1990	2.0 years	47
5	Essendon 20 Aug 1949 to 9 Jun 1951	1.8 years	32
6	Carlton 4 Sept 1915 to 16 Jun 1917	1.8 years	23
7	Collingwood 29 Sept 1928 to 31 May 1930	1.7 years	26
8	Essendon 22 Sept 1984 to 24 May 1986	1.7 years	35
9	Essendon 10 Mar 2000 to 22 Sept 2001	1.5 years	48
10	Hawthorn 14 Apr 2013 to 17 Aug 2014	1.3 years	43
11	Carlton 5 Jun 1909 to 1 Oct 1910	1.3 years	36
12	Geelong 21 Jun 1952 to 29 Aug 1953	1.2 years	31
13	Collingwood 9 Jul 1927 to 8 Sept 1928	1.2 years	28
14	Essendon 23 Jun 1962 to 10 Aug 1963	1.1 years	26
15	Collingwood 18 Apr 1970 to 5 Jun 1971	1.1 years	32

The longest: Melbourne, from 1955 to 1961.

Biggest rises and falls in a season, 1897 to 2026

Change in season-end rating from the previous season's. A club's first season has no previous rating, so it is not counted.

Biggest rises

#	Club and season	Change	Season-end Elo
1	Brisbane 1999	+340	1340 to 1680
2	West Coast 2011	+317	1299 to 1616
3	Melbourne 2000	+285	1334 to 1619
4	Collingwood 1977	+283	1382 to 1665
5	Melbourne 1998	+275	1314 to 1589
6	Adelaide 1997	+272	1351 to 1623
7	Geelong 2007	+262	1496 to 1758
8	GWS 2016	+257	1412 to 1669
9	Essendon 2017	+255	1236 to 1491
10	North Melbourne 1932	+249	1167 to 1416

Biggest falls

#	Club and season	Change	Season-end Elo
1	Carlton 2002	-324	1618 to 1294
2	Melbourne 2019	-289	1645 to 1355
3	Collingwood 1982	-286	1622 to 1336
4	Adelaide 1999	-284	1720 to 1436
5	Melbourne 1951	-280	1574 to 1294
6	Hawthorn 1962	-264	1700 to 1436
7	Geelong 1982	-259	1659 to 1400
8	Richmond 2024	-259	1490 to 1231
9	Melbourne 1999	-255	1589 to 1334
10	Fremantle 2016	-255	1617 to 1362

How the ratings are built, 1897 to 2026

Every club starts at 1500 and each result moves two clubs by the same amount (K of 40), more for an upset and more for a bigger margin. Home ground advantage is 60 points, 100 when the visitor has travelled interstate, and nothing at a neutral site. Between seasons every rating drifts 35 percent back toward 1500. The settings were tuned on 1950 to 2009 and scored on seasons they never saw (2010 to 2025): the favourite wins 68.5% of the time, against 57.0% for always backing the home side, and margin forecasts miss by about 29 points. The Brier score is 0.200 (a coin flip scores 0.250).

Results from Squiggle, with scores checked against AFL Tables. Premierships and Grand Finals come from the game data. Brisbane carries the Bears and the Lions as one club, as the results data does.