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Pro Patria

Heartbreak#6163.1

Busto Arsizio, Milan · Italy · Serie A

Against expectation

Every Italian top-flight match this club has played in the Serie A, scored against the odds an Elo rating gave it before kick-off. Over 12 seasons from 1929-30 to 1955-56 it has fallen short of them by 15.3 match points.

Pro Patria: surplus against expectation, 1929-30 to 1955-561929-30: −2.9 league points vs expected (30 on 32.9, 2 for a win) · bar height −1.5 match points1930-31: −6.9 league points vs expected (23 on 29.9, 2 for a win) · bar height −3.4 match points1931-32: +3.6 league points vs expected (31 on 27.4, 2 for a win) · bar height +1.8 match points1932-33: −5.8 league points vs expected (21 on 26.8, 2 for a win) · bar height −2.9 match points1947-48: +1.6 league points vs expected (36 on 34.5, 2 for a win) · bar height +0.8 match points1948-49: −4.1 league points vs expected (30 on 34.1, 2 for a win) · bar height −2.0 match points1949-50: +1.7 league points vs expected (34 on 32.3, 2 for a win) · bar height +0.8 match points1950-51: +0.3 league points vs expected (34 on 33.7, 2 for a win) · bar height +0.1 match points1951-52: +3.0 league points vs expected (37 on 34.0, 2 for a win) · bar height +1.5 match points1952-53: −7.5 league points vs expected (22 on 29.5, 2 for a win) · bar height −3.7 match points1954-55: −4.8 league points vs expected (21 on 25.8, 2 for a win) · bar height −2.4 match points1955-56: −8.7 league points vs expected (15 on 23.7, 2 for a win) · bar height −4.4 match points
1929-30one bar per season · height in match points · hover for that season1955-56
Best season against expectation
1931-32 +3.6 league pts
31 points on 27.4 expected as Pro Patria
Worst season against expectation
1955-56 8.7 league pts
15 points on 23.7 expected as Pro Patria

Season points use that season’s own scoring, two for a win before 1994-95 and three from it; the bars use match points so the whole series is comparable.The rating only starts telling you much after about 1960. Before that, knowing the era’s home-and-away split is almost as good as knowing the teams.

Milan against expectation →How this is measured →

Greatest games

Pro Patria's top matches by the club Game Score: closeness, stakes, quality and upset over one unified rating of league and European play.All-time board.

#DateStageResultScore
11953-05-31Serie AHL 2-3 v Udinesegame score 70.0
21933-06-25Serie AHW 2-1 v Barigame score 62.0
31949-05-29Serie AHW 3-2 v AC Milangame score 61.1
41953-05-03Serie AAL 2-3 v Novaragame score 58.9
51953-04-05Serie AHL 0-1 v Sampdoriagame score 58.2
61949-04-17Serie AHL 1-2 v Laziogame score 58.0
71952-04-13Serie AAW 2-1 v Palermogame score 56.6
81933-04-16Serie AHL 2-3 v Laziogame score 56.5
91932-04-24Serie AAW 2-1 v Casalegame score 55.9
101949-04-30Serie AAL 3-4 v Juventusgame score 55.5

Footprint

Tiers played
L1
Top-flight (L1) seasons
14
First season
1928
Most recent season
1956

The Heartbreak Index3.1 · #616

The Blessed · Never won it, waiting since 1928

3.1
Heartbreak
#616
of 1,139 clubs
#381
in Football
3.1
agony
The clocks
  • First major trophy since 19286.3
Heaviest wounds

relegated from the top flight, 1953 · relegated from the top flight, 1956 · relegated from the top flight, 1933 · survived a relegation scare, 1949

One formula, every club the site covers. See the whole board →

Season-by-season

Most recent season first. Covers Serie A only. Rows tagged "national playoff" are pre-modern formats where the workbook records only playoff participants, not round-robin standings.

1956
Serie A (1) · P18
34 P · 3-9-22 · 31:87 · -56
15
pts
1955
Serie A (1) · P18
34 P · 6-9-19 · 29:55 · -26
21
pts
1953
Serie A (1) · P18
34 P · 7-8-19 · 40:67 · -27
22
pts
1952
Serie A (1) · P9
38 P · 12-13-13 · 47:62 · -15
37
pts
1951
Serie A (1) · P10
38 P · 14-6-18 · 47:74 · -27
34
pts
1950
Serie A (1) · P11
38 P · 11-12-15 · 50:61 · -11
34
pts
1949
Serie A (1) · P17
38 P · 11-8-19 · 51:61 · -10
30
pts
1948
Serie A (1) · P8
40 P · 17-6-17 · 65:66 · -1
40
pts
1933
Serie A (1) · P18
34 P · 8-5-21 · 46:71 · -25
21
pts
1932
Serie A (1) · P10
34 P · 9-13-12 · 37:55 · -18
31
pts
1931
Serie A (1) · P15
34 P · 8-7-19 · 37:61 · -24
23
pts
1930
Serie A (1) · P12
34 P · 12-6-16 · 46:64 · -18
30
pts
Show all 14 seasons
1929
Divisione Nazionale (1) · P5
30 P · 15-6-9 · 68:52 · +16
36
pts
1928
Divisione Nazionale (1) · P7
20 P · 8-4-8 · 30:34 · -4
20
pts