Australian Football League

Going into 2027: Elo ratings

Brisbane Lions won the 2026 premiership, beating Fremantle in the Grand Final. Fremantle took the minor premiership.

Our own AFL Elo, through games played to 26 Sept 2026. Change is over each club's last five games. Every club since 1897, the greatest sides and the biggest upsets.

2027 Round 1 predictions

Win chance and expected margin from the ratings below, including home ground advantage.

Match	Chance	Margin
SydneyGeelong Wed 17 Mar, 19:30 · S.C.G.	63%38%	Sydneyby 11
FremantleBulldogs Thu 18 Mar, 17:10 · Perth Stadium	75%25%	Fremantleby 24
HawthornBrisbane Fri 19 Mar, 19:50 · M.C.G.	57%43%	Hawthornby 7
RichmondCarlton Sat 20 Mar, 12:35 · M.C.G.	27%73%	Carltonby 22
AdelaideGWS Sat 20 Mar, 15:45 · Adelaide Oval	72%28%	Adelaideby 21
St KildaCollingwood Sat 20 Mar, 19:40 · M.C.G.	46%54%	Collingwoodby 3
North MelbournePort Adelaide Sun 21 Mar, 13:10 · Docklands	64%36%	North Melbourneby 13
MelbourneEssendon Sun 21 Mar, 15:15 · M.C.G.	82%18%	Melbourneby 34
West CoastGold Coast Sun 21 Mar, 15:10 · Perth Stadium	41%59%	Gold Coastby 8

#	Club	Elo	Last 5
1	Brisbane	1725	+57
2	Geelong	1678	+11
3	Fremantle	1673	-40
4	Sydney	1661	+14
5	Hawthorn	1651	+1
6	Adelaide	1607	+2
7	Carlton	1580	+67
8	Collingwood	1557	-54
9	Bulldogs	1534	-11
10	Melbourne	1532	-2
11	GWS	1507	-27
12	Gold Coast	1460	+6
13	St Kilda	1423	-36
14	Port Adelaide	1384	-38
15	North Melbourne	1383	0
16	Richmond	1218	-11
17	Essendon	1214	-35
18	West Coast	1213	-32

Every club starts at 1500 and each result moves two clubs by the same amount, more for an upset and more for a bigger margin. Home ground advantage is larger when the visitor has flown interstate, absent at neutral sites, and ratings drift back toward the average between seasons. Scored on seasons it never saw (2010 to 2025), it picks the winner 68.5% of the time, against 57.0% for always backing the home side, and its margin forecasts miss by about 29 points.

All-time peaks

#	Club	Peak	Reached
1	Essendon	1840	200021 Jul 2000
2	Collingwood	1833	201126 Aug 2011
3	Geelong	1823	200819 Sept 2008
4	Hawthorn	1812	201328 Sept 2013
5	West Coast	1780	199125 Aug 1991
6	Melbourne	1778	195615 Sept 1956
7	Carlton	1776	199530 Sept 1995
8	Sydney	1775	193521 Sept 1935
9	St Kilda	1771	20098 Aug 2009
10	Brisbane	1768	200228 Sept 2002
11	Adelaide	1752	200621 Jul 2006
12	Richmond	1751	193413 Oct 1934
13	North Melbourne	1736	199925 Sept 1999
14	Port Adelaide	1727	200425 Sept 2004
15	Fremantle	1717	202631 Jul 2026
16	FITFitzroy	1709	191313 Sept 1913
17	GWS	1688	201610 Sept 2016
18	Bulldogs	1684	199928 Aug 1999
19	Gold Coast	1619	20259 Aug 2025
20	UNIUniversity	1575	191023 Jul 1910

One peak per club, measured after a game. Results from Squiggle, with scores checked against AFL Tables. Ratings are rebuilt from 1897 on every refresh.

All-Time Table

Current clubsCurrent + defunct

Sort byClubPremiershipsLastMinorGFsSeasonsWin%largest first

Collingwood

1532-938-27, 130 seasons

16 (last 2023)

0.619

Carlton

1426-1037-34, 130 seasons

16 (last 1995)

0.578

Essendon

1352-1084-35, 128 seasons

16 (last 2000)

0.554

Melbourne

1122-1315-20, 127 seasons

13 (last 2021)

0.461

Richmond

1165-1154-25, 119 seasons

13 (last 2020)

0.502

Hawthorn

1001-1049-15, 102 seasons

13 (last 2015)

0.488

Geelong

1372-1060-23, 127 seasons

10 (last 2022)

0.564

FITFitzroydefunct

810-1004-25, 100 seasons

8 (last 1944)

0.447

Brisbane Lions

334-317-8, 30 seasons

6 (last 2026)

0.513

Sydney Swans

1209-1252-25, 129 seasons

5 (last 2012)

0.491

North Melbourne

878-1168-18, 102 seasons

4 (last 1999)

0.430

West Coast

452-420-5, 40 seasons

4 (last 2018)

0.518

Show all 21 clubs

Club↕	Premierships▼	Last↕	Minor↕	GFs↕	Seasons↕	Record	Win%↕
Collingwood	16	2023	20	43	130	1532-938-27	0.619
Carlton	16	1995	17	29	130	1426-1037-34	0.578
Essendon	16	2000	17	28	128	1352-1084-35	0.554
Melbourne	13	2021	10	18	127	1122-1315-20	0.461
Richmond	13	2020	9	24	119	1165-1154-25	0.502
Hawthorn	13	2015	9	19	102	1001-1049-15	0.488
Geelong	10	2022	15	20	127	1372-1060-23	0.564
FITFitzroydefunct	8	1944	4	13	100	810-1004-25	0.447
Brisbane Lions	6	2026	0	8	30	334-317-8	0.513
Sydney Swans	5	2012	10	19	129	1209-1252-25	0.491
North Melbourne	4	1999	4	9	102	878-1168-18	0.430
West Coast	4	2018	3	7	40	452-420-5	0.518
Adelaide	2	1998	3	3	36	412-373-3	0.525
Western Bulldogs	2	2016	0	4	102	954-1087-23	0.468
Port Adelaide	1	2004	4	2	30	350-304-5	0.535
St Kilda	1	1966	3	7	128	976-1463-26	0.401
Fremantle	0	—	2	2	32	332-368-3	0.474
Greater Western Sydney	0	—	0	1	15	155-170-4	0.477
BBBrisbane Bearsdefunct	0	—	0	0	10	70-146-2	0.326
Gold Coast	0	—	0	0	16	113-236-2	0.325
UNIUniversitydefunct	0	—	0	0	7	27-97-2	0.222

All-time premierships, minor premierships, Grand Final appearances and seasons across the full AFL (and predecessor) history. Win% counts a draw as a half-win.

Grand Finals